About

Nathan Kuncel is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota, affiliated with the College of Liberal Arts. His research focuses on the structure and prediction of performance in academic and work settings, emphasizing the validity of individual differences for predicting various aspects of performance. He investigates the use of standardized tests such as the SAT, GRE, GMAT, PCAT, and MAT, as well as prior accomplishments and personality traits, for predicting academic success in college and graduate school. Additionally, his work extends to personnel selection for managerial positions, personality measurement, meta-analytic methods, and training. Kuncel earned his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Minnesota in 2003. Throughout his career, he has contributed to understanding how standardized tests predict graduate student success and other performance outcomes. His research has been published in reputable journals, and he has received several awards, including the Cattell Early Career Research Award in 2009, the Anne Anastasi Early Career Award in 2010, and fellowships with the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology and the Association for Psychological Science in 2014. He is actively involved in teaching, directing studies in human abilities and psychology in the workplace, and leading research through the Kuncel Research Lab.

Research topics

• Psychology
• Social psychology
• Mathematics education
• Applied psychology
• Computer science

Selected publications

• Brain, personality, and leadership: A meta-analysis of performance predictors among West Point cadets

  Military Psychology · 2026-04-28

  articleSenior author

  Understanding the determinants of success at the United States Military Academy (USMA) has been a topic of inquiry for numerous decades. However, until now, no comprehensive meta-analytic review has synthesized findings across studies examining predictors of cadet outcomes. Drawing on 116 effect sizes from 21 independent samples comprising 29,102 cadets from the West Point classes of 1949-2022, artifact-distribution meta-analyses were conducted to correct observed correlations for measurement unreliability and indirect range restriction in predictors, using individual-level corrections where artifact data were available. Our meta-analysis reveals that cognitive predictors are positively and strongly associated with academic performance and positively but more modestly associated with leadership performance. Additionally, the personality trait of conscientiousness emerged as the most robust non-cognitive predictor of leadership performance while also exhibiting moderate associations with both academic and physical outcomes. Grit, a related characteristic, had weaker associations with outcomes. These findings suggest that military organizations may benefit from incorporating conscientiousness-saturated measures into selection systems, providing incremental validity beyond traditional cognitive predictors in forecasting comprehensive candidate success.

  PublisherDOI

• Graduate grade inflation at a U.S. research-intensive university: A 22-year longitudinal analysis

  PLoS ONE · 2026-03-25 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  The phenomenon of grade inflation has been studied extensively at high school and undergraduate levels, yet little is known about its occurrence in graduate education. This study bridges this gap by examining graduate grade inflation using data from one U.S. research intensive university, covering two decades of admissions across 75 master's programs (N = 24,815) and 78 doctoral programs (N = 15,701). Relying on both linear and ordinal multilevel models, we investigated the presence of grade inflation and potential variations by degree level and individual academic programs at the program level. Our findings provide preliminary evidence for the presence of graduate grade inflation and suggest that the magnitudes differ across individual academic programs. There is also evidence showing that the trend of grade inflation significantly differed across master's and doctoral programs. This apparent inflation undermines the signaling value of grades for employers and admission decisions in the labor market and academic selection, as well as for research, feedback, and learning purposes. Future research should replicate our findings using multi-institutional samples and examine drivers of graduate grade inflation to more accurately estimate its magnitude.

  PublisherDOI

• Graduate Grade Inflation at a U.S. Research-Intensive University: A 22-Year Longitudinal Analysis

  DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) · 2026-01-01

  articleOpen access
  Publisher

• Collegiate Honor Codes and Mandatory Reporting: Have We Gone Too Far?

  Journal of Academic Ethics · 2025-07-18

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract Academic dishonesty and counterproductive student behaviors are an ongoing concern in higher education. Over the years, multiple methods to promote student integrity have been proposed, including the use of honor codes. Collegiate honor systems, which make students collectively responsible for campus integrity, are sometimes paired with mandatory reporting policies, which have both advocates and critics. After a broad literature search, a review of 61 publications—ranging from academic journals to university publications and government reports—provided empirical data on college student observation and reporting of misconduct. Two preliminary findings emerged. First, honor code institutions with mandatory reporting policies appear to experience the lowest rates of student reporting—less than 2%—compared to 11% at honor code institutions without such policies, validating concerns about their effectiveness in fostering a culture of peer accountability. However, significant gaps in the data highlight the need for future research directly comparing honor code schools with and without mandatory reporting policies. Second, student responses regarding their willingness to report misconduct are unreliable predictors of actual reporting behavior as evidenced by the large difference in the percentage of students who said they would versus who actually did report misconduct.

  PublisherDOI

• Do Predictive Inferences Made from Admissions Test Scores Vary by Amount and Type of Test Preparation?

