Paul M. Robertson
VerifiedUniversity of California, Irvine · Physics & Astronomy
Active 1955–2026
Research topics
- Computer Science
- Astronomy
- Algorithm
- Astrobiology
- Geology
- Astrophysics
- Physics
Selected publications
An Earth-sized planet on a 5.4 h orbit around a nearby K dwarf
Astronomy and Astrophysics · 2026-01-27
articleOpen accessWe present the discovery and confirmation of the ultrashort period (USP) planet TOI-2431 b orbiting a nearby ( d ~ 36 pc) late K star ( T eff = 4109 ± 28 K) using observations from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), precise radial velocities (RVs) with NEID and Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) spectrographs, as well as ground-based high-contrast imaging from NESSI. TOI-2431 b has a period of 5 hours and 22 minutes, making it one of the shortest-period exoplanets known to date. TOI-2431 b has a radius of 1.534 ± 0.033 R ⊕ and a mass of 6.2 ± 1.6 M ⊕ , where the exact mass precision shows a slight dependence on the choice of prior. This suggests TOI-2431 b has a density compatible with an Earth-like composition and due to its high irradiation, it is likely to be a “lava-world” with a T eq = 2063 ± 30 K. We estimate that the current orbital period is only 30% larger than the Roche-limit orbital period and that it has an expected orbital decay timescale of only ~31 Myr. Finally, due to the brightness of the host star ( V = 10.9, K = 7.6), we find that TOI-2431 b has a high emission spectroscopy metric (ESM) of 27, making it one of the best USP systems for atmospheric phase-curve analyses.
The Astronomical Journal · 2026-04-13
articleOpen accessAbstract We present the confirmation of HD 190360 d, a warm ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>P</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>88.69</mml:mn> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mn>0</mml:mn> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.049</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.051</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:mi>days</mml:mi> </mml:math> ), low-mass ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> <mml:mi>sin</mml:mi> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>10.2</mml:mn> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.80</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.81</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> <mml:mspace width="0.25em"/> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> <mml:mo>⊕</mml:mo> </mml:msub> </mml:math> ) planet orbiting the nearby ( d = 16.0 pc), Sun-like (G7) star HD 190360. We detect HD 190360 d at high statistical significance even though its radial velocity (RV) semiamplitude is only K = 1.48 ± 0.11 m s −1 . Such low-amplitude signals are often challenging to confirm due to potential confusion with low-amplitude stellar signals. The HD 190360 system previously had two known planets: the 1.7 M J (true mass) HD 190360 b on a 7.9 yr orbit and the 21 M ⊕ (minimum mass) HD 190360 c on a 17.1 days orbit. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the HD 190360 planetary system that comprises more than 30 yr of RV measurements and absolute astrometry from the Hipparcos and Gaia spacecraft. Our analysis uses more than 1400 RVs, including nearly 100 from NEID. The proper motion anomaly as measured by these two astrometric missions solves for the dynamical mass of HD 190360 b and contributes to our understanding of the overall system architecture, while the long baseline of RVs enables the robust characterization of HD 190360 c and confirms the discovery of HD 190360 d.
TOI-1259Ab: A warm Jupiter orbiting a K-dwarf white-dwarf binary on a low-obliquity orbit
Astronomy and Astrophysics · 2026-02-27
articleOpen accessThe evolution of one member of a stellar binary into a white dwarf has been proposed as a mechanism that triggers the formation of close-in gas giant planets. The star’s asymmetric mass loss during the Asymptotic Giant Branch stage gives it a velocity recoil or “kick” that can initiate eccentric Lidov–Kozai oscillations, potentially causing a planet around the secondary star to migrate inward and perturb the eccentricity and inclination of its orbit. Here we present a measurement of the stellar obliquity of TOI-1259Ab, a gas giant in a close-in orbit around a K star with a white dwarf companion about 1650 au away. By using the NEID spectrograph to detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect during the planetary transit, we find the sky-projected obliquity to be λ = 7 −21 +20° . When combined with estimates of the stellar rotation period, radius, and projected rotation velocity, we find the true 3D obliquity to be ψ = 24 −12 +14° ( ψ < 47 ° at 95% confidence), revealing that the orbit of TOI-1259Ab is on a low-obliquity orbit with respect to the star’s equatorial plane. Because the planet’s orbit is too wide for tidal realignment to be expected, TOI-1259Ab might have formed quiescently in this low-obliquity configuration. Alternatively, as we show with dynamical simulations, eccentric Lidov–Kozai oscillations triggered by the evolution of the binary companion expect to lead to a low-obliquity configuration with a probability of ∼14%.
