Steven Bograd

About

Steven J. Bograd is an Adjunct Professor in the Ocean Sciences Department at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a researcher affiliated with NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center. His research interests include climate impacts on marine ecosystems, physical oceanography, fisheries oceanography, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. He holds a B.S. in Physics and Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Arizona, an M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington, and a Ph.D. in Physical Oceanography from the University of British Columbia. His work focuses on understanding the interactions between climate and marine environments, contributing to the scientific knowledge of oceanic and ecosystem dynamics.

Research topics

• Oceanography
• Ecology
• Environmental science
• Geology
• Climatology
• Geography
• Biology
• Computer Science
• Environmental resource management
• Business

Selected publications

• Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

  Nature · 2022 · 222 citations

  to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world's oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occu…

  DOI

• A Dynamically Downscaled Ensemble of Future Projections for the California Current System

  Frontiers in Marine Science · 2021 · 116 citations

  Given the ecological and economic importance of eastern boundary upwelling systems like the California Current System (CCS), their evolution under climate change is of considerable interest for resource management. However, the spatial resolution of global earth system models (ESMs) is typically too coarse to properly resolve coastal winds and upwelling dynamics that are key to structuring these ecosystems. Here we use a high-resolution (0.1°) regional ocean circulation model coupled with a biog…

  DOI

• Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species

  npj Ocean Sustainability · 2025-07-08 · 7 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Climate-driven shifts in species distributions can undermine the effectiveness of protected areas. We present a framework to facilitate climate change adaptation planning by identifying where highly migratory species habitats will persist (climate refugia), emerge (bright spots), disappear (dark spots), or remain unsuitable based on model analysis by 2100. When applied to eight species in the California Current System, we found that, on average, 37% of habitats are expected to be climat…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation

  Nature Climate Change · 2025-11-07 · 5 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength h…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Water column structure influences variability of micronekton distribution and biodiversity in the California Current

  Progress In Oceanography · 2025-08-12 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  • No trend in mixed layer depth (MLD) was found in the 34-year time series. • A shallower MLD was associated with higher relative abundance for 4 species. • Species richness decreased with an increase (deepening) in MLD. • 11 species displayed positive relationships with trawl depth and 6 were negative. Vertical water column characteristics are important features for understanding pelagic species’ distribution patterns, although they are rarely included as covariates in model-based abundance ind…

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Elliott L. Hazen

  NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center

  562 shared

• Michael G. Jacox

  408 shared

• Stephanie Brodie

  University of California, Santa Cruz

  209 shared

• Isaac D. Schroeder

  NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center

  151 shared

• Mercedes Pozo Buil

  University of California, Santa Cruz

  117 shared

• Jarrod A. Santora

  NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center

  115 shared

• Heather Welch

  Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services

  106 shared

• William J. Sydeman

  Farallon Institute

  102 shared

Similar researchers at University of California, Santa Cruz

• Ilan Benjaminh-44
• David Belangerh-34
• Claudie Beaulieuh-30