About

Jack Baker is the William Alden Campbell and Martha Campbell Professor of Engineering and a professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He uses probabilistic and statistical tools to quantify and manage disaster risk and resilience. He has made contributions to risk analysis of spatially distributed systems, effects of climate change on disaster risk, characterization of earthquake ground motions, and simulation of post-disaster recovery. This work has influenced building codes, performance-based engineering guidelines, and catastrophe risk models.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Computer Security
• Business
• Risk analysis (engineering)
• Engineering
• Economics
• Artificial Intelligence
• Civil engineering
• Seismology
• Physics
• Geotechnical engineering
• Environmental resource management
• Natural resource economics
• Geography
• Construction engineering
• Geology
• Process management
• Environmental science

Selected publications

• 2025 Palisades Fire Recovery Analysis for the City of Malibu

  2026-02-23

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  This paper focuses on the recovery of destroyed single-family homes in the City of Malibu following the January 2025 Palisades Fire. It presents an overview of a year-long effort to collect data, analyse ongoing recovery efforts and forecast future recovery timelines using predictive models. The aim is to provide an estimate of what the community can expect from the recovery process under different future scenarios. Beyond forecasting, this effort aims to support recovery management by testing, designing, and monitoring recovery policies in a structured, data-driven, and as-objective- as-reasonably-possible way using the data and models presented in this analysis. Recovery of the City of Malibu following the 2025 Palisades Fire will take years. Whether the homeowners will need 2, 5, 7 or 12 years to rebuild their homes depends on numerous factors, some of which the city and the homeowners have a control over and some of which they do not. What is certain is that the administrative capacity of the city and homeowners decisions will have a significant impact on the recovery timeline. We forecast what this impact will be and assess the extent to which the city can expedite recovery by increasing its administrative capacity.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The vertical policy harmonization indices: assessing the gap between climate mitigation pledges and policies

  Climate Policy · 2025-01-02 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access1st author

  The effectiveness of the Paris Agreement in achieving its global temperature goal relies on countries adopting ambitious mitigation targets and introducing corresponding measures. But do countries adopt such corresponding climate policies? This paper introduces two Vertical Policy Harmonization Indices, which quantify the gap between a country's nationally determined contribution (NDC) mitigation pledge and its national mitigation policies. These indices incorporate three dimensions of climate policymaking: emission reduction targets, the sectors covered by those targets, and the policy instruments introduced to reduce emissions. By focusing on policy instruments and mixes, we adopt a novel public policy approach for the harmonization assessment. While the Target Index compares the level and scope of reduction targets in the NDCs and national policies of 105 countries, covering approximately 91% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Policy Effort Index also incorporates a comprehensive evaluation of the policy mix of selected countries. With the Policy Effort Index, we investigate 37 countries, covering over 70% of global GHG emissions. The indices show that three-quarters of the 105 countries have so far failed to translate their NDC targets into national policy. The remaining quarter has harmonized or even more ambitious national policies. Furthermore, countries show the most complete national policy mix in their most GHG-intensive sector, usually the energy sector. These insights demonstrate the indices' potential for enabling future research explaining the deviations between countries' domestic actions and their international pledges and evaluating the effectiveness of the progression mechanism as countries update their NDCs. Key policy insights Twenty-six of the 105 countries have national policies with GHG reduction targets either in line with or more ambitious than their NDC target. Seventy-nine countries (accounting for 50% of global emissions) have failed to translate their NDC target into a national policy. Countries tend to have their most balanced and intense policy mix in their largest emitting sector, which often is the energy sector. The coerciveness of policy instruments and the likelihood of their implementation remains low across sectors. EU membership, and development status appear to be indicative of the gap between climate mitigation pledges and policies.

  PublisherDOI

• A predictive model for household displacement duration after disasters

  Risk Analysis · 2025-02-25 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access

  According to recent Household Pulse Survey data, roughly 1.1% of households were displaced due to disasters in the United States in recent years. Although most households returned relatively quickly, 20% were displaced for longer than 1 month, and 14% had not returned by the time of the survey. Protracted displacement creates enormous hardships for affected households and communities, yet few disaster risk analyses account for the time component of displacement. Here, we propose predictive models for household displacement duration and return for practical integration within disaster risk analyses, ranging in complexity and predictive power. Two classification tree models are proposed to predict return outcomes with a minimum number of predictors: one that considers only physical factors (TreeP) and another that also considers socioeconomic factors (TreeP&S). A random forest model is also proposed (ForestP&S), improving the model's predictive power and highlighting the drivers of displacement duration and return outcomes. The results of the ForestP&S model highlight the importance of both physical factors (e.g., property damage and unsanitary conditions) and socioeconomic factors (e.g., tenure status and income per household member) on displacement outcomes. These models can be integrated within disaster risk analyses, as illustrated through a hurricane scenario analysis for Atlantic City, NJ. By integrating displacement duration models within risk analyses, we can capture the human impact of disasters more holistically and evaluate mitigation strategies aimed at reducing displacement risk.

