Jesse Schreger

Exchange Rate Reconnect

The Review of Economics and Statistics · 2020 · 127 citations

Abstract It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly comove with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature as “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not comove with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during the 2007–2012 period, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these…

Sources and Transmission of Country Risk

The Review of Economic Studies · 2023-08-16 · 66 citations

Abstract We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associated with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically identify spikes in perceived country risk (“crises”) and document their source and pattern of transmission to foreign firms. While this pattern usually follows a gravity structure, it often change…

The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal · 2023-01-01 · 15 citations

Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics

NBER Macroeconomics Annual · 2025-04-01 · 10 citations

Geoeconomics is the use of a country's economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals.We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide research on geoeconomics.Economic threats as a form of coercion have seen a recent resurgence.We show how different types of threats can be modeled using simple tools and discuss what channels their potential effectiveness is based on.We discuss important op…

Global Capital Allocation

SSRN Electronic Journal · 2023-01-01 · 7 citations