About

Professor Qinghua Ding is a faculty member in the Department of Geography at UC Santa Barbara, specializing in Atmospheric & Climate Science. His research focuses on tropical-extratropical teleconnection, large-scale atmosphere/ocean interaction, polar climate variability, paleoclimate, climate change, seasonal prediction, and coupled climate modeling. Professor Ding's work encompasses understanding the complex interactions between atmospheric and oceanic systems across different spatial and temporal scales, contributing to the broader knowledge of climate dynamics and variability. His expertise includes studying the mechanisms driving climate variability in both tropical and polar regions, as well as developing models to predict seasonal climate patterns and assess climate change impacts.

Research topics

• Geology
• Climatology
• Environmental science
• Atmospheric sciences
• Oceanography
• Geography
• Meteorology

Selected publications

• Regional drying over the Western U.S. driven by enhanced atmospheric subsidence amid global moistening from 1980 to 2020

  Nature Communications · 2026-04-16

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  As the global climate has warmed anthropogenically over the past decades, the atmosphere across most of the globe has experienced significant moistening, except for a "moistening hole" (MH) -like change over the Western U.S. This regional anomaly since 1980 is at odds with the forced response of climate models to global warming in this region. Here, through analysis of a wide array of observations and water-tagging enabled simulations, we find that atmospheric forcing originating from the North Pacific contributes to the MH. A barotropic high-pressure circulation trend over the North Pacific, driven by observed sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific, enhances atmospheric sinking over the Western U.S. through equatorward cold air advection. This intensified atmospheric descent suppresses precipitation and weakens land-sourced evaporation, which are critical for replenishing atmospheric moisture in the region. We suggest that focusing on low-frequency changes of atmospheric vertical motion may offer insights into assessing and projecting climate stress and drought risks posed by long-term atmospheric moisture deficits in arid regions.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Winter Precipitation Predictions in the Contiguous United States: Challenges for Two Seasonal Forecast Models, SEAS5 and CFSv2

  Journal of Climate · 2025-07-16

  article

  Abstract Significant dynamical control of three seasonal-mean large-scale circulation modes, known as the Pacific–North American (PNA), West, and South modes, on winter precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS), through regulating atmospheric river (AR) frequency, is evident in reanalysis. The PNA mode affects changes in precipitation and the frequency of ARs over the Pacific Northwest, Midwest United States, and Florida, while the West and South modes influence the western and southern United States, respectively. The capability of operational seasonal forecast models to replicate these modes remains unclear, and evaluating their skill in this specific aspect is our primary goal. To achieve this, two operational model ensembles, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ fifth generation seasonal forecast system (SEAS5) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are assessed to gauge their overall skill in forecasting the observed compound effects of large-scale circulation and ARs on CONUS winter precipitation. We find that the two models, initialized on 1 December, are able to capture some spatial features of the observed modes during December–February (DJF). However, they fail to reproduce their temporal variations, especially those associated with the West mode, because in reality, it is directly driven by barotropic instability related to the subtropical jet stream over the North Pacific. This inherent limitation, arising from the West mode’s insensitivity to slowly varying sea surface temperature changes, constrains models’ skill in DJF precipitation forecasts over the western United States. Significance Statement We evaluate the performance of two seasonal forecast systems in predicting the leading three large-scale circulation modes across the contiguous United States, given their crucial role in shaping winter precipitation variations by modulating atmospheric river activity. The West mode significantly impacts winter precipitation variability over the western United States (U.S.), while both models struggle to accurately forecast its observed variations and thus perform poorly in predicting western U.S. precipitation. This difficulty results from the internal origin of the West mode. These factors indicate that western U.S. precipitation may be highly unpredictable in the setting of current seasonal forecasts, reflecting both the inherently limited predictability of precipitation over the region and the models’ biases in simulating the internal characteristics of the West mode.

  PublisherDOI

• Unraveling Arctic Sea Ice Response to Atmospheric Rivers—Insights From Sea Ice Modeling

  Geophysical Research Letters · 2025-04-23 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter can induce significant melting of sea ice as they approach the ice cover. However, due to the complex physical properties of sea ice, the specific processes within the ice pack that are responsible for its response to ARs remain poorly understood. This study aims to shed light on this question using a stand‐alone sea ice model forced by observed atmospheric boundary conditions. The findings reveal that the AR induced ice melt and hindered ice growth in the marginal seas are attributed to a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic processes. The AR‐wind transports ice floes from the marginal seas back to the central Arctic dynamically, resulting in a thickening of the ice cover in that region. Among the thermodynamic processes, reduced congelation growth (54%–56%), enhanced basal melting (17%–26%), and inhibited snow‐ice formation (11%–21%) play major roles in the sea ice loss in the marginal seas.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Changing dynamics of the North Polar Ocean - Ice System

  2025-11-04

  articleOpen access

  The Arctic is a prime example of global climate change, experiencing shifts on an unparalleled scale. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on long-term changes and variations—both historical and projected—in the oceanic and sea ice components of the Arctic climate system. Using observations and modeling results, it examines the role of climate variability modes, from multidecadal to seasonal time scales, in shaping the Arctic climate. Emphasis is placed on the interconnectivity between Arctic system components, with a focus on feedbacks (including newly emerging ones), pathways, and processes that link long-term changes and variations in the oceanic and sea ice systems. The review also explores the relationships of Arctic climate change and variability with atmospheric forcing and sub-Arctic regions. It provides a critical assessment of the roles of natural variability and human-induced climate change, as well as projections for the future. Understanding these changes and their drivers is crucial for assessing the Arctic’s role in the global climate system.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Water Isotope Model Intercomparison Project (WisoMIP): Present-day Climate