The Astronomical Journal · 2025-07-21 · 2 citations
articleOpen accessAbstract We present statistical results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration RV planet search program. This survey was designed to measure the occurrence rate of giant planets interior to the water ice line of young Sun-like stars, compare this to the prevalence of giant planets at older ages, and provide constraints on the timescale and dominant inward migration mechanism of giant planets. Our final sample amounts to 85 single young (20–200 Myr) G and K dwarfs that we target across a 4 yr time baseline with the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder spectrograph at McDonald Observatory’s Hobby-Eberly Telescope. As part of this survey, we discovered the young hot Jupiter HS Psc b. We characterize survey detection completeness with realistic injection-recovery tests and measure an occurrence rate of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:mo>.</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>9</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.4</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2.6</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> % for intermediate-age giant planets ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>0.3</mml:mn> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">J</mml:mi> </mml:msub> <mml:mo><</mml:mo> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> <mml:mi>sin</mml:mi> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> <mml:mo><</mml:mo> <mml:mn>13</mml:mn> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>M</mml:mi> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">J</mml:mi> </mml:msub> </mml:math> ) within 2.5 au. This is lower than the field age occurrence rate for the same planet masses and separations and favors an increase in the prevalence of giant planets over time from ∼100 Myr to several Gyr, although our results cannot rule out a constant rate. A decaying planet occurrence rate is, however, strongly excluded. This suggests that giant planets located inside the water ice line originate from a combination of in situ formation or early migration coupled with longer-term inward scattering. The completeness-corrected prevalence of young hot Jupiters in our sample is <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>1</mml:mn> <mml:mo>.</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>5</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.1</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2.2</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> % —similar to the rate for field stars—and the 95% upper limit for young brown dwarfs within 5000 days is <3.6% .
Discovery of a Nearby Habitable Zone Super-Earth Candidate Amenable to Direct Imaging
The Astronomical Journal · 2025-10-23 · 1 citations
articleOpen accessAbstract We present the discovery of GJ 251 c, a candidate super-Earth orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of its M dwarf host star. Using high-precision Habitable-zone Planet Finder and NEID RVs, in conjunction with archival RVs from the Keck I High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer, the Calar Alto High-resolution Search for M dwarfs with Exoearths with Near-infrared and optical Echelle Spectrograph, and the Spectropolarimétre Infrarouge, we improve the measured parameters of the known planet, GJ 251 b ( P b = 14.2370 days; <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> <mml:mi>sin</mml:mi> <mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> <mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo> </mml:math> = 3.85 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.33</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.35</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> M ⊕ ), and we significantly constrain the minimum mass of GJ 251 c, placing it in a plausibly terrestrial regime ( P c = 53.647 ± 0.044 days; <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>m</mml:mi> <mml:mi>sin</mml:mi> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>i</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>c</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> = 3.84 ± 0.75 M ⊕ ). Using activity mitigation techniques that leverage chromatic information content, we perform a color-dependent analysis of the system and a detailed comparison of more than 50 models that describe the nature of the planets and stellar activity in the system. Due to GJ 251’s proximity to Earth (5.5 pc), next generation, 30 meter class telescopes will likely be able to image terrestrial planets in GJ 251’s HZ. In fact, GJ 251 c is currently the best candidate for terrestrial, HZ planet imaging in the northern sky.
Time-resolved <i>p</i>-mode Oscillations for Subgiant HD 142091 with NEID at WIYN
The Astrophysical Journal · 2025-07-07
articleOpen accessAbstract Detections of Earth-analog planets in radial velocity (RV) observations are limited by stellar astrophysical variability occurring on a variety of timescales. Current state-of-the-art methods to disentangle potential planet signals from intrinsic stellar signals assume that stellar signals introduce asymmetries to the line profiles that can therefore be separated from the pure translational Doppler shifts of planets. Here, we examine this assumption using a time series of resolved stellar p -mode oscillations in HD 142091 ( κ CrB), as observed on a single night with the NEID spectrograph at 2 minutes cadence and with 25 cm s −1 precision. As an evolved subgiant star, this target has p -mode oscillations that are larger in amplitude (4–8 m s −1 ) and occur on longer timescales (80 minutes) than those of typical Sun-like stars of RV surveys, magnifying their corresponding effects on the stellar spectral profile. We show that for HD 142091, p -mode oscillations manifest primarily as pure Doppler shifts in the average line profile—measured by the cross-correlation function (CCF)—with “shape-driven” CCF variations as a higher-order effect. Specifically, we find that the amplitude of the shift varies across the CCF bisector, with 10% larger oscillation amplitudes closer to the core of the CCF and 25% smaller oscillation amplitudes for bisector velocities derived near the wings; we attribute this trend to larger oscillation velocities higher in the stellar atmosphere. Using a line-by-line analysis, we verify that a similar trend is seen as a function of average line depth, with deeper lines showing larger oscillation amplitudes. Finally, we find no evidence that p -mode oscillations have a chromatic dependence across the NEID bandpass beyond that due to intrinsic line depth differences across the spectrum.
