Eben Lazarus

About

I am an assistant professor of finance at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, as well as a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. My research interests include asset pricing, macroeconomics, behavioral economics, and time-series econometrics.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Econometrics
• Financial economics
• Finance
• Applied mathematics
• Statistics
• Mathematics
• Combinatorics
• Monetary economics
• Economics

Selected publications

• Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2022 · 42 citations

  PublisherDOI

• Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals

  The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2024-10-14 · 33 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a model in which people know which direction to update in, but not exactly how much to update, we hypothesize that people will overinfer from weak signals and underinfer from strong signals. We then test this hypothesis across four different environments: abstract expe…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Forward Return Expectations

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2023-09-01 · 13 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  We measure investors' short-and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data.These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own shortterm expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations.While contemporaneous short-term expectations are not countercyclical across all data sources, we find that forward expectations are consistently countercyclical, and excessively so: in bad times, forward expectations are higher than justifi…

  PublisherDOI

• Forward Return Expectations

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2023-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals

  arXiv (Cornell University) · 2021-09-20 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen access

  When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. In this paper, we show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a model in which people know which direction to update in, but not exactly how much to update, we hypothesize that people will overinfer from weak signals and underinfer from strong signals. We then test this hypothesis across four different environments: abstrac…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• James H. Stock

  Harvard University

  8 shared

• Niels Joachim Gormsen

  7 shared

• Ned Augenblick

  University of California, Berkeley

  5 shared

• Mark W. Watson

  5 shared

• Daniel Lewis

  5 shared

• Michael Thaler

  3 shared

• Mihir Gandhi

  3 shared

• D M Yajko

  1 shared

Similar researchers at University of California, Berkeley

• Ulrike Malmendierh-77
• Martin Lettauh-71
• Adair Morseh-56