About

Ernesto Alvarado is a Research Associate Professor at the University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest Sciences. His research areas include climate change and adaptation, ecosystem science, environmental policy, economics and trade, fire science, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, statistics, spatial analysis, and modeling. He specializes in wildland fire science, fire ecology and management, combustion and fire behavior, carbon emissions, fire and climate change, and quantitative modeling. His academic background includes a B.S. in Agricultural Engineering with a minor in plant protection from Universidad Autonoma Chapingo in Mexico, an M.S. in Silviculture and Forest Management from Postgraduate College, Chapingo, Mexico, and a Ph.D. in Wildland Fire Sciences from the University of Washington. His work involves studying fire effects, fuel characterization, and fire behavior, with current sponsored projects focusing on air quality impacts from wildfires, decision-making tools for fire management, and the application of spatial technologies in fire research.

Research topics

• Biology
• Ecology
• Geography
• Environmental resource management
• Environmental planning
• Environmental health
• Environmental protection
• Medicine
• Environmental science

Selected publications

• Activity and Performance of Zero and Near-Zero Emissions Port Equipment for Emissions Reduction in the Maritime Sector

  SAE technical papers on CD-ROM/SAE technical paper series · 2025-03-31 · 1 citations

  article

  <div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Marine ports are an important source of emissions in many urban areas, and many ports are implementing plans to reduce emissions and greenhouse gases using zero-emission cargo handling equipment. This paper evaluates the performance and activity profiles for various zero-emission (ZE) cargo transport equipment being demonstrated at different ports in California. This included 23 battery-electric (BE) 8,000 lb. (8K) and 36,000 lb. (36K) forklifts, a BE railcar mover, and an electrified rubber-tired gantry crane (eRTG). The study focused on evaluating the performance of the ZE equipment in terms of activity patterns and the potential emissions reductions. Data loggers were used to collect activity data, including hours of use, energy consumption, and charging information over periods from 6 to 21 months. The results showed that the BE forklifts, BE railcar mover, and the eRTG averaged 2-3 hours, 5 hours, and 14 hours of use per day of operation, respectively. The average energy use for the 8k and 36k, railcar mover, and eRTG were 7.5 kWh, 17.2 kWh, 130.7 kWh and 605 kWh, respectively. Energy consumption per day of operation in terms of battery state of charge (SOC) use, for the 8K and 36K forklifts were on average, 40% and 26%, respectively. The study provides valuable insights into the operational characteristics of ZE port equipment. The annual emissions of the conventional port equipment are estimated and compared with estimated emissions generated by electricity generation that would be required to operate the electric equipment. This comparison showed nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions could be reduced 76% to 99% for the BE equipment, carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions could be reduced from 76% to 95% compared to the conventional equipment for the BE forklifts and the eRTG and 26% for the railcar mover, and particulate matter (PM) emissions for the electric equipment would negligible.</div></div>

  PublisherDOI

• Apple Incorporated: AirTags and Unwanted Surveillance

  2024-01-01

  book1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Modeling the Monthly Distribution of MODIS Active Fire Detections from a Satellite-Derived Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Ecoregion in Mexico

  Fire · 2023-12-26 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  The knowledge of the effects of fuel dryness on fire occurrence is critical for sound forest fire management planning, particularly in a changing climate. This study aimed to analyze the monthly distributions of MODIS active fire (AF) detections and their relationships with a fuel dryness index (FDI) based on satellite-derived weather and vegetation greenness. Monthly AF distributions showed unimodal distributions against FDI, which were described using generalized Weibull equations, fitting a total of 19 vegetation types and ecoregions analyzed in Mexico. Monthly peaks of fire activity occurred at lower FDI values (wetter fuels) in more hygrophytic ecosystems and ecoregions, such as wet tropical forests, compared to higher fire activity in higher FDI values (drier fuels) for the more arid ecosystems, such as desert shrublands. In addition, the range of fuel dryness at which most monthly fire activity occurred was wider for wetter vegetation types and regions compared to a narrower range of fuel dryness for higher monthly fire occurrence in the more arid vegetation types and ecoregions. The results from the current study contribute towards improving our understanding of the relationships between fuel dryness and fire occurrence in a variety of vegetation types and regions in Mexico.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Different approaches make comparing studies of burn severity challenging: a review of methods used to link remotely sensed data with the Composite Burn Index

