Joseph Vavra

About

Joseph Vavra is a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. His research focuses on macroeconomics and monetary economics, with particular attention to the influence of housing on the macroeconomy and the effects of regional business cycles on aggregate activity. Recent work by Vavra argues that monetary policy actions, such as quantitative easing during the Great Recession, amplified inequality, and he explores the consequences of stimulus policies during the pandemic. Vavra holds multiple degrees in economics from Yale University, including a Ph.D., M.Phil., and M.A., and earned a B.A. magna cum laude in mathematics, mathematical economic analysis, and statistics from Rice University. His academic interests include empirical macroeconomics, business cycles, and monetary policy, especially regarding the implications of microdata for understanding aggregate phenomena and how policy effects may vary depending on the phase of the business cycle.

Research topics

• Economics
• Monetary economics
• Macroeconomics
• Finance
• Demographic economics
• Labour economics
• Political Science
• Financial system
• Business
• Microeconomics

Selected publications

• US unemployment insurance replacement rates during the pandemic

  Journal of Public Economics · 2020 · 171 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy

  American Economic Review · 2021 · 147 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding

  How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate p…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data

  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · 2020 · 130 citations

  We use U.S. household-level bank account data to investigate the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on spending and savings. Households across the income distribution all cut spending from March to early April. Since mid April, spending has rebounded most rapidly for low-income households. We find large increases in liquid asset balances for households throughout the income distribution. However, lower-income households contribute disproportionately to the aggregate increase in balances, rela…

  DOI

• Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2022-08-01 · 60 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics-but not employment dynamics-during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for persistent behav…

  PublisherDOI

• The Rise of Niche Consumption

  American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · 2023-06-30 · 36 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by “superstar” products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are availab…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Erik Hurst

  101 shared

• Benjamin J. Keys

  85 shared

• Amit Seru

  85 shared

• David Berger

  Duke University

  61 shared

• Peter Ganong

  University of Chicago

  44 shared

• Guido Lorenzoni

  39 shared

• Veronica Guerrieri

  University of Chicago

  39 shared

• Pascal Noel

  University of Chicago

  30 shared

Awards & honors

• Distinguished Alumni Award Honorees

Similar researchers at University of Chicago

• Anil Kashyaph-84
• Lars Hansenh-80