About

Paul M. Vaaler is a Professor in Business Analytics and Information Systems at the Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota. He holds the Curtis L. Carlson Chair and serves as the Academic Director of the Carlson Analytics Lab. His expertise encompasses data analysis techniques, predictive analytics, programming, data engineering, and machine learning methods, contributing to the development of emerging data science professionals. Vaaler's work is closely affiliated with the Carlson School's MS in Business Analytics program and the Carlson Analytics Lab, where graduate students apply their skills to real business problems, supported by partner organizations. He is part of a team of university faculty scholars from across the Carlson School and beyond, bringing expertise in fields such as computer science, econometrics, strategy, and causal experimentation. His role involves fostering engagement and impact through analytics-driven initiatives, supporting the educational mission of the institute, and advancing research in business analytics and information systems.

Research topics

• Political Science
• Law
• Business

Selected publications

• Populist politics and international business policy: problems, practices, and prescriptions for MNEs

  Journal of International Business Policy · 2024-02-02 · 12 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Refugee Remittances and Transnational Entrepreneurship in Less Developed Countries

  Academy of Management Proceedings · 2024-07-09

  articleSenior author

  Refugees living abroad due to discrimination or physical danger represent a growing share of the world's migrants, yet we know little about their potential to assist households and communities back home as transnational entrepreneurs. We respond with the first broad-sample statistical study of migrant remittance effects on new business and community investment in less-developed countries with significant refugee populations. Panel data and related analyses show that remittances from migrant diasporas with higher refugee shares diminish positive new business but magnify positive community investment indicators suggesting that refugee money and ideas matter more for social rather than commercial entrepreneurship back home.

  PublisherDOI

• Private international law

  Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · 2024-02-01 · 8 citations

  book-chapter1st authorCorresponding

  As a field, private international law (PIL) defies easy definition. For some, PIL refers to nearly any legal rule or practice governing the structure of cross-border transactions, while for others PIL is more clearly drawn about private contracting rules, particularly as they apply to cross-border investment. Any definition typically accounts for the sources used by focal actors, typically lawyers in private practice advising MNE clients or the chief in-house lawyers within MNEs. Defining the PIL field means defining the range of distinctive legal rules and practices consulted in that advisory role.

  PublisherDOI

• Theorizing international business in Africa: A roadmap

  Journal of International Business Policy · 2023-11-02 · 18 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia

  Academy of Management Proceedings · 2023-07-24

  articleSenior author

  Research on politically motivated, often violent unrest (unrest) and sovereign risk (risk) overlooks how unrest location may matter for risk in geographically extensive states. We study Tsarist Russia to assess differences in risk effects when unrest occurs in Russian homeland versus more remote imperial territories. Analyses of 238 unrest events from 1820-1914 suggest that risk increases more for unrest in imperial territories. Echoing current events, we find that unrest in imperial Ukraine increases risk most. The price of empire included apparently higher costs in projecting force farther to repress unrest and retain the confidence of foreign investors financing that repression.

  PublisherDOI

• The Right-Wing Shift: Political Populism, Partisanship, and Foreign Investment Risk in Europe

  Academy of Management Proceedings · 2023-07-24

  articleSenior author

  Management research provides little guidance about when and how host-country politics influenced by nationalist, anti-elite populist parties affect foreign investment risk. In response, we develop and test hypotheses derived from a framework grounded in political risk theories assuming that foreign investors are more vulnerable to opportunistically adverse actions by host-country governments, but when led by right-wing parties typically espousing pro-investor policy preferences such actions are less likely. We propose that greater influence in host-country policy-making by right-wing populist parties counters pro-investor with anti-foreign policy preferences, thus raising risks of opportunistically adverse actions by host-country governments against foreign investors specifically. We find support for our proposal in analyses of 596 investment projects announced in 27 European countries from 1990-2020. Projects announced in countries with governments led by right-wing or centrist parties exhibit decreased risk measured as the percentage of equity comprising all project capital funding on announcement date. On the other hand, projects announced in countries with increasing vote percent and increasing legislative seats for right-wing populist parties exhibit increased risk, but only when led by foreign sponsors.

