About

Jennifer Skeem is a faculty member at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. She is a Professor of Public Policy and Social Welfare. Her work focuses on public policy and social welfare, contributing to the academic and practical understanding of these fields through her research and teaching. As a distinguished member of the faculty, she is involved in advancing policy initiatives and educating future policymakers.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Psychology
• Political Science
• Social psychology
• Machine Learning
• Medicine
• Criminology
• Medical emergency
• Algorithm
• Developmental psychology
• Clinical psychology
• Law
• Actuarial science
• Psychiatry
• Economics
• Mathematics
• Econometrics
• Statistics

Selected publications

• A pretrial release policy based on risk assessment would reduce unnecessary incarceration, increase racial fairness, and save money

  Criminology & Public Policy · 2026-03-18

  article1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract Research Summary Pretrial reform is vital, as nearly 500,000 unconvicted people are held in U.S. jails while awaiting trial. Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) offer data‐driven identification of defendants who are unlikely to reoffend and can safely be released, yet face criticism from across the political spectrum—for potentially perpetuating racial bias or endangering public safety. Moreover, inconsistent judicial application undermines the effectiveness of RAIs. Using data on 146,841 federal defendants, we apply causal analyses with machine learning to estimate the effects of a policy that presumptively releases defendants classified as relatively low risk by the Pretrial Risk Assessment (PTRA). Compared to magistrate judges’ status quo decisions, this approach would reduce pretrial detention by 34.2% and increase successful community releases by 31.8%, with only a 1.6% rise in public safety risk. Black defendants would experience greater benefits (39.0% detention reduction vs. 27.3% for White defendants). Detention cost savings would be approximately $3.5 billion. Policy Implications Although the PTRA outperforms unstructured judgment, it should strongly guide rather than replace judicial discretion. The central challenge is structuring judgment in pretrial decision making. As an initial step, the federal system should expand inclusion of PTRA risk estimates in pretrial reports beyond the current 15% of districts, implementing standardized reporting formats to ensure clear communication and consistent application. For greater impact, policy makers should consider a risk‐based presumptive release framework where defendants below a specified risk threshold are released unless magistrate judges identify specific statutory factors justifying detention. This approach addresses inconsistent RAI application while preserving judicial authority. Implementation will require investment in trust‐building and practice fidelity, but structuring pretrial decisions around validated risk measures promises to enhance fairness, reduce costs, and maintain public safety—outcomes with broad political appeal.

  PublisherDOI

• A Pretrial Release Policy based on Risk Assessment would Reduce Unnecessary Incarceration, Increase Racial Fairness, and save Money

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Effect of Juvenile Justice Financial Sanctions on Youth's Recidivism

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Understanding racial disparities in pretrial detention recommendations to shape policy reform

  UNC Libraries · 2025-03-25

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Research Summary Federal pretrial services and probation officers assess defendants and make influential recommendations that defendants be either released or detained, based on their threat to community safety and risk of flight. To inform efforts to reduce disparities in pretrial detention, we examined officers’ decision making about 149,815 defendants across 81 districts. Overall, the probability of a detention recommendation was 34% higher for Black than White defendants. Racial disparities were most pronounced in ambiguous cases that invoked substantial officer discretion—including cases where the defendant had little or no criminal record. Nevertheless, mediation analyses revealed that up to 79% of the racial disparity in detention recommendations operates through institutionalized factors (i.e., pretrial policy) rather than personally mediated factors (e.g., implicit racism or classism). The lion's share of the disparity operates through one institutionalized factor alone: criminal history. Policy Implications This study illustrates an empirical strategy for understanding the pathways through which disparities operate, which is crucial for shaping effective solutions. Providing officers with training and decision guides could reduce personally mediated bias—which is crucial for high discretion cases. However, this study shows that disparities mostly flow through institutionalized bias. So, greater gains may be had by making strategic shifts in policies and their implementation. One promising direction is to corral criminal history by adopting a tight definition that demonstrably predicts violence and failure to appear, and limiting the weight assigned to criminal history versus other predictive factors, when making recommendations. Another promising direction is to adopt risk‐based release policies that leverage an existing tool to reduce both detention rates and racial disparities.

  PublisherDOI

• Effect of juvenile justice financial sanctions on youths’ recidivism.