  International Journal of Wildland Fire · 2023-02-06 · 30 citations

  reviewOpen accessSenior author

  The Composite Burn Index (CBI) is commonly linked to remotely sensed data to understand spatial and temporal patterns of burn severity. However, a comprehensive understanding of the tradeoffs between different methods used to model CBI with remotely sensed data is lacking. To help understand the current state of the science, provide a blueprint towards conducting broad-scale meta-analyses, and identify key decision points and potential rationale, we conducted a review of studies that linked remotely sensed data to continuous estimates of burn severity measured with the CBI and related methods. We provide a roadmap of the different methodologies applied and examine potential rationales used to justify them. Our findings largely reflect methods applied in North America – particularly in the western USA – due to the high number of studies in that region. We find the use of different methods across studies introduces variations that make it difficult to compare outcomes. Additionally, the existing suite of comparative studies focuses on one or few of many possible sources of uncertainty. Thus, compounding error and propagation throughout the many decisions made during analysis is not well understood. Finally, we suggest a broad set of methodological information and key rationales for decision-making that could facilitate future reviews.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Comment on egusphere-2022-742

  2023-01-17

  peer-reviewOpen accessCorresponding

  <strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Statistical analyses of wildfire growth are rarely undertaken, particularly in South America. In this study, we describe a simple and intuitive difference equation model of wildfire growth that uses a spread parameter to control the radial speed of the modeled fire and an extinguish parameter to control the rate at which the burning perimeter becomes inactive. Using data from the GlobFire project, we estimate these two parameters for 1003 large, multi-day fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020. For four fire-prone ecoregions within Peru, a set of 18 generalized linear models are fit for each parameter that use fire danger indexes and land cover covariates. Akaike weights are used to identify the best-approximating model&nbsp;and quantify model uncertainty. We find that, in most cases, increased spread rates and extinguish rates are positively associated with fire danger indexes. When fire danger indexes are included in the models, the spread component is usually the best choice. We also find that forest cover is negatively associated with spread rates and extinguish rates in tropical forests, and that anthropogenic cover is negatively associated with spread rates in xeric ecoregions. We explore potential applications of this model to wildfire risk assessment and burned area forecasting.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Learning to live with smoke: characterizing wildland fire and prescribed fire smoke risk communication in rural Washington

  Environmental Research Health · 2023-06-01 · 9 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract Extreme smoke events from wildland fires are increasing in frequency and intensity across the country. Risk communication around wildland and prescribed fires is an essential component of both smoke-readiness and resilience. To date, little research has been conducted on how smoke exposure risks can be communicated effectively, especially within the context of rural and tribal communities, who experience a disproportionate burden of smoke risks and impacts. This qualitative study analyzed how tribal and non-tribal communities in the Okanogan River Airshed Emphasis Area (ORAEA) receive and share information about smoke exposure to highlight gaps and communication opportunities for smoke risk communication. The ORAEA is a region of north-central Washington that is frequently blanketed with smoke year-round from wildland fire in the summer, prescribed fire in the fall and spring, and wood burning stoves in the winter. This study was the result of a partnership between the Okanogan River Airshed Partnership, the Natural Resource Division for the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, the Colville Environmental Trust Air Quality Program, and the University of Washington. The study team conducted seventeen key informant interviews and six focus groups to identify community perceptions of smoke exposure and describe its impact. A thematic analysis of interview and focus group data identified five themes around wildfire smoke risk communication: (1) perception of the health risks of smoke; (2) current ways of sharing information about smoke; (3) trusted sources of information; (4) gaps and communication opportunities; and (5) perceptions of prescribed fire. Based on these themes, we developed a set of six recommended actions. To create effective smoke risk communication that may be applicable to smoke-impacted regions across the country, messaging must address barriers to action, be rooted in community perceptions of risk, and be delivered through trusted channels.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Vaccination and mortality from COVID-19: a comparative study between hemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, and non-dialysis adult population in Panama

