About

John D. Sterman is the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a Professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. He serves as the Director of the MIT System Dynamics Group and the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative. His research centers on improving decision-making in complex systems, including areas such as corporate strategy and operations, energy policy, public health, environmental sustainability, and climate change. Sterman has pioneered the development of management flight simulators of corporate and economic systems, which are now utilized by organizations worldwide. He is the author of numerous scholarly and popular articles, including the book 'Modeling for Organizational Learning' and the award-winning textbook 'Business Dynamics.' Sterman has received multiple honors, including being a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, an honorary doctorate from the Università della Svizzera italiana, and several awards for his contributions to system dynamics and climate change policy. His work has been featured extensively in media outlets globally, highlighting his innovative use of interactive simulations in management education and policymaking, particularly in climate change and energy policy.

Research topics

• Medicine
• Demography
• Business
• Environmental health
• Computer Science
• Telecommunications
• Nursing
• Psychology
• Internal medicine
• Virology
• Finance
• Geography
• Natural resource economics
• Economics
• Environmental economics
• Medical emergency

Selected publications

• Designing for impact: How interactive climate simulations foster learning, engagement and action

  2026-03-14

  articleOpen accessSenior authorCorresponding

  Policy design in climate and sustainability is hindered by nonlinear feedbacks, long delays, and uncertainty that limit the effectiveness of traditional information‑centric communication. The manuscript examines how simulation models can be designed and deployed to support learning and decision‑making by integrating analytical rigor, model transparency, and structured stakeholder engagement. Using the C‑ROADS and En‑ROADS climate policy simulators and insights from the MIT Climate Pathways Project (CPP), the paper distills three design principles for impactful simulation‑based learning environments:(1) rigorous, empirically grounded modeling with comprehensive simulator transparency;(2) user‑centered interface design that scaffolds discovery while preserving access to underlying structure and assumptions; and(3) facilitated, interactive engagements that enable participants to test mental models through experimentation and social learning.First, rigorous modeling emphasizes the necessity of formal testing and documentation to build confidence in policy insights. En‑ROADS and C‑ROADS are developed iteratively, grounded in the scientific literature, are calibrated to historic data, and their future behavior is tested against the climate scenarios in the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and other widely-used Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), GCAM, MESSAGE-GLOBIUM, and REMIND-MAgPIE. Multi‑layered documentation—including an online technical reference guide, simulator behavior comparisons, and easily accessible explanations—enables scrutiny of model mechanisms, parameters, and simulator behavior. Users can interrogate and vary assumptions to explore robustness and uncertainty.Second, user-centered interface design concerns design for “guided discovery.” The simulator’s layered interface presents key outcomes and policy levers in an intuitive top layer while offering advanced controls (≈250 parameters) and extensive visualization (≈180 graphs). Real‑time, browser‑based computation supports rapid scenario exploration across devices and languages, enabling both individual and group use cases. Iterative usability testing ensures that the interface reduces cognitive load while preserving analytical depth.Third, facilitated, interactive engagements include the design of engagement protocols that combine analytic reasoning with experiential, collaborative learning. We highlight three formats:the World Climate Simulation with C‑ROADS;the Climate Action Simulation with En‑ROADS; andthe En‑ROADS Climate Workshop for policy briefings.These interactive engagements prompt participants to articulate expectations before running scenarios, confront divergences between expectations and simulated outcomes, and engage in structured discussion and reflection. Such practices surface misconceptions about leverage points (e.g., relative effects of pricing emissions, efficiency improvements, carbon dioxide removal, afforestation, or bioenergy), foster systems thinking, and support informed action.The CPP and the broader community infrastructure amplify reach and consistency. As of December 2025, more than 472,000 participants in 183 countries—including over 23,000 leaders in government, business, and civil society—have engaged with the simulators. A global network of En‑ROADS Climate Ambassadors (over 940 in 90+ countries) has collectively engaged upwards of 354,000 people through a structured training and certification program, extending the implementation of the design principles in diverse contexts.The paper concludes with a conceptual model for future empirical research that hypothesizes how model rigor and transparency and interface usability affect learning and action via the mediating mechanism of facilitated, interactive simulation‑based experience. This framework supports systematic evaluation of simulator design and engagement quality, informing the development of SD‑based tools and protocols that can strengthen climate literacy, improve policy reasoning, and support evidence‑based action.

