Metal Accumulation in Commercially Important Velvet Crab (Necora Puber) in the Orkney Islands, Scotland

2024 · 1 citations

• Fishery
• Ecology
• Geography

Subseasonal fire forecast in the Amazon using week-2 precipitation forecast combined with a vegetation health indicator

2023 · 1 citations

• Environmental science
• Meteorology
• Climatology

Numerical predictions for a lead time of 2 to 4 weeks, a timescale known as subseasonal, has only in recent years begun transitioning from research to operational settings. One experiment dedicated to that effort is the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). In here, SubX multi-model ensemble (MME) mean precipitation forecast (2017-2021) for days 8 to 14 (week-2 forecast) is used as a covariate in logistic regression models to predict fire risk in the Amazon. The hybrid (dynamical and statistical) modelling approach describes the NextGen methodology aimed at improving forecast outcomes at the seasonal and subseasonal time scales. In a complementary experiment, a vegetation health index (VHI) is added to SubX precipitation forecasts as a predictor to fires. The findings show that fire risk can be skillfully assessed in most of the Amazon where fires occur regularly. In some sectors, SubX week-2 precipitation alone is a reliable predictor of fire risk, but the addition of VHI results both in (i) a larger portion of the Amazon domain with skillful forecasts and; (ii) higher skill in some sectors. The added information provided by VHI as a predictor is most relevant where the mosaic of land covers includes savannas and grassland, whereas SubX precipitation can be used as the sole predictor for week-2 fire risk forecast where the mosaic of land cover is dominated by forests. The operationalization of the methods presented in this study could allow for better preparedness and fire risk reduction in the Amazon with a lead time greater than a week.

2023 Scientific Session of the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES), Montréal, Canada, 19 March–April 1 2023: Video Loop

Surgical Endoscopy · 2023 · 2 citations

• Medicine
• Surgery
• General surgery

Comparative Effectiveness of Diversion of Cerebrospinal Fluid for Children With Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

JAMA Network Open · 2022 · 32 citations

• Medicine
• Intensive care medicine
• Pathology

Importance: Diversion of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has been used for decades as a treatment for children with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and is recommended by evidenced-based guidelines. However, these recommendations are based on limited studies. Objective: To determine whether CSF diversion is associated with improved Glasgow Outcome Score-Extended for Pediatrics (GOS-EP) and decreased intracranial pressure (ICP) in children with severe TBI. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational comparative effectiveness study was performed at 51 clinical centers that routinely care for children with severe TBI in 8 countries (US, United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and India) from February 2014 to September 2017, with follow-up at 6 months after injury (final follow-up, October 22, 2021). Children with severe TBI were included if they had Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores of 8 or lower, had intracranial pressure (ICP) monitor placed on-site, and were aged younger than 18 years. Children were excluded if they were pregnant or an ICP monitor was not placed at the study site. Consecutive children were screened and enrolled, data regarding treatments were collected, and at discharge, consent was obtained for outcomes testing. Propensity matching for pretreatment characteristics was performed to develop matched pairs for primary analysis. Data analyses were completed on April 18, 2022. Exposures: Clinical care followed local standards, including the use of CSF diversion (or not), with patients stratified at the time of ICP monitor placement (CSF group vs no CSF group). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was GOS-EP at 6 months, while ICP was considered as a secondary outcome. CSF vs no CSF was treated as an intention-to-treat analysis, and a sensitivity analysis was performed for children who received delayed CSF diversion. Results: A total of 1000 children with TBI were enrolled, including 314 who received CSF diversion (mean [SD] age, 7.18 [5.45] years; 208 [66.2%] boys) and 686 who did not (mean [SD] age, 7.79 [5.33] years; 437 [63.7%] boys). The propensity-matched analysis included 98 pairs. In propensity score-matched analyses, there was no difference between groups in GOS-EP (median [IQR] difference, 0 [-3 to 1]; P = .08), but there was a decrease in overall ICP in the CSF group (mean [SD] difference, 3.97 [0.12] mm Hg; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study, CSF diversion was not associated with improved outcome at 6 months after TBI, but a decrease in ICP was observed. Given the higher quality of evidence generated by this study, current evidence-based guidelines related to CSF diversion should be reconsidered.

Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon

Environmental Research Letters · 2022 · 9 citations

• Environmental science
• Climatology
• Meteorology

Abstract Current forecast systems provide reliable deterministic forecasts at the scale of weather (1–7 days) and probabilistic outcomes at the scale of seasons (1–9 months). Only in recent years research has begun transitioning to operational settings to provide numerical predictions for a lead time of 2–4 weeks, a timescale known as subseasonal. The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble mean precipitation forecast (2017–2021) for days 8–14 (week-2 forecast) is used as a covariate in logistic regression models to predict fire risk in the Amazon. In a complementary experiment, a vegetation health index (VHI) is added to SubX precipitation forecasts as a predictor of fires. We find that fire risk can be skillfully assessed in most of the Amazon where fires occur regularly. In some sectors, SubX week-2 precipitation alone is a reliable predictor of fire risk, but the addition of VHI as a predictor results both in (a) a larger portion of the Amazon domain with skillful forecasts and; (b) higher skill in some sectors. By comparing two sectors of the Amazon, we find that the added information provided by VHI is most relevant where the mosaic of land covers includes savannas and grassland, whereas SubX precipitation can be used as the sole predictor for week-2 fire risk forecast in areas where the mosaic of land cover is dominated by forests. Our results illustrate the potential for using numerical model forecasts, at the subseasonal timescale, in combination with satellite remote sensing of vegetation to obtain skillful fire risk forecasts in the Amazon. The operationalization of the methods presented in this study could allow for better preparedness and fire risk reduction in the Amazon with a lead time greater than a week.

Comparison of Intracranial Pressure Measurements Before and After Hypertonic Saline or Mannitol Treatment in Children With Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

JAMA Network Open · 2022 · 73 citations

• Anesthesia
• Medicine
• Internal medicine

Importance: Hyperosmolar agents are cornerstone therapies for pediatric severe traumatic brain injury. Guideline recommendations for 3% hypertonic saline (HTS) are based on limited numbers of patients, and no study to date has supported a recommendation for mannitol. Objectives: To characterize current use of hyperosmolar agents in pediatric severe traumatic brain injury and assess whether HTS or mannitol is associated with greater decreases in intracranial pressure (ICP) and/or increases in cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP). Design, Setting, and Participants: In this comparative effectiveness research study, 1018 children were screened and 18 were excluded; 787 children received some form of hyperosmolar therapy during the ICP-directed phase of care, with 521 receiving a bolus. Three of these children were excluded because they had received only bolus administration of both HTS and mannitol in the same hour, leaving 518 children (at 44 clinical sites in 8 countries) for analysis. The study was conducted from February 1, 2014, to September 31, 2017, with follow-up for 1 week after injury. Final analysis was performed July 20, 2021. Interventions: Boluses of HTS and mannitol were administered. Main Outcomes and Measures: Data on ICP and CPP were collected before and after medication administration. Statistical methods included linear mixed models and corrections for potential confounding variables to compare the 2 treatments. Results: A total of 518 children (mean [SD] age, 7.6 [5.4] years; 336 [64.9%] male; 274 [52.9%] White) were included. Participants' mean (SD) Glasgow Coma Scale score was 5.2 (1.8). Bolus HTS was observed to decrease ICP and increase CPP (mean [SD] ICP, 1.03 [6.77] mm Hg; P < .001; mean [SD] CPP, 1.25 [12.47] mm Hg; P < .001), whereas mannitol was observed to increase CPP (mean [SD] CPP, 1.20 [11.43] mm Hg; P = .009). In the primary outcome, HTS was associated with a greater reduction in ICP compared with mannitol (unadjusted β, -0.85; 95% CI, -1.53 to -0.19), but no association was seen after adjustments (adjusted β, -0.53; 95% CI, -1.32 to 0.25; P = .18). No differences in CPP were observed. When ICP was greater than 20 mm Hg, greater than 25 mm Hg, or greater than 30 mm Hg, HTS outperformed mannitol for each threshold in observed ICP reduction (>20 mm Hg: unadjusted β, -2.51; 95% CI, -3.86 to -1.15, P < .001; >25 mm Hg: unadjusted β, -3.88; 95% CI, -5.69 to -2.06, P < .001; >30 mm Hg: unadjusted β, -4.07; 95% CI, -6.35 to -1.79, P < .001), with results remaining significant for ICP greater than 25 mm Hg in adjusted analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study, bolus HTS was associated with lower ICP and higher CPP, whereas mannitol was associated only with higher CPP. After adjustment for confounders, both therapies showed no association with ICP and CPP. During ICP crises, HTS was associated with better performance than mannitol.

