Marc Lipsitch

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Science · 2020 · 2802 citations

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for th…

Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus

Science · 2021 · 839 citations

Limited initial supply of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine raises the question of how to prioritize available doses. We used a mathematical model to compare five age-stratified prioritization strategies. A highly effective transmission-blocking vaccine prioritized to adults ages 20 to 49 years minimized cumulative incidence, but mortality and years of life lost were minimized in most scenarios when the vaccine was prioritized to adults greater than 60 years ol…

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt

PLoS Computational Biology · 2020 · 626 citations

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using Rt to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of Rt from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize…

Observational research in epidemic settings: a roadmap to reform

BMJ Global Health · 2025-02-01 · 11 citations

Observational studies are critical tools in clinical research and public health response, but challenges arise in ensuring the data produced by these studies are scientifically robust and socially valuable. Resolving these challenges requires careful attention to prioritising the most valuable research questions, ensuring robust study design, strong data management practices, expansive community engagement, and access and benefit sharing of results and research materials. This paper opens with a…

Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data

PLoS Computational Biology · 2025-06-18 · 4 citations

Vaccination against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) generates an antibody response that shows large inter-individual variability. This variability complicates the use of antibody levels as a correlate of protection and the evaluation of population- and individual-level infection risk without access to broad serological testing. Here, we applied a mathematical model of antibody kinetics to capture individual anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody trajectories and to identif…