  PublisherDOI

• Empire building has always come at an economic cost for Russia – from the days of the czars to Putin’s Ukraine invasion

  2023-10-13

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Electing to Defer: Political Real Options and Project Investment Financing Trends Around the World

  Academy of Management Proceedings · 2023-07-24

  articleSenior author

  Competitive elections create temporary policy uncertainty with alternative outcomes that can help or hurt investors leading large infrastructure projects substantially reliant on debt financing. We develop a framework grounded in real options theory to explain when those investors are more or less likely to defer project financing until after an election primarily based on two factors: 1) project investor motive—the election is close with a potentially beneficial switch in governing parties and partisan policies; and 2) project investor opportunity—there is a substantial demand for project output, thus assuaging concerns of pre-emption by competitors. We find support for these and other framework assumptions in financing decisions for 3,030 projects announced in 80 countries holding 269 national competitive elections from 1998-2020. We advance strategy research and related practice and public policy debates with a “political real options” framework and broad-sample statistical evidence to guide understanding of infrastructure investment decision making during constitutionally mandated moments of policy uncertainty.

  PublisherDOI

• Legal leapfrogging? Legal system and rule of law effects on cross-listing to bond by emerging-market firms

  Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · 2023-10-17

  book-chapter

  International management researchers commonly assume that firm location is defined by where it operates, but firms may also change relevant corporate governance standards–engage in legal "leapfrogging"–by cross-listing shares in foreign countries where they have little or no operational presence. We ask why and how firms from emerging-market countries leapfrog legally to the US through cross-listing that "bonds" them to US laws offering stronger protection to investors, particularly minority shareholding investors, and thereby fostering better managerial oversight, broader firm ownership, greater liquidity, and lower capital costs. We develop a cross-level theoretical framework to explain emerging-market firm tendencies to leapfrog legally as a function of three factors: (1) a firm's home-country legal system; (2) a firm's home-country rule of law strength; and (3) a firm's growth options. Analyses of US cross-listing tendencies from 1996 to 2007 among 7,453 firms from 22 emerging-market countries suggests that weaker home-country legal protection and more firm growth opportunities render shifts in legal presence more likely. Our findings highlight the importance of broadening research about how and why firms vary location non-operationally as well as understanding how country-level institutions and firm-level characteristics influence such moves individually and in combination. That broadening would especially benefit business research on Africa, where countries offering weaker legal protection stunt domestic access to capital vital to domestic firms with high growth potential.

  PublisherDOI

• Do US State Breach Notification Laws Decrease Firm Data Breaches?

  Review of Law & Economics · 2023-11-01 · 4 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract From 2003 to 2018, all 50 states and the District of Columbia enacted breach notification laws (BNLs) mandating that firms suffering data breaches provide timely notification to affected persons and others about breach incidents and mitigation responses. BNLs were supposed to decrease data breaches and develop a market for data privacy where firms could strike their preferred balance between data security quality and cost. We find no systemic evidence for either supposition. Results from two-way difference-in-difference analyses indicate no decrease in data breach incident counts or magnitudes after BNLs are enacted. Results also indicate no longer-term decrease in data misuse after breaches. These non-effects appear to be precisely estimated nulls that persist for different firms, time-periods, data-breach types, and BNL types. Apparently inconsistent notification standards and inadequate information dissemination to the public may explain BNL ineffectiveness. An alternative federal regime may address these shortcomings and let a national BNL achieve goals state BNLs have apparently failed to meet.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Lorraine Eden

  Texas A&M University

  29 shared

• Michael Cummings

  25 shared

• Burkhard N. Schrage

  24 shared

• Gerry McNamara

  Michigan State University

  23 shared

• Kathy Lund Dean

  Gustavus Adolphus College

  17 shared

• Ruth V. Aguilera

  16 shared

• Barclay E. James

  St. Mary's University, Texas

  16 shared

• Ricardo Flores

  13 shared

Education

• PhD/Strategic Management, Strategic Management & Organization

  University of Minnesota System

  1996

• JD Law

  Harvard Law School

  1988

• MA/Philosophy, Politics & Economics, Worcester College (Rhodes Scholar)

  University of Oxford

  1985

• BA/History, History

  Carleton College

  1983

Awards & honors

• Academy of International Business Fellow, 2020-Present
• Fulbright Scholar (South Africa), 2019-2020
• Sanjaya Lall Visiting Professor of Business & Development (O…