  Law and Human Behavior · 2025-10-16 · 1 citations

  article

  OBJECTIVES: Advocacy for reforming financial sanctions (i.e., fees, fines, and restitution) in the juvenile justice system is growing, with a particular focus on eliminating fees. Although a key argument is that these sanctions may increase the likelihood of reoffending, studies that examine the link between financial sanctions and recidivism are limited and their results are mixed. Using administrative data on a large, diverse, and at-risk population of juvenile probationers in an urban county, we tested the impact that financial sanctions have overall-and that fees have specifically-on young people's risk of probation violations and rearrest over a 2-year period. HYPOTHESES: We tentatively hypothesized that (a) financial sanctions overall would increase both probation violations and rearrests, and (b) fees alone would increase probation violations but not rearrests. METHOD: We accessed, linked, and analyzed data from county and state agencies for a sample of 2,401 youth under supervision. We applied a rigorous causal inference approach (targeted maximum likelihood estimation) combined with machine learning to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: Financial sanctions overall modestly increased the likelihood of both probation violations (from an estimated 9% to 14%) and rearrests (from an estimated 54% to 58%)-but fees alone did not significantly predict either outcome. The effects of financial sanctions on recidivism were not moderated by the youth's race, socioeconomic status, or cumulative risk. CONCLUSIONS: Financial sanctions burden families but are weak risk factors for recidivism. If the goal is to prevent re-offending, reform efforts could focus on broader financial sanctions than just fees and prioritize more powerful levers like evidence-based programs and services. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

  PublisherDOI

• Estimated Effect of Fee Repeal on Family Financial Stress and Juvenile Probation Outcomes

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Racial disparity in federal pretrial detention recommendations: Trends over two decades and association with risk assessment implementation

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Estimated effect of fee repeal on family financial stress and juvenile probation outcomes.

  Psychology Public Policy and Law · 2024-09-09 · 1 citations

  article
  PublisherDOI

• Understanding racial disparities in pretrial detention recommendations to shape policy reform

  Criminology & Public Policy · 2023-03-14 · 9 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract Research Summary Federal pretrial services and probation officers assess defendants and make influential recommendations that defendants be either released or detained, based on their threat to community safety and risk of flight. To inform efforts to reduce disparities in pretrial detention, we examined officers’ decision making about 149,815 defendants across 81 districts. Overall, the probability of a detention recommendation was 34% higher for Black than White defendants. Racial disparities were most pronounced in ambiguous cases that invoked substantial officer discretion—including cases where the defendant had little or no criminal record. Nevertheless, mediation analyses revealed that up to 79% of the racial disparity in detention recommendations operates through institutionalized factors (i.e., pretrial policy) rather than personally mediated factors (e.g., implicit racism or classism). The lion's share of the disparity operates through one institutionalized factor alone: criminal history. Policy Implications This study illustrates an empirical strategy for understanding the pathways through which disparities operate, which is crucial for shaping effective solutions. Providing officers with training and decision guides could reduce personally mediated bias—which is crucial for high discretion cases. However, this study shows that disparities mostly flow through institutionalized bias. So, greater gains may be had by making strategic shifts in policies and their implementation. One promising direction is to corral criminal history by adopting a tight definition that demonstrably predicts violence and failure to appear, and limiting the weight assigned to criminal history versus other predictive factors, when making recommendations. Another promising direction is to adopt risk‐based release policies that leverage an existing tool to reduce both detention rates and racial disparities.

  PublisherDOI

• Getting traction on positive youth justice: Prosocial identity as a promising target for intervention.

  Psychology Public Policy and Law · 2023-12-07 · 1 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  The positive youth justice (PYJ) paradigm emphasizes building youths’ strengths and prosocial attributes to promote healthy development and desistance from antisocial behavior. Despite broad support for PYJ, direct application of the model to juvenile justice interventions has been limited by its multitude of components and global targets. In this article, we chart an innovative pathway from theory to intervention that centers on promoting prosocial identity, or the extent to which young people view themselves as prosocial.We synthesize theory and evidence from developmental science and criminology to demonstrate that—with individual effort and environmental support—a youth’s identity can be shifted in the prosocial direction to promote desistance from antisocial behavior. Our intervention framework specifies three targets for change: content of the future possible self (promoting hope for a future prosocial self, balanced by fear of a future antisocial self), prosocial identity prominence (importance to the self), and prosocial identity validation (confidence that the self can be achieved). To realize the promise of this framework, researchers and practitioners can build consensus on measures of prosocial identity, assess the extent to which identity changes in response to existing strength-based services, and further establish the protective utility of prosocial identity. Interventions that directly target identity content, prominence, or validation should also be tested for their impact on antisocial behavior. When combined with relevant policy levers, we expect this identity-based approach to add value to existing services. Understanding that shifts in identity are both possible and matter, can help chart new pathways for promoting positive youth development.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Sarah M. Manchak

  University of Cincinnati

  52 shared

• Edward P. Mulvey

  34 shared

• John F. Edens

  Texas A&M University

  29 shared

• Jennifer Eno Louden

  27 shared

• Charles W. Lidz

  University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School

  25 shared

• Scott O. Lilienfeld

  24 shared

• Kevin S. Douglas

  23 shared

• Norman G. Poythress

  22 shared

Awards & honors

• American Psychological Association's Division 41 Book Award…