  PublisherDOI

• Investigation of fixed and East-West, North-South, and azimuthal single-axis tracking for floating photovoltaics (Floatovoltaics) in the UK

  Energy 360. · 2025-11-29 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st author

  The United Kingdom has set ambitious goals to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, necessitating rapid and widespread growth in renewable energy sectors such as energy storage, wind, and solar photovoltaics (PV). However, challenges, including planning constraints, food security concerns, and competitive land prices, continually hinder PV development on land. Additionally, the UK's transmission and distribution grid faces overwhelming renewable connection requests, exacerbating the need for grid reinforcements. To overcome these obstacles, floating photovoltaics (FPV) present a promising solution, utilising water bodies to reduce reliance on land area. Co-locating with hydropower offers further advantages, such as shared grid capacity and accelerated connection dates. Furthermore, the recent ‘Solar roadmap’ report published by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) acknowledges and outlines support mechanisms for FPV. This work assesses the technical and financial viability of fixed and single-axis tracking FPV systems, conducting a UK-wide analysis of various configurations. Using PVsyst, simulations of multiple 10MWp FPV configurations across 12 UK locations provide insights into the distributional differences of specific production levels, the benefits of single-axis tracking, and the achieved levelised costs of electricity (LCOE). Results indicate that single-axis tracking, particularly azimuthal tracking, can significantly enhance electricity production, with increases of up to 26.9% annual energy production (AEP) over fixed arrays. LCOEs range from 12.75c/kWh (US cents) for fixed FPV in Scotland to 8.80c/kWh for azimuthal single-axis tracking FPV in the southwest; these results agree with the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) findings. Sensitivity analyses investigating the impact of increased structural balance of system (SBOS) and tracking balance of system (TBOS) costs on the achieved LCOEs highlighted that all three single-axis tracking types were viable methods of reducing LCOE in FPV arrays. With E-W single-axis tracking being the most sensitive, and azimuthal single-axis tracking being the least sensitive to increased SBOS and TBOS costs. Although currently exceeding the LCOE of land-based photovoltaics (LPV), factors such as reduced land costs, shorter grid queues, and advancements in tracking technology suggest a promising future for fixed and single-axis tracking FPV as a technically and financially viable option for renewable energy development and electricity decarbonisation efforts in the UK. • Azimuthal tracking FPV boosts annual energy production by up to 26.9% over fixed arrays. • LCOE ranges from 12.75c/kWh in Scotland to 8.80c/kWh for tracking FPV in the UK. • All single-axis tracking types reduce LCOE; azimuthal tracking is least sensitive.

  PublisherDOI

• Refined Adaptive Regional Input–Output Model: Application to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake

  Natural Hazards Review · 2025-08-05

  articleSenior author

  The Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model is popular for quantifying indirect economic losses, which stem from business and supply chain interruption. However, refining this model to study new contexts is challenging in its basic form due to low-resolution modeling of behavioral parameters and temporally static reconstruction rates. This paper presents a refined ARIO, or R-ARIO model that incorporates dynamic reconstruction rates, sector-level modeling of behavioral parameters, and explicit modeling of housing losses separately from productive capital losses. We perform a global variance-based sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential parameters on predicted indirect loss from the R-ARIO model. A case study application to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence isolates trends in housing and economic recovery, capturing temporal differences in reconstruction demand and uncertainty across economic indicators.

  PublisherDOI

• Quantifying climate change risk through natural hazard losses to inform adaptation action

  Climatic Change · 2025-04-01 · 2 citations

  articleSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Macroeconomic models for predicting indirect impacts of disasters: A review