  Applied Measurement in Education · 2025-04-03

  article
  PublisherDOI

• Does It Matter Which Subtests We Use to Measure General Cognitive Ability? Group Differences Across Test Composites

  International Journal of Selection and Assessment · 2025-10-22

  articleOpen access

  ABSTRACT We demonstrate that overreliance on the common convention in our field that virtually any composite of three or more specific cognitive tests will result in a robust measure of general cognitive ability (GCA) can lead to inconsistent inferences about the nature of subgroup differences in GCA. Using data from Project Talent and NLSY97, we examined how different composites of cognitively loaded tests can vary in terms of subgroup differences. After forming all possible three‐test composites in each dataset, we found that while these composites generally had very similar correlations with GCA, they varied much more widely in their degrees of gender and race/ethnic mean score differences. We discuss considerations that can aid in assembling test composites that better capture true subgroup differences.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Improving Advisor Systems: Algorithms that Explain Themselves

  Journal of Business and Psychology · 2025-03-18 · 1 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract Human advisors typically explain their reasoning, which is absent when advice is given by an algorithm in the form of a mere number. We hypothesized that decision maker perceptions (e.g., trust), use of algorithmic advice, and hence judgment consistency and accuracy would improve if an algorithm ‘explains itself’. We recruited 1,202 English-speaking adults via Prolific who predicted the performance of a draw of 40 job candidates based on their assessment information and algorithmic advice. We used a 2 (narrative advice: yes/no) × 2 (narrative algorithm information: yes/no) × 2 (algorithmic advice as default: yes/no) between-subjects design. The first factor varied whether participants received mere numeric algorithmic advice or numeric advice plus a short case-by-case narrative explanation based on the specific candidate information. The second factor varied whether, before the task, the algorithm’s design and predictor weight choice were introduced in a narrative manner by a human character, using first-person language or in a descriptive manner. The third factor varied whether participants’ predictions defaulted to the algorithmic advice or an irrelevant value. Most effects were detectable but small in magnitude. The results showed that participants used narrative advice somewhat more than mere numeric advice, but only when their prediction did not default to the advice. Furthermore, participants had more trust, stronger feelings of human interaction, higher judgment consistency, and higher intentions to use the algorithm for future decisions when they received case-by-case narrative advice. People seem to feel more comfortable with algorithmic advice when receiving an explanation for each decision.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Finding and Developing the 21st Century Scientific Pioneer

  Collabra Psychology · 2024-01-01 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  Research on the personality of creative scientists is revisited using the Neo-Socioanalytic model of personality psychology as an organizing framework. Past research shows that creative scientists, largely from the 20th century, were distinguished by high levels of openness to experience, dominance, ambition, intelligence, and low levels of agreeableness. Contradictory findings for environmental influences highlighted the potential importance of both supportive and adverse diversifying experiences. Developmental trends also run contrary to the likelihood of scientific creativity occurring later in life, which is consistent with the life span models of creativity. Based on this review, we highlight much needed updating to the basic science of scientific creativity, including the need to test these findings in populations other than older white men, and the testing of both environmental experiences and individual differences simultaneously. An agenda for identifying and developing the 21st century creative scientist is provided.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Finding and developing the 21st Century Scientific Pioneer

  2024-03-26

  preprintOpen access

  Research on the personality of scientific creativity is revisited using the Neo-Socioanalytic model of personality psychology as an organizing framework. Past research shows that creative scientists, largely from the 20th century, were distinguished by high levels of openness to experience, dominance, ambition, intelligence, and low levels of agreeableness. Contradictory findings for environmental influences highlighted the potential importance of both supportive and adverse diversifying experiences. Developmental trends also run contrary to the likelihood of scientific creativity occurring later in life, which is consistent with the life span models of creativity. Based on this review, we highlight much needed updating to the basic science of scientific creativity, including the need to test these findings in populations other than older white men, and the testing of both environmental experiences and individual differences simultaneously. An agenda for identifying and developing the 21st century creative scientist is provided.

  PublisherDOI

• Examining the Existence of Cognitive Thresholds in Highly Quantitative College Courses

  Journal of Intelligence · 2024-03-26 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  While the dominant finding indicates a monotonic relationship between cognitive ability and academic performance, some researchers have suggested the existence of cognitive thresholds for challenging coursework, such that a certain level of cognitive ability is required for reaching a satisfactory level of academic achievement. Given the significance of finding a threshold for understanding the relationship between cognitive ability and academic performance, and the limited studies on the topic, it is worth further investigating the possibility of cognitive thresholds. Using a multi-institutional dataset and the necessary condition analysis (NCA), we attempted to replicate previous findings of cognitive thresholds on the major GPA of mathematics and physics-majored students, as well as the course grade of organic chemistry, to examine whether high SAT math scores constitute a necessary condition for obtaining satisfactory grades in these courses. The results from the two studies do not indicate an absolute cognitive threshold point below which students are doomed to fail regardless of the amount of effort they devote into learning. However, we did find that the chance of students with a low level of quantitative ability to succeed in highly quantitative courses is very small, which qualifies for the virtually necessary condition.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Paul R. Sackett

  Twin Cities Orthopedics

  93 shared

• Adam Beatty

  American Public University System

  25 shared

• Chad H. Van Iddekinge

  25 shared

• Filip Lievens

  Singapore Management University

  25 shared

• Thomas Kiger

  Human Resources Research Organization

  23 shared

• Jana Rigdon

  22 shared

• Winny Shen

  York University

  19 shared

• Marcus Credé

  Iowa State University

  11 shared

Awards & honors

• Cattell Early Career Research Award (2009)
• Anne Anastasi Early Career Award (2010)
• McKnight Presidential Fellow (2009 - 2011)
• Fellow - Society for Industrial and Organizational Psycholog…
• Fellow - Association for Psychological Science (2014)