  PublisherDOI

• Designing for Impact: Engaging Stakeholders With System Dynamics Models

  System Dynamics Review · 2026-03-29

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  ABSTRACT System dynamics models offer powerful tools for understanding complex systems and informing policy. Yet, their impact often falls short due to limited stakeholder engagement and poor implementation. Here, we explore how system dynamics models can be designed for real‐world impact by integrating analytical rigor, transparent modeling, and interactive stakeholder engagement. We build on the literature on engaging stakeholders through management flight simulators, gamification and storytelling, and utilize the C‐ROADS and En‐ROADS climate simulators and insights from the MIT Climate Pathways Project. To date, more than 492,000 people in 185 countries, including more than 23,000 leaders in government, business, investing, and civil society, have participated in interactive sessions with these simulators. We present three key design principles: (1) rigorous modeling and model transparency, (2) intuitive model interfaces, and (3) facilitated, interactive simulation‐based experiences. These principles enable users—from students to senior policymakers—to challenge mental models, explore trade‐offs in a safe, engaging environment, and learn for themselves. We discuss limitations and directions for refinement of these principles. The paper contributes to the system dynamics and broader practice literature by offering actionable insights for designing models and protocols for their use that catalyze learning and informed decision‐making in complex policy environments.

  PublisherDOI

• Interactive simulation with En-ROADS spurs climate action among decision-makers

  2026-03-14

  articleOpen accessSenior authorCorresponding

  Effective climate mitigation requires rapid, evidence‑based decisions across government, business, and civil society. Yet widespread misconceptions, disinformation, and insufficient understanding of high‑impact climate solutions continue to impede meaningful action among leaders. Traditional risk communication approaches often fail to overcome these barriers, particularly where climate change is politically polarized or socially contested. Here, we investigate whether interactive climate policy simulations with the En‑ROADS model can strengthen leaders’ knowledge, affective engagement, and motivation to take climate action.Using a mixed‑methods design, we engaged 949 participants in 37 En‑ROADS workshops and Climate Action Simulations, an interactive role-play designed around the En-ROADS simulator. Participants in the role-play are assigned to different delegations at a mock UN climate conference, including governments, representatives from conventional energy, clean tech, industry and finance, and forest and agriculture. Pre‑/post‑survey responses (N≈290 matched) and semi‑structured interviews (N=42) were used to evaluate changes in knowledge, affect, and intended actions.Survey‑based results show that interactive engagements significantly improved participants’ understanding of which climate policies have high versus low mitigation impact. Participants made substantial gains in identifying high‑impact solutions such as carbon pricing, cutting methane and non‑CO₂ greenhouse gases, and improving building energy efficiency. Participants also improved their ability to identify which solutions have little impact, even when those solutions are commonly favored. Such low-impact solutions do little to reduce near-term emissions and include afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, and technological carbon removal.Engagement with En‑ROADS also increased participants’ affective engagement with climate change. Participants reported statistically significant increases in both the personal importance they attach to the issue and their sense of empowerment to contribute to climate solutions. These effects were similar across virtual and in‑person workshops, indicating a potential to scale across formats.Interview‑based analyses confirm the survey results. Interviewees described the simulation experience as improving their understanding of the urgency, scale, and systemic nature of the climate challenge. Many emphasized that En‑ROADS’s interactive features made complex dynamics of the climate and energy systems easier to grasp than other modes of learning. The workshops generated strong emotional responses, including a sense of urgency and hope, which, in turn, motivated participants to act. Social interactions during the sessions played a critical role: collaborative scenario development fostered a sense of collective efficacy, reinforcing participants’ willingness to advocate for organizational or policy change.Most interviewees reported taking or planning climate‑related actions after to the workshop. These actions include reducing their personal emissions, strategic organizational changes (e.g., establishing an internal carbon price or shifting investment strategies), and advocating for governmental or corporate policy change. Participants who were focused on sustainability prior to En-ROADS simulations also made gains, reporting improved clarity on high‑impact solutions and a strengthened sense of collective efficacy for climate action.Overall, the results demonstrate that interactive En‑ROADS workshops can improve leaders’ understanding of effective climate mitigation strategies, activate emotional engagement, and motivate both individual and institutional climate action. This suggests that simulation‑based approaches can help bridge the persistent gap between climate knowledge and climate action among key societal actors.