  Resilient Cities and Structures · 2025-07-16 · 5 citations

  reviewOpen accessSenior author

  Interdependencies between critical infrastructures and the economy amplify the effects of damage caused by disasters. The growing interest in impacts beyond physical damage and community resilience has spurred a surge in literature on economic modeling methodologies for estimating indirect economic impacts of disasters and the recovery of economic activity over time. In this review, we present a framework for categorizing modeling approaches that assess indirect economic impacts across natural hazards and anthropogenic disasters such as cyber attacks. We first conduct a comparative analysis of macroeconomic models, focusing on the approaches capturing sectoral interdependencies. These include the Leontief Input-Output (I/O) model, the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM), the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM), the Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model, and the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and its extensions. We evaluate their applicability to disaster scenarios based on input data availability, the compatibility of model assumptions, and output capabilities. We also reveal the functional relationships of input data and output metrics across economic modeling approaches for inter-sectoral impacts. Furthermore, we examine how the damage mechanisms posed by different types of disasters translate into model inputs and impact modeling processes. This synthesis provides guidance for researchers and practitioners in selecting and configuring models based on specific disaster scenarios. It also identifies the gaps in the literature, including the need for a deeper understanding of model performance reliability, key drivers of economic outcomes in different disaster contexts, and the disparities in modeling approach applications across various hazard types.

  PublisherDOI

• SELECTING THREE COMPONENTS OF GROUND MOTIONS FROM CONDITIONAL SPECTRA FOR MULTIPLE STRIPE ANALYSES

  World Conference of Earthquake Engineering · 2025-12-18 · 4 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• A platform to map the mind–mitochondria connection and the hallmarks of psychobiology: the MiSBIE study

  Trends in Endocrinology and Metabolism · 2024-10-01 · 33 citations

  reviewOpen access

  Health emerges from coordinated psychobiological processes powered by mitochondrial energy transformation. But how do mitochondria regulate the multisystem responses that shape resilience and disease risk across the lifespan? The Mitochondrial Stress, Brain Imaging, and Epigenetics (MiSBIE) study was established to address this question and determine how mitochondria influence the interconnected neuroendocrine, immune, metabolic, cardiovascular, cognitive, and emotional systems among individuals spanning the spectrum of mitochondrial energy transformation capacity, including participants with rare mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lesions causing mitochondrial diseases (MitoDs). This interdisciplinary effort is expected to generate new insights into the pathophysiology of MitoDs, provide a foundation to develop novel biomarkers of human health, and integrate our fragmented knowledge of bioenergetic, brain-body, and mind-mitochondria processes relevant to medicine and public health.

  PublisherDOI

• A Platform to Map the Mind-Mitochondria Connection and the Hallmarks of Psychobiology: The MiSBIE Study

  2024-07-22 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen access

  Health emerges from coordinated psychobiological processes powered by mitochondrial energy transformation. But how do mitochondria regulate the multisystem responses that shape resilience and disease risk across the lifespan? The Mitochondrial Stress, Brain Imaging, and Epigenetics (MiSBIE) study was established to address this question and determine how mitochondria influence the interconnected neuroendocrine, immune, metabolic, cardiovascular, cognitive, and emotional systems among individuals spanning the spectrum of mitochondrial energy transformation capacity, including participants with rare mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lesions causing mitochondrial diseases (MitoDs). This interdisciplinary effort is expected to generate new insights into the pathophysiology of MitoDs, provide a foundation to develop novel biomarkers of human health, and integrate our fragmented knowledge of bioenergetic, brain–body, and mind–mitochondria processes relevant to medicine and public health.

  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• A Comprehensive Approach for Incorporating the Effects of Near-Fault Directivity into Design Criteria

  NSF · $250k · 2008–2011

• Collaborative Research: Characterization of Random Fields and their Impact on the Mechanics of Geosystems at Multiple Scales

  NSF · $92k · 2007–2010

• CAREER: Assessment of Infrastructure Risk Under Natural Disasters in a Multiscale Probabilistic Framework

  NSF · $404k · 2010–2016

• Assessing Urban Post-Earthquake Community Recovery to Inform Pre-Disaster Planning

  NSF · $309k · 2021–2025

Frequent coauthors

• Gregory G. Deierlein

  Stanford University

  36 shared

• David A. Swanson

  University of Washington

  34 shared

• Brendon Bradley

  University of Canterbury

  23 shared

• Nicolas Luco

  21 shared

• Jeff Tayman

  20 shared

• Curt B. Haselton

  Baker Engineering and Risk Consultants (United States)

  19 shared

• Lucky M. Tedrow

  Western Washington University

  18 shared

• Rodrigo Costa

  15 shared

Labs

• Vice Provost for Student AffairsPI

  Not provided

Education

• M.S., Structural Engineering

  Stanford University

  2002

• Ph.D., Structural Engineering

  Stanford University

  2005

• M.S., Statistics

  Stanford University

  2004

• B.A., Mathematics/Physics

  Whitman College

  2000

Awards & honors

• William B. Joyner Lecture Award
• Walter L. Huber Prize
• Helmut Krawinkler Award
• Eugene L. Grant Award