  International Urology and Nephrology · 2023-02-24 · 7 citations

  articleOpen access

  PURPOSE: Dialysis patients have a different response than the non-dialysis population to infection with COVID-19. This study evaluates the prevalence of infection and lethality in patients receiving hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis in Panama, compared to non-dialysis adult population, and reports of adverse events of vaccination. METHODS: This is a prospective, multi-center cohort study of spatients aged 18 years or older and receiving in-center hemodialysis or ambulatory peritoneal dialysis in 13 centers in Panama from March 2021 to 2022. For comparison with general population, the study used an extended period of two years. RESULTS: A total of 1531 patients receiving dialysis treatment accepted to participate. PD patients represented an 18% of study patients. Lethality was higher in peritoneal dialysis patients with COVID-19 infection than in hemodialysis in the study group (p 0.02). Total deaths in dialysis patients for 2020 were 156 patients, before vaccination; 79 in 2021; and 25 for the first trimester of 2022. Lethality for the period of 2020-2022 was 9.3% for dialysis patients and 0.2% for non-dialysis population. There was no difference in symptoms in first dose, but with second dose, hemodialysis patients reported fewer symptoms than peritoneal dialysis patients (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Ninety one percent of people in the country received BNT162b2 Pfizer BionTech vaccine. Lethality decreased from 30 to 5% once vaccination was available. There were no severe adverse effects and symptoms reported were less frequent than in general population, probably due to low reactogenicity in dialysis patients, or better tolerance to pain.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Estimated impacts of forest restoration scenarios on smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers in California

  Environmental Research Letters · 2023-12-18 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract As wildfires continue to worsen across western United States, forest managers are increasingly employing prescribed burns as a way to reduce excess fuels and future wildfire risk. While the ecological benefits of these fuel treatments are clear, little is known about the smoke exposure tradeoffs of using prescribed burns to mitigate wildfires, particularly among at-risk populations. Outdoor agricultural workers are a population at increased risk of smoke exposure because of their time spent outside and the physical demands of their work. Here, we assess the smoke exposure impacts among outdoor agricultural workers resulting from the implementation of six forest management scenarios proposed for a landscape in the Central Sierra, California. We leverage emissions estimates from LANDIS-II to model daily PM 2.5 concentrations with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) and link those to agricultural employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find a u-shaped result, in that moderate amounts of prescribed burning result in the greatest reduction in total smoke exposure among outdoor agricultural workers, particularly during months of peak agricultural activity due to wildfire-specific smoke reductions. The reduction in total smoke exposure, relative to scenarios with the least amount of management, decreases as more prescribed burning is applied to the landscape due to the contributions of the fuel treatments themselves to overall smoke burden. The results of this analysis may contribute to preparedness efforts aimed at reducing smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers, while also informing forest management planning for this specific landscape.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Estimating the effects of meteorology and land cover on fire growth in Peru using a novel difference equation model

  Natural hazards and earth system sciences · 2023-07-24 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract. Statistical analyses of wildfire growth are rarely undertaken, particularly in South America. In this study, we describe a simple and intuitive difference equation model of wildfire growth that uses a spread parameter to control the radial speed of the modeled fire and an extinguish parameter to control the rate at which the burning perimeter becomes inactive. Using data from the GlobFire project, we estimate these two parameters for 1003 large, multi-day fires in Peru between 2001 and 2020. For four fire-prone ecoregions within Peru, a set of 24 generalized linear models are fit for each parameter that use fire danger indexes and land cover covariates. Akaike weights are used to identify the best-approximating model and quantify model uncertainty. We find that, in most cases, increased spread rates and extinguish rates are positively associated with fire danger indexes. When fire danger indexes are included in the models, the spread component is usually the best choice, but we also find instances when the fire weather index and burning index are selected. We also find that grassland cover is positively associated with spread rates and extinguish rates in tropical forests, and that anthropogenic cover is negatively associated with spread rates in xeric ecoregions. We explore potential applications of this model to wildfire risk assessment and burned area forecasting.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Forecasting wildfire hazard across northwestern south America

  Sustainable Forestry · 2023-10-22 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r2 in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Harry Podschwit

  17 shared

• W. Matt Jolly

  Rocky Mountain Research Station

  16 shared

• João Andrade de Carvalho

  Instituto Português de Oncologia Francisco Gentil

  15 shared

• David Sandberg

  Chalmers University of Technology

  11 shared

• Yufei Zou

  11 shared

• Carlos Veras

  11 shared

• Roger D. Ottmar

  Pacific Northwest Research Station

  9 shared

• Satyam Verma

  Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute

  9 shared

Education

• Ph.D., Environmental Science

  University of Washington

  2000

• M.S., Environmental Science

  University of Washington

  1996

• B.S., Environmental Science

  University of Washington

  1994