Robert M. DeConto
· Professor, Director, School of Earth & SustainabilityVerifiedUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst · Geography
Active 1993–2026
About
Robert M. DeConto is a professor and the Director of the School of Earth & Sustainability at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, within the Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences. His research focuses on polar climate change, the response of ice sheets to a warming climate, and coastal impacts of sea-level rise. He studies how ice sheets respond to climate change and the implications for sea-level rise and coastal environments. DeConto serves on international science advisory boards and is a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). His professional background includes research positions at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He holds a PhD from the University of Colorado, obtained in 1996, and his work contributes significantly to understanding climate dynamics, glaciology, and sea-level change.
Research topics
- Geology
- Oceanography
- Environmental science
- Climatology
- Paleontology
- Computer Science
- Biology
- Earth science
- Geography
- Physics
- Atmospheric sciences
- Ecology
- Astrobiology
- Environmental resource management
- Physical geography
- Fishery
Selected publications
North American ice sheet persistence into past interglacials should inform future projections
Nature Communications · 2026-03-06 · 1 citations
articleOpen accessSenior authorHow fast future sea level rises will depend on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to warming. AIS projections are shaped by the assumption that sea-level peaks during past interglacials occurred after the North American ice sheet complex (NAIS) disappeared. We synthesize evidence from paleoceanography and allied disciplines to argue that NAIS persisted into some of the warmest interglacials of the last million years. We show that overlooking NAIS persistence may lead to underestimation of AIS sensitivity to warming, and propose that this paradigm shift opens research avenues that can increase confidence in the accuracy of climate and sea-level projections. Sea level projections are shaped by the tenet that the North American Ice Sheet (NAIS) melted prior to past interglacial sea level peaks. This piece argues that NAIS persisted into past interglacials, which amplifies Antarctic sensitivity to warming.
Deglaciation of the Prudhoe Dome in northwestern Greenland in response to Holocene warming
Nature Geoscience · 2026-01-05
articleThe cryosphere · 2026-05-22
articleOpen accessAbstract. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise is accelerating and there is an urgent need to characterize which sectors of the ice sheet are the most vulnerable. Estimating the volume of Greenland ice that was lost during past warm periods can support efforts to constrain the ice sheet's response to future warming. Sub-ice sediment and bedrock, retrieved from deep ice core campaigns or targeted drilling efforts, yield critical and direct information about past ice-free conditions. However, it is challenging to scale the few available sub-ice point measurements to the geometry of the entire ice sheet. Here, we provide a framework for assessing sea-level potential, which we define within an ensemble of ice-sheet model simulations as the amount the GrIS has contributed to sea level when a particular location in Greenland is ice free. An assessment of dominant sources of uncertainty in our paleo ice-sheet modelling, including climate forcing, ice-sheet initialization, and solid-Earth properties, reveals spatial patterns in the sensitivity of the ice sheet to these processes and related feedbacks. We find that the sea-level potential of central Greenland is most sensitive to lithospheric feedbacks and ice-sheet initialization, whereas the ice-sheet margins are most sensitive to climate forcing parameters. We map the GrIS response to warming, in order to (1) estimate of the region(s) of GrIS that likely contributed to the first meter(s) of global sea-level change across a range of plausible deglaciation scenarios, (2) guide future sub-glacial access efforts that can provide targeted information about the response of the ice sheet to past warming, and (3) contextualize existing and future datasets within a glaciologically coherent, full-geometry framework to establish the minimum GrIS contribution to past sea level when a particular location is ice-free. Through our ensemble approach, we can assign a plausible range of GrIS contributions to global sea level for deglaciated conditions at any site. Our results identify primarily areas in southwest Greenland, and secondarily north Greenland, as best-suited for subglacial access drilling that seeks to constrain the response of the ice sheet to past and future warming.