  2025-07-23

  preprintOpen access

  We present the first results of the Water Isotope Model Intercomparison Project (WisoMIP), with Phase 1 focused on modern simulations (1979–2023) from a suite of isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models nudged to ERA5 reanalyses. Water sources, mixing, and rainout history influence the isotopic composition of vapor and precipitation, making these simulations powerful tools for tracing the global water cycle. By prescribing identical winds, sea surface temperatures, and sea ice conditions, we isolate differences in water isotope behavior across models, controlling for variability in atmospheric dynamics and mean climate. Our analyses show that the ensemble mean best matches observations, as individual model errors cancel out to yield a more accurate representation of Earth’s isotope distributions. We also evaluate trends and responses to major climate modes during the recent warming period, highlighting regional and temporal sensitivities in the isotope signals. These diagnostics extend beyond traditional model evaluation metrics (e.g., temperature, precipitation) to reveal uncertainties in physical processes and guide improvements in model parameterizations. The resulting modern nudged ensemble dataset serves as a benchmark for isotope-enabled model development, satellite product comparison, and understanding of water cycle changes in a warming climate. Given its standardized design and broad participation, WisoMIP provides a valuable “isotope reanalysis’ product for applications ranging from paleoclimate reconstruction to model tuning. Our work demonstrates the importance of coordinated isotope model evaluation in advancing the use of water isotopes as a diagnostic tool in climate science.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

  Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-12-03

  articleOpen access

  Abstract The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlantic

  Climate Dynamics · 2025-11-01

  article
  PublisherDOI

• Advancing Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction under Global Change: Progress, Challenges, and Outlook

  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · 2025-07-25 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Comment on egusphere-2024-925

  2024-06-19

  peer-reviewOpen accessCorresponding

  <strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Today&rsquo;s Arctic is characterized by a lengthening of the sea ice melt season, but also by fast and at times unseasonal melt events. Such anomalous melt cases have been identified in Pacific and Atlantic Arctic sector sea ice studies. Through observational analyses, we document an unprecedented, simultaneous marginal ice zone melt event in the Bering Sea and Labrador Sea in March of 2023. Taken independently, variability in the cold season ice edge at synoptic time scales is common. However, such anomalous, short-term ice loss over either region <em>during the climatological sea ice maxima</em> is uncommon, and the tandem ice loss that occurred qualifies this as a rare event. The atmospheric setting that supported the unseasonal melt events was preceded by a sudden stratospheric warming event that, along with ongoing La Ni&ntilde;a teleconnections, led to positive tropospheric height anomalies across much of the Arctic and the development of anomalous mid-troposphere ridges over the ice loss regions. These large-scale anticyclonic centers funneled extremely warm and moist airstreams onto the ice causing melt. Further analysis identified the presence of atmospheric rivers within these warm airstreams whose characteristics likely contributed to this bi-regional ice melt event. Whether such a confluence of anomalous wintertime events associated with troposphere-stratosphere coupling may occur more often in a warming Arctic remains a research area ripe for further exploration.

  PublisherDOI

• Influences of Large-Scale Circulation and Atmospheric Rivers on U.S. Winter Precipitation beyond ENSO

  Journal of Climate · 2024-06-18 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract This study aims to understand the underlying mechanism of large-scale circulation control on atmospheric rivers (ARs) and precipitation variability across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in winter. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), known as a key driver of global circulation, has shown a modest impact on CONUS precipitation, prompting us to focus our attention on other climate drivers. Here, we find that barotropic instability over the exit region of the North Pacific subtropical jet stream plays a critical role in forming a downstream stationary Rossby wave train during winter (referred to as the West Mode). This wave pattern influences CONUS precipitation by affecting AR activity and explains approximately 50% of rainfall changes in the western United States, as well as numerous extreme wet and drought years along the West Coast, such as the wet winter in 2022/23. Over the past eight decades, the West Mode exhibited limited sensitivity to both sea surface temperature (SST) and increasing anthropogenic forcing and was more influential in shaping interannual and interdecadal CONUS precipitation variabilities than ENSO. This result may explain why ENSO alone can only account for a limited portion of CONUS precipitation variability, thereby imposing an inherent constraint on the precision of seasonal predictions of CONUS precipitation made by climate models. Due to the significance of the West Mode in governing precipitation variability over the western United States, winter precipitation in that region may possess some resilience to the effects of global warming in the coming decades, as supported by large ensemble simulations driven by projected radiative forcing. Significance Statement To better understand how large-scale circulation shapes precipitation within the contiguous United States (CONUS), we identify at least two leading circulation modes in winter that together explain almost 70% of CONUS precipitation in the western United States and 30% in the central and eastern United States. One of these modes is a well-known teleconnection modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the other reflects internal variability related to jet stream dynamics. However, this internal mode is more critical than the ENSO-driven one in regulating precipitation changes through mediating atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the CONUS, particularly in the West. This finding suggests that precipitation changes over the CONUS are partly governed by internal circulation dynamics and thus exhibit less susceptibility to global warming in the decades to come.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Recent grants

• Collaborative Research: Arctic sea ice variability: Remote drivers and local processes

  NSF · $342k · 2018–2022

Frequent coauthors

• Eric J. Steig

  University of Washington

  65 shared

• Bin Wang

  University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

  61 shared

• David S. Battisti

  University of Washington

  28 shared

• Dániel Topál

  26 shared

• Ian Baxter

  21 shared

• Marcel Küttel

  Earth and Space Research

  18 shared

• Axel Schweiger

  University of Washington

  16 shared

• Yutian Wu

  13 shared

Labs

• Qinghua Ding's LabPI

  Not provided

Education

• Ph.D.

  University of Hawaii

  2008