Predicting future from past: The genomic basis of recurrent and rapid stickleback evolution

Science Advances · 2021 · 119 citations

• Evolutionary biology
• Biology
• Computational biology

Similar forms often evolve repeatedly in nature, raising long-standing questions about the underlying mechanisms. Here, we use repeated evolution in stickleback to identify a large set of genomic loci that change recurrently during colonization of freshwater habitats by marine fish. The same loci used repeatedly in extant populations also show rapid allele frequency changes when new freshwater populations are experimentally established from marine ancestors. Marked genotypic and phenotypic changes arise within 5 years, facilitated by standing genetic variation and linkage between adaptive regions. Both the speed and location of changes can be predicted using empirical observations of recurrence in natural populations or fundamental genomic features like allelic age, recombination rates, density of divergent loci, and overlap with mapped traits. A composite model trained on these stickleback features can also predict the location of key evolutionary loci in Darwin's finches, suggesting that similar features are important for evolution across diverse taxa.

Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

Nature · 2021 · 1108 citations

• Biology
• Virology
• Evolutionary biology

. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

An agroecological vision of perennial agriculture

Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems · 2021 · 13 citations

• Agroforestry
• Geography
• Agronomy

Not all agriculture based on perennial plants is ecologically sound or socially just. But an agroecological concept of perennial agriculture must be. We suggest three key elements of an agroecological vision for perennial agriculture. First, perennial agriculture must be managed with regard for the future as much as the present. Second, perennial agriculture must be situated in an ecological and social context, meeting the material, social, and ecological needs of the individuals and communities that engage in producing agricultural goods – making it what we term an “agroecological endeavor.” Third, perennial agriculture must include a diversity of plants, including – but not limited to – perennial plants. Thus, we propose envisioning perennial agriculture as the perennial management of an agroecological endeavor that includes perennial plants.

From Identification to Intelligence: An Assessment of the Suitability of Forensic DNA Phenotyping Service Providers for Use in Australian Law Enforcement Casework

Frontiers in Genetics · 2021 · 12 citations

• Computer Security
• Computer Science
• Political Science

Forensic DNA Phenotyping (FDP) is an established but evolving field of DNA testing. It provides intelligence regarding the appearance (externally visible characteristics), biogeographical ancestry and age of an unknown donor and, although not necessarily a requirement for its casework application, has been previously used as a method of last resort in New South Wales (NSW) Police Force investigations. FDP can further assist law enforcement agencies by re-prioritising an existing pool of suspects or generating a new pool of suspects. In recent years, this capability has become ubiquitous with a wide range of service providers offering their expertise to law enforcement and the public. With the increase in the number of providers offering FDP and its potential to direct and target law enforcement resources, a thorough assessment of the applicability of these services was undertaken. Six service providers of FDP were assessed for suitability for NSW Police Force casework based on prediction accuracy, clarity of reporting, limitations of testing, cost and turnaround times. From these assessment criteria, a service provider for the prediction of biogeographical ancestry, hair and eye colour was deemed suitable for use in NSW Police Force casework. Importantly, the study highlighted the need for standardisation of terminology and reporting in this evolving field, and the requirement for interpretation by biologists with specialist expertise to translate the scientific data to intelligence for police investigators.