Tectonic Influence on the Greenland Ice Sheet
NSF Seismological Facility for the Advancement of Geoscience (SAGE) · 2026-04-23
datasetOpen accessSenior authorMy colleagues and I are resubmitting our TIGRIS proposal, which would involve deploying 15 stations near Kangerlussuaq Glacier in eastern Greenland. The stations would be in the field for two years (installed in Summer 2025, serviced in 2026, decommissioned in 2027), and 3-component, polar-rated broadband instruments with associated data loggers (either 3-channel or multi-channel) would be needed for the array. I've also spoken with Kirsten Arnell about co-locating two of our stations with the high-tilt-tolerant Certis instruments that the EPIC will soon receive. This will help ensure good quality data is collected at these potential high-melt-rate sites and will also help to field-test the instruments. Data recorded by TIGRIS will be combined with that from previously and currently operating stations in Greenland and Iceland to develop new high-resolution Earth structure models for all of Greenland. These results will then be used to model how solid-Earth characteristics influence ice-sheet hysteresis and to determine the critical thresholds for ice-sheet recovery under different climate forcing scenarios.
Frontiers in Science · 2025-09-09 · 21 citations
articleOpen accessFossil-fuel burning is heating the planet with catastrophic consequences for its habitability and for the natural world on which our existence depends. Halting global warming requires rapid and deep decarbonization to “net zero” carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, which needs to be achieved by 2050 if warming is to remain within the limits set out by the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, some scientists and engineers claim that a mid-century decarbonization target will not be reached, and they propose that we should focus on technological geoengineering “fixes” or “climate interventions” that could delay or mask some of the impacts of global warming. They often cite the need to slow warming in polar regions because they are experiencing rates of warming higher than the global average, with severe and irreversible projected consequences both locally (e.g., on fragile ecosystems) and globally (e.g., on sea level). Several geoengineering concepts exist for polar regions, but they have not been fully examined by the polar science community, nor integrated with an understanding of polar dynamics and responses. Here, we evaluate five of those polar geoengineering concepts and highlight the significant issues and risks relating to technological availability, logistical feasibility, cost, predictable adverse consequences, environmental damage, scalability (in space and time), governance, and ethics. According to our expert assessment, none of these geoengineering ideas pass scrutiny regarding their use in the coming decades. Instead, we find that the proposed concepts would be environmentally dangerous. It is clear to us that the assessed approaches are not feasible, and that further research into these techniques would not be an effective use of limited time and resources. It is vital that these ideas do not distract from the priority to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or from the critical need to conduct fundamental research in the polar regions.
North American ice sheet persistence during past warm periods should inform future projections
2025-04-23
preprintOpen accessSenior authorHow fast sea level rises in the next century will depend on how fast the Antarctic Ice Sheet responds to warming. Projections of future Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior are shaped by the assumption that peak sea level during past warm periods occurred after ice sheets had disappeared from North America. Here we present emerging evidence from paleoceanography and allied disciplines to argue that North American ice sheets endured well into some of the warmest interglacials of the last million years. We begin by reviewing the evidence for North American ice sheets persistence during past warm periods. We then show that overlooking this feature of past interglacials may lead projections of future ice sheet mass loss to systematically underestimate Antarctic Ice Sheet sensitivity to future warming. Finally, we propose that this paradigm shift opens avenues for future research that will increase confidence in the accuracy of climate and sea level projections.
Science Advances · 2025-06-13 · 5 citations
articleOpen accessSenior authorRapid, millennial-scale changes in sea level have been proposed for the beginning, middle, and/or end of the Last Interglacial (LIG) [~129 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. Each of these scenarios has different implications for polar ice sheet behavior in a warming world. Here, we present a suite of 230 Th ages for fossil corals in the Seychelles within a detailed sedimentary and stratigraphic context to evaluate the evolution of sea level during this past warm period. The rise to peak sea level at ~122 to 123 ka was punctuated by two abrupt stratigraphic discontinuities, defining three distinct generations of reef growth. We attribute the evidence of episodic reef growth and ephemeral sea-level fall to the competing influence of Northern Hemisphere ice melt and Antarctic ice regrowth. Asynchronous ice sheet contributions would mask the full extent of retreat for individual ice sheets during the LIG and imply greater temperature sensitivity of ice sheets than previously inferred.
