Roman Krzysztofowicz

About

Roman Krzysztofowicz joined the University of Virginia faculty in 1982, after holding faculty positions at the University of Arizona and MIT. He develops theories and models for probabilistic forecasting and optimal decision making under uncertainty. His teaching includes mathematical modeling, probabilistic reasoning, and human judgment. His Bayesian Forecast-Decision Theory offers a unified framework for the comprehensive and multidisciplinary design and analysis of probabilistic forecast systems coupled with optimal decision systems. This framework has been applied to various problems in hydrology, meteorology, water resources, agriculture, education, and engineering. Dr. Krzysztofowicz is a scholar with expertise in multiple disciplines, having authored a book, over 120 archival articles published in approximately 26 journals, 15 books, 4 encyclopedias, and over 60 other papers. He served as editor-in-chief of the Journal of Hydrology from 1996 to 2007 and as an associate editor for several other journals. He is a frequent plenary speaker at international conferences, has lectured at NATO Advanced Study Institutes, conducted short courses at George Washington University, and provided training courses for senior forecasters of the National Weather Service. Additionally, he has served as an expert on forecasting to the World Meteorological Organization and as a scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. Recognized as an Eminent Engineer of Tau Beta Pi, Dr.…

Research topics

• Artificial Intelligence
• Computer Science
• Economics
• Mathematics
• Econometrics
• Operations research

Selected publications

• Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis at Fine Scales: Statistical Adjustment of Stage IV toward CPC Gauge-Based Analysis

  Journal of Hydrometeorology · 2012-09-18 · 93 citations

  article

  Abstract Two widely used precipitation analyses are the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified global daily gauge analysis and Stage IV analysis based on quantitative precipitation estimate with multisensor observations. The former is based on gauge records with a uniform quality control across the entire domain and thus bears more confidence, but provides only 24-h accumulation at ⅛° resolution. The Stage IV dataset, on the other hand, has higher spatial and temporal resolution, but is subject…

  PublisherDOI

• Generic probability distribution of rainfall in space: the bivariate model

  Journal of Hydrology · 2005-02-02 · 83 citations

  articleSenior authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database

  Weather and Forecasting · 2008-04-01 · 35 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, and a quantile function). The quantification of uncertainty is accomplished via Bayes theorem by extracting and fusing two kinds of information from two different sources: (i) a long sample of the predictand from the National Climatic Data Cent…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Probabilistic flood forecast: Exact and approximate predictive distributions

  Journal of Hydrology · 2014-06-09 · 32 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Bayesian system for probabilistic stage transition forecasting

  Journal of Hydrology · 2004-07-13 · 31 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• New Statistical Techniques for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting - Stage II

  NSF · $742k · 2007–2013

Frequent coauthors

• Coire J. Maranzano

  Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

  9 shared

• H. Herr

  8 shared

• Karen S. Kelly

  8 shared

• Donald R. Davis

  HEC Paris

  7 shared

• Dou Long

  Ludlum Measurements (United States)

  7 shared

• Lucien Duckstein

  4 shared

• Ashley A. Sigrest

  University of Virginia

  4 shared

• Chris Collier

  University of Ontario Institute of Technology

  4 shared

Awards & honors

• Eminent Engineer of Tau Beta Pi
• Witold Wierzbicki Award in structural mechanics
• Presidential Young Investigator Award
• biographee in Marquis "Who's Who in America"
• biographee in Marquis "Who's Who in the South and Southwest"

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