  PublisherDOI

• Interactive simulation with En-ROADS spurs climate action among decision-makers

  npj Climate Action · 2026-03-21

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  The risks of climate change stand in stark contrast to widespread confusion, conflict, and insufficient action among decision-makers. Interactive climate policy simulations have been proposed to enable people to learn more effectively than traditional risk communication methods. Here we analyze the impact of engaging decision-makers in government, the private sector, and NGOs with the interactive En-ROADS climate policy simulator. Quantitative analyses of pre- and post-workshop surveys show statistically significant, substantive gains in participant knowledge about climate solutions, their personal connection to climate change, and their sense of empowerment to address it. Analyses of post-workshop semi-structured interviews highlight gains in knowledge about and emotional engagement with climate solutions induced by the simulation, with many participants reporting stronger motivation to act on climate. The results suggest that simulations like En-ROADS can inform and empower decision-makers to influence climate policy, offering a promising tool to bridge the gap between knowledge and action.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Interactive role-play with climate policy simulation can motivate evidence-based climate action

  Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-09-29 · 5 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  The gap between climate pledges and action remains wide, including in the United States, where politicization and misconceptions hinder action. Interactive simulations could help overcome this gap by enhancing knowledge about climate change and motivating action. But little is known about whether this approach increases knowledge about climate solutions or whether such gains persist over time and foster real-world action. Here we analyze the impact of the En-ROADS Climate Action Simulation on participants’ understanding of high-leverage climate solutions, affective engagement, intent to act, and real-world action. Data from 1246 participants show gains in climate knowledge and engagement, sustained over 6 months, and fostering real-world actions. These gains are not influenced by participants’ sociodemographic traits or sociopolitical values. These results, together with the simulation’s accessibility and adaptability to diverse settings, highlight its potential to foster informed climate action. The climate action simulation exercise increased participants’ knowledge about high-impact climate actions and policies, and those gains persisted for at least 6 months, according to survey data and statistical analysis.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Beyond Least Squares: Estimation of Dynamic Models With Alternative Likelihoods and Kalman Filtering

  System Dynamics Review · 2025-04-01

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  ABSTRACT From business to healthcare and operations to strategy, grounding system dynamics models in data is indispensable for theory and practice. However, formal estimation is difficult due to incomplete data, model mis‐specification, process noise, and measurement error. This complexity has limited the quantity and quality of formal estimation. We argue that comparing generic and easy‐to‐apply estimation methods for common models is fruitful for identifying methods that work well for SD practitioners. Using the classical SEIR model, we compare standard least squares against maximum likelihood estimators including variance‐scaled Gaussian, log Gaussian, Poisson, and negative binomial estimators, and assess the value of (extended) Kalman filtering. Under different assumptions about data availability and noise, we find that least squares, log Gaussian, and scaled Gaussian likelihoods perform poorly in estimating confidence intervals. The negative binomial and Kalman filtering with variance scaling and auto‐correlated process noise are promising across different setups. Implications for modelers are discussed.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Interactive simulation with En-ROADS spurs climate action among decision-makers

  Research Square · 2025-12-22

  preprintOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Efficacy of a Standardized Process in Optimizing Appropriate Use of Progressive Care Unit Beds in a Tertiary Care Facility