Holocene deglaciation of Prudhoe Dome, northwest Greenland
2025-05-15 · 1 citations
preprintOpen accessProjections of future sea-level rise benefit from understanding the response of past ice sheets to interglacial warmth. Constraints on the extent of inland Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) recession during the Middle Holocene (~8 – 4 ka) are limited because geological records of a smaller-than-modern phase largely remain beneath the modern ice sheet. We drilled through 509 m of firn and ice at Prudhoe Dome (PD), northwest Greenland to obtain sub-ice material yielding direct evidence for the response of the NW GrIS to Holocene warmth. Our infrared stimulated luminescence measurements from sub-ice sediments indicates that the ground below the summit was exposed to sunlight at 7.1 ± 1.1 ka. This complete deglaciation of PD, coeval to reduced extent at other ice caps across Northern Greenland, is further supported by interglacial-only δ18O values from the PD ice column as well as ice depth-age modeling. Our results point to a significant response of the NW GrIS to early Holocene warming, estimated to be +3–5 ℃ from paleoclimate data. This range of summer temperatures is similar to projections of warming by 2100 CE.
Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level
Nature Communications · 2025-10-29 · 3 citations
articleOpen accessImperfect understanding of ice sheet-climate interactions poses challenges for projecting the impacts of ice sheet mass loss on future climate and sea level. Here we couple a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet model and global climate model to simulate ice sheet-climate interactions. In our single-model, single-member modeling framework, we find sea level and climate projections are significantly modified from uncoupled simulations neglecting Antarctic meltwater under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Antarctic meltwater yields surface air temperatures up to 1.5 °C higher in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, while broadly dampening temperature rise in the Southern Hemisphere. Due to radiative feedback changes, both emissions scenarios have global mean surface temperature warming ~0.3 °C lower in the coupled scenario than the control by 2100, with a maximum anomaly of ~1 °C at 2200 under RCP8.5. This slows Antarctica's contribution to global mean sea level rise. Total Antarctic sea level contributions under RCP8.5 (2100: ~0.3 m, 2200: >3 m) include substantial contributions from East Antarctica, though not under RCP4.5 (2100: ~0.1 m, 2200: >1 m). Regionally, projected sea level is up to 0.9 m higher in the Pacific than the global mean Antarctic contribution under RCP8.5 at 2200.
Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets
Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-05-20 · 24 citations
reviewOpen accessSenior authorMass loss from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now represents the dominant source of global mean sea-level rise from the cryosphere. This has raised concerns about their future stability and focussed attention on the global mean temperature thresholds that might trigger more rapid retreat or even collapse, with renewed calls to meet the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement and limit warming to +1.5 °C above pre-industrial. Here we synthesise multiple lines of evidence to show that +1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. To avoid this requires a global mean temperature that is cooler than present and which we hypothesise to be closer to +1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower, but further work is urgently required to more precisely determine a 'safe limit' for ice sheets.
Recent grants
NSF · $184k · 2014–2017
Group travel to the Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS) 2017 Conference, Trieste, Italy
NSF · $16k · 2017–2018
NSF · $490k · 2006–2012
NSF · $603k · 2017–2022
NSFGEO-NERC Pliocene Sea Level Amplitudes (PLIOAMP)
NSF · $295k · 2020–2025
Frequent coauthors
- 136 shared
David Pollard
Pennsylvania State University
- 45 shared
Mark Pagani
Yale University
- 45 shared
T. Naish
Victoria University of Wellington
- 37 shared
Zhonghui Liu
University of Hong Kong
- 35 shared
Julie Brigham‐Grette
- 34 shared
Ann Pearson
Harvard University
- 34 shared
Matthew Huber
Purdue University System
- 34 shared
Henk Brinkhuis
Utrecht University
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