Pascal Michaillat

About

Pascal Michaillat is a professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. His primary research focus is on economic slack, with a particular emphasis on unemployment. He investigates why unemployment exists, the reasons behind its fluctuations over the business cycle, and how macroeconomic policies should respond to these fluctuations.

Research topics

• Mathematics
• Econometrics
• Macroeconomics
• Economics
• Monetary economics

Selected publications

• u* = √uv

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2022-07-01 · 8 citations

  report1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Critical Values Robust to P-hacking

  The Review of Economics and Statistics · 2024-05-06 · 5 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis-testing theory. We therefore build a model of hypothesis testing that accounts for p-hacking. From the model, we derive critical values such that, if they are used to determine significance, and if p-hacking adjusts to the new significance standards, then spurious significant results do not occur more often than intended. Because of p-hacking, such robust critical values are larger than classical critical values. In…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-07-01 · 2 citations

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Beveridgean Phillips Curve

  arXiv (Cornell University) · 2024-01-23 · 2 citations

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  This paper proposes a new, Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean Phillips curve is based on directed-search pricing under price-adjustment costs. Under directed-search pricing, prices respond to slack instead of marginal costs. The Beveridgean Phillips curve links the inflation gap to the unemployment gap, with the following properties. First, it produces the divine coincidenc…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Critical Values Robust to P-hacking

  RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2020-05-08 · 2 citations

  preprintOpen accessSenior author

  P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis testing theory. As a consequence, significant results are much more common than they are supposed to be when the null hypothesis is in fact true. In this paper, we build a model of hypothesis testing with p-hacking. From the model, we construct critical values such that, if the values are used to determine significance, and if scientists' p-hacking behavior adjusts to the new significance standards, significant results occur…

  OA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Emmanuel Saez

  59 shared

• Camille Landais

  London School of Economics and Political Science

  11 shared

• Kristóf Madarász

  Laser Scan Engineering (United Kingdom)

  10 shared

• Erik Eyster

  University of California, Santa Barbara

  10 shared

• Adam McCloskey

  8 shared

• Andreas Stolcke

  6 shared

• George A. Akerlof

  Chatham House

  5 shared

• Jitendra Malik

  5 shared

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