  Dimensions of Critical Care Nursing · 2024

  • Medicine
  • Nursing
  • Medical emergency

  BACKGROUND: Poor patient progression from the progressive care unit (PCU) beds has been recognized as a bottleneck, limiting the hospital's ability to optimize capacity for the sickest patients. Improving nurse management on PCU admission and discharge criteria could avoid PCU bottlenecks. LOCAL PROBLEM: Our institution lacked a standard process to identify clinically appropriate patients ready for transfer out of the PCU, causing delays in vacating PCU beds. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine if creating a standard process to empower bedside nurses and unit nursing leaders to push readiness information to the provider team improves the appropriateness of PCU stay and transfers patients out of the PCU earlier. METHODS: The most common causes of delayed transfer out of the PCU were discussed among stakeholders. A process was designed to empower the bedside nurses to partner with a physician leader to send information to the provider team requesting evaluation of the patient's readiness to leave the unit. The improvement of meeting the criteria for PCU was evaluated by comparing 60 patients prior to the intervention phase with 139 patients during the intervention. RESULTS: The primary outcome, percentage of patients meeting PCU criteria, was 53% during the audit phase and 68% during the intervention phase (P = .05). The PCU transfer time was pushed 1 hour earlier in the day. CONCLUSIONS: The standard process of empowering bedside nurses to partner with physician leaders to push readiness for transferring patients out of the PCU resulted in a significant improvement in the percentage of patients meeting PCU criteria and earlier discharge of appropriate patients.

  PublisherDOI

• System dynamics to understand and improve the performance of complex projects

  Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · 2023-01-24 · 4 citations

  book-chapterSenior author

  Projects are chronically late, over-budget, and fail to meet quality standards and customer requirements. Here we explore the causes using system dynamics. System dynamics has been used successfully in dispute resolution and to proactively improve project performance for more than forty years. We describe the feedback processes that lead to poor outcomes, including productivity and quality decline from failure to account for errors and rework, and resulting unplanned hiring, fatigue, employee turnover, work done out of sequence, and corner cutting in project work, quality assurance, and testing. The dynamic systems perspective explains how experienced managers can inadvertently cause cost and schedule overruns, low quality, and other problems by taking actions intended to improve schedule, cost, or quality in the short run, but worsen performance later and thwart learning. A companion chapter illustrates with the MIT Sloan Project Management Simulation. We close with recommendations to improve the management of complex projects.

  PublisherDOI

• A management flight simulator to catalyse learning about complex projects

  Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · 2023-01-24

  book-chapterSenior author

  Projects are chronically late, over-budget, and fail to meet quality standards and customer requirements. A companion paper in this volume, 'System dynamics to understand and improve the performance of complex projects,' describes the feedback processes that lead to poor outcomes, including failure to account for errors and rework and resulting unplanned hiring, fatigue, employee turnover, work done out of sequence, and corner cutting. Here we illustrate these pathologies using the MIT Sloan Project Management Simulation, a realistic, interactive system dynamics "management flight simulator" that can represent projects in product development, software, construction, and other domains. We assess the performance of experienced executives in the simulation. Most do poorly as they become trapped in vicious cycles where well-intentioned actions they take to get their projects back on track trigger unanticipated impacts that degrade schedule, cost, and quality. We close with recommendations to improve education about and the management of complex projects.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Juliette N. Rooney‐Varga

  University of Massachusetts Lowell

  21 shared

• Nelson P. Repenning

  12 shared

• Lori Siegel

  12 shared

• Hazhir Rahmandad

  Harvard University Press

  11 shared

• George P. Richardson

  Albany State University

  10 shared

• Erik Mosekilde

  10 shared

• Travis Franck

  9 shared

• Kenneth Rath

  American Society For Engineering Education

  9 shared

Labs

• System DynamicsPI

Awards & honors

• Jay W. Forrester Prize for the best published work in system…
• Honorary doctorate from the Università della Svizzera italia…
• System Dynamics Applications Award from the System Dynamics…
• Best Application Award from the System Dynamics Society
• Samuel E. Seegal Faculty Prize at MIT