About

Robert MacCoun is the James and Patricia Kowal Professor and Senior Associate Vice Provost for Research at Stanford University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a professor by courtesy of Psychology at Stanford. His research focuses on social influence, collective behavior, law, and public policy, with particular attention to issues related to drug policy, criminal justice, and law enforcement. MacCoun has contributed to understanding the application of psychological science to policing, legitimacy, and effective law enforcement, emphasizing the importance of procedural justice and public trust. He has received honors such as the Open Science Champion Prize from the Center for Open and Reproducible Science in 2024 and the James McKeen Cattell Fellow Award for lifetime contributions to the application of psychology in 2019. MacCoun has served as an editor for the Annual Review of Law & Social Science and has been involved in various academic and policy discussions related to drug laws, public health, and social influence, making significant contributions to the understanding of evidence-based policy and the social dynamics underlying legal and social systems.

Research topics

• Political Science
• Computer Science
• Computer Security
• Psychology
• Law
• Statistics
• Mathematics
• Epistemology
• Internet privacy

Selected publications

• When AI meets counterfactuals: the ethical implications of counterfactual world simulation models

  AI and Ethics · 2025-04-11 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract This paper examines the transformative potential of AI embedded with counterfactual world simulation models (CWSMs). A CWSM uses multimodal evidence, such as the CCTV footage of a road accident, to build a high-fidelity 3D reconstruction of what happened. It can answer causal questions, such as whether the accident happened because the driver was speeding, by simulating what would have happened in relevant counterfactual situations. We sketch a normative and ethical framework that guides and constrains the simulation of counterfactuals. We address the challenge of ensuring fidelity in reconstructions while simultaneously preventing stereotype perpetuation during counterfactual simulations. We anticipate different modes of how users will interact with AI-powered CWSMs and discuss how their outputs may be presented. Finally, we address the prospective applications of CWSMs in the legal domain, recognizing both their potential to revolutionize legal proceedings as well as the ethical concerns they engender. Sketching a new genre of AI, this paper seeks to illuminate the path forward for responsible and effective use of CWSMs.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Law and Psychology

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Standards of proof: theories and evidence

  Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · 2024-08-15

  book-chapter1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Deborah Hensler and the Institute for Civil Justice Striving to Speak Truth to Power in the Tort Reform Debate

  Journal of Tort Law · 2024-10-01

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Anticipating the risks and benefits of counterfactual world simulation models

  2023-11-20 · 2 citations

  preprintOpen access

  This paper examines the transformative potential of Counterfactual World Simulation Models (CWSMs). CWSMs use pieces of multi-modal evidence, such as the CCTV footage or sound recordings of a road accident, to build a high-fidelity 3D reconstruction of the scene. They can also answer causal questions, such as whether the accident happened because the driver was speeding, by simulating what would have happened in relevant counterfactual situations. CWSMs will enhance our capacity to envision alternate realities and investigate the outcomes of counterfactual alterations to how events unfold. This also, however, raises questions about what alternative scenarios we should be considering and what to do with that knowledge. We present a normative and ethical framework that guides and constrains the simulation of counterfactuals. We address the challenge of ensuring fidelity in reconstructions while simultaneously preventing stereotype perpetuation during counterfactual simulations. We anticipate different modes of how users will interact with CWSMs and discuss how their outputs may be presented. Finally, we address the prospective applications of CWSMs in the legal domain, recognizing both their potential to revolutionize legal proceedings as well as the ethical concerns they engender. Anticipating a new type of AI, this paper seeks to illuminate a path forward for responsible and effective use of CWSMs.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• P-hacking

  Oxford University Press eBooks · 2022 · 3 citations

  1st authorCorresponding
  • Computer Science
  • Political Science
  • Computer Security

  Abstract The phenomenon of p-hacking occurs when researchers engage in questionable practices that enable them to report findings as being statistically significant. This chapter offers four models of p-hacking behavior—unconditional, strategic, greedy, and restrained—and explores the implications of each model. The author then discusses the implications of recent reforms (routine replication, preregistration, and blinded data analysis) with respect to these models. It seems clear that the set of behaviors that constitute p-hacking are quite consequential for the validity of our research and the perceived legitimacy of our authority as empirical researchers. The models of p-hacking presented here are speculative, but hopefully help shine light on some of the shadier aspects of empirical social science.

  PublisherDOI

• Standards of Proof: Theories and Evidence

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2022-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Blinding to Remove Biases in Science and Society

  The MIT Press eBooks · 2021 · 10 citations

  1st authorCorresponding
  • Political Science
  • Psychology
  • Political Science
  PublisherDOI

• Institutions Promoting or Countering Deliberate Ignorance

  The MIT Press eBooks · 2021 · 6 citations

  • Political Science
  • Political Science
  • Law
  PublisherDOI

• Arguing over Algorithms

  Cambridge University Press eBooks · 2020-10-19

  book-chapterSenior author

  The problem we address in this chapter is easy enough to state: Relatively simple algorithms, when duplicated many-fold and arrayed in parallel, produce systems capable of generating highly creative and nuanced solutions to real-world challenges. The catch is that the autonomy and architecture that make these systems so powerful also makes them difficult to control or even understand.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Peter Reuter

  57 shared

• Norbert L. Kerr

  Michigan State University

  24 shared

• Peter Reuter

  University of Maryland, College Park

  20 shared

• Rosalie Liccardo Pacula

  University of Southern California

  19 shared

• Beau Kilmer

  18 shared

• Jonathan P. Caulkins

  Carnegie Mellon University

  16 shared

• Deborah R. Hensler

  13 shared

• Patricia A. Ebener

  RAND Corporation

  13 shared

Education

• Ph.D., Psychology

  Michigan State University

  1984

Awards & honors

• Open Science Champion Prize, Center for Open and Reproducibl…
• James McKeen Cattell Fellow Award for lifetime contributions…