The NEID Earth Twin Survey. III. Survey Performance after Three Years on Sky
The Astronomical Journal · 2025-10-10 · 3 citations
articleOpen accessCorrespondingAbstract The NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) has been delivering a rich set of precise radial velocity (RV) measurements for 41 bright, nearby main-sequence stars. Here, we describe the status of the survey after 3 yr on sky, and we present the full set of RV measurements and accompanying stellar activity indicators. We discuss intermediate survey diagnostics, including calibration of the known RV zero-point offset introduced following the Contreras fire in 2022 and the identification of an undiagnosed and previously unknown zero-point offset in 2021. An analysis of our data set using RVSearch demonstrates that for these target stars, NEID is independently sensitive to nearly all known planets with periods shorter than the NETS observing baseline. We also highlight a number of newly detected RV signals, which present exciting opportunities for future investigations.
The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems
The Astronomical Journal · 2025-06-25 · 7 citations
articleOpen accessAbstract We present a set of companion dynamical masses and orbital parameters of seven star systems from the NEID Earth Twin Survey with significant absolute astrometric accelerations between the epochs of Hipparcos and Gaia. These include four binary star systems (HD 68017 AB, 61 Cygni AB, HD 24496 AB, and HD 4614 AB) and three planetary systems (HD 217107, HD 190360, and HD 154345). Our analyses incorporate a long baseline of RVs that includes over 1100 previously unpublished measurements from NEID and MINERVA, extending the overall RV baseline for each system by ≈2.5 yr, as well as relative astrometry for the stellar binary systems where the positions of both stars are well measured. In each case, the combination of astrometry and RVs constrains the three-dimensional acceleration of the host star and enables precise dynamical masses. We publish true masses for three planets whose measurements were previously entangled with their inclinations, four stellar masses with ≲1% relative precision, and improved orbital solutions for all seven systems, including the first for HD 24496 AB. These solutions not only agree with previous estimates, but also improve their fidelity. We also explore each system for evidence of periodic signals in the residuals around our best-fit models, and discuss the potential that the three planetary systems have for being directly imaged. With dynamical mass estimates and reliable orbit ephemerides, these seven star systems represent promising benchmarks for future stellar and planetary characterization efforts, and are amenable for further improvement with the upcoming release of Gaia epoch astrometry.
The Astronomical Journal · 2025-09-03 · 3 citations
articleOpen accessCorrespondingAbstract We describe the discovery and characterization of TOI-7149 b, a 0.705 ± 0.075 M J , 1.18 ± 0.045 R J gas giant on a ∼2.65 days period orbit transiting an M4V star with a mass of 0.344 ± 0.030 M ⊙ and an effective temperature of 3363 ± 59 K. The planet was first discovered using NASA’s TESS mission, which we confirmed using a combination of ground-based photometry, radial velocities, and speckle imaging. The planet has one of the deepest transits of all known main-sequence planet hosts at ∼12% ( R p / R ⋆ ∼ 0.33). Pushing the bounds of previous discoveries of giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS), TOI-7149 is one of the lowest mass M-dwarfs to host a transiting giant planet. We compare the sample of transiting GEMS to stars within 200 pc with a Gaia color–magnitude diagram and find that the GEMS hosts are likely to be high metallicity stars. We also analyze the sample of transiting giant planets using the nonparametric MRExo framework to compare the bulk density of warm Jupiters across stellar masses. We confirm our previous result that transiting Jupiters around early M-dwarfs have similar masses and densities to warm Jupiters around FGK stars, and extend this to mid M-dwarfs, thereby suggesting a potential commonality in their formation mechanisms.
Order-by-order Modeling of Exoplanet Radial Velocity Data
ArXiv.org · 2025-10-17
preprintOpen accessPrecise radial velocity (RV) measurements are a crucial tool for exoplanet discovery and characterization. Today, the majority of these measurements are derived from Echelle spectra in the optical wavelength region using cross-correlation techniques. Although for certain stars these approaches can produce RVs with sub-1 m~s$^{-1}$ measurement errors, for many others, we are now in a regime where instrumental precision is fundamentally below the intrinsic RV variations of the star that result from astrophysical processes that can be correlated in both time and wavelength. We explore new methods for measuring exoplanet orbital parameters that take advantage of the fact that RV data sets are fundamentally multi-wavelength. By analyzing NEID extremely precise radial velocity (EPRV) data of three known exoplanet systems, we show that fitting a single Keplerian model to multi-wavelength RVs can produce a factor of 1.5 -- 6.8 better $M_p \sin i$ uncertainties compared to fitting RVs that are derived from a weighted average across wavelength.
Recent grants
Frequent coauthors
- 243 shared
Arpita Roy
- 190 shared
Suvrath Mahadevan
- 160 shared
Guðmundur Stefánsson
- 155 shared
Samuel Halverson
- 137 shared
Howard Isaacson
- 133 shared
Shubham Kanodia
Carnegie Institution for Science
- 132 shared
William D. Cochran
- 132 shared
Chad F. Bender
Education
- 2013
PhD, Astronomy
University of Texas at Austin
- 2008
B.A., Physics & Astronomy
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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