
Christopher Adolph
· ProfessorVerifiedUniversity of Washington · Political Science
Active 2003–2024
About
Christopher Adolph is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington, Seattle, where he also serves as an Adjunct Professor of Statistics and the Associate Director of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University in 2005, an M.A. from Harvard in 2000, and a B.A. in Political Science, Economics, and History from Rice University in 1998. His research focuses on comparative politics, political economy, health policy, and quantitative methods, with a particular interest in data visualization, computational methods, and statistical analysis. Adolph has served as a Robert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan and has been involved in instructing at the Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis. He was the faculty lead for the COVID-19 State Policy Project at the University of Washington, tracking and analyzing social distancing and mask policies across U.S. states during 2020-2021. He is the author of the book 'Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics: The Myth of Neutrality,' which received the International Political Science Association's Charles H. Levine Prize. His research has been published in numerous prominent journals, including the American Political Science Review, JAMA, The Lancet, Nature Medicine, and Perspectives on Politics, among others.
Research topics
- Sociology
- Political Science
- Medicine
- Political economy
- Public administration
- Law
- Psychiatry
- Internal medicine
- Computer Science
- Economics
- Statistics
- Demography
- Finance
- Business
- Pediatrics
- Econometrics
- Geography
- Virology
- Public economics
- Environmental health
- Mathematics
Selected publications
Frontiers in Veterinary Science · 2024-06-24 · 10 citations
reviewOpen accessMacrocyclic lactones (MLs) are the only drug class currently licensed for heartworm disease prophylaxis. Macrocyclic lactones kill third- and fourth-stage larvae of Dirofilaria immitis , thus preventing the development of adult worms in dogs, which are responsible for heartworm disease, a potentially life-threatening condition. Despite considerable overlap in terms of endectocide spectrum, several important differences distinguish moxidectin from other MLs. Moxidectin has beneficial pharmacokinetic characteristics, such as a longer half-life and greater tissue distribution compared to ivermectin. Additionally, moxidectin has a greater margin of safety compared to ivermectin in dogs with ABCB1 (previously MDR1) gene-defect, which is commonly recognized in collies and other breeds. Multiple laboratory studies have shown that moxidectin is more effective than other commonly used heartworm preventives against resistant strains of D. immitis . This improved efficacy benefits individual dogs and helps reduce the risk of spreading resistant strains within the community. Despite the presence of proven resistant strains in the United States, non-compliance with preventive measures remains a major factor contributing to the diagnosis of heartworm disease in dogs. In retrospective analyses, the oral moxidectin combination product Simparica Trio ® (sarolaner, moxidectin, and pyrantel) was associated with increased compliance, resulting in more time of protection compared to dogs receiving flea/tick and heartworm preventive products separately. Compliance with the extended-release moxidectin injectables ProHeart ® 6 and ProHeart ® 12 was higher than with monthly heartworm preventives, as they provide 6 months or a full year of protection with one single injection, respectively, and revenues remain in the veterinary clinics as injectable moxidectin cannot be sourced through online retailers.
Frontiers in Veterinary Science · 2024-01-15 · 2 citations
articleOpen accessBackground This study had two objectives: first, to examine the association between the history of heartworm preventive purchase compliance and the risk of positive heartworm tests, and second to preliminarily investigate the long-term cardiac outcomes of heartworm disease in dogs that had undergone successful adulticidal therapy. Methods A retrospective cohort study design was used for both analyses, using anonymous transaction data from Covetrus (retrospective analysis 1) and anonymized medical records from Banfield Pet Hospital (retrospective analysis 2), both including canine patients across the USA. The first analysis examined the relative risk (RR) of a positive heartworm test in dogs with lapses in heartworm preventive purchase history compared to dogs that had no history of a preventive purchase six to 24 months prior to the test. In the second analysis, a long-term evaluation of structured diagnostic codes pertaining to cardiac diseases and risk assessment of outcomes was performed in dogs that had previously been successfully treated for heartworm disease compared to dogs that never had a positive heartworm test. Results 83,478 unique patients were included in the first analysis. Compared to 32,413 dogs with no history of a heartworm preventive purchase, 44,410 dogs with lapses in monthly preventive purchases had a reduced risk of testing positive for heartworm disease (RR = 0.36, p < 0.0001). Dogs ( n = 6,655) with lapses in injectable heartworm preventive administration had a decreased risk of a positive test versus dogs with no preventive purchases (RR = 0.15, p < 0.0001), as well as versus dogs with lapses in monthly heartworm preventive purchases (RR = 0.28, p = 0.0024). In the second analysis, 6,138 patients treated for heartworm infection were found to have significantly ( p < 0.001) elevated risks of right heart failure (RR = 3.59), left heart failure (RR = 1.83), or cardiomyopathy (RR = 2.79) compared to 4,022,752 patients that never had a positive heartworm test. Conclusion This study highlights the importance of compliance with heartworm preventive guidelines, to reduce the risk of heartworm disease in dogs, which is not only a potentially life-threatening condition in the short-term but also associated with long-term negative cardiac outcomes.
BMJ Open · 2024-06-01 · 2 citations
articleOpen accessBackground National-level coverage estimates of maternal and child health (MCH) services mask district-level and community-level geographical inequities. The purpose of this study is to estimate grid-level coverage of essential MCH services in Nigeria using machine learning techniques. Methods Essential MCH services in this study included antenatal care, facility-based delivery, childhood vaccinations and treatments of childhood illnesses. We estimated generalised additive models (GAMs) and gradient boosting regressions (GB) for each essential MCH service using data from five national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and geospatial socioeconomic, environmental and physical characteristics. Using the best-performed model for each service, we map predicted coverage at 1 km 2 and 5 km 2 spatial resolutions in urban and rural areas, respectively. Results GAMs consistently outperformed GB models across a range of essential MCH services, demonstrating low systematic prediction errors. High-resolution maps revealed stark geographic disparities in MCH service coverage, especially between rural and urban areas and among different states and service types. Temporal trends indicated an overall increase in MCH service coverage from 2003 to 2018, although with variations by service type and location. Priority areas with lower coverage of both maternal and vaccination services were identified, mostly located in the northern parts of Nigeria. Conclusion High-resolution spatial estimates can guide geographic prioritisation and help develop better strategies for implementation plans, allowing limited resources to be targeted to areas with lower coverage of essential MCH services.
The Lancet · 2023-03-23 · 146 citations
articleOpen accessBACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Parasites & Vectors · 2023-04-27 · 9 citations
articleOpen accessSenior authorAbstract Background Compliance failure with administration of heartworm (HW) disease preventives has been reported as the main contributor to HW disease incidence in medicalized dogs. This study aimed to evaluate purchase compliance with different canine HW preventive products in the USA. Methods Anonymized transaction data from clinics throughout the USA served as the basis for two retrospective analyses. We first examined the monthly equivalent doses of HW preventive purchases from clinics that had implemented extended-release moxidectin injectables ProHeart ® 6 (PH6) and/or ProHeart ® 12 (PH12) compared to clinics that prescribed monthly HW preventatives (MHWP) only. In the second analysis, the purchase compliance in practices that dispensed only flea and tick (FT) and HW products separately but did not dispense combination products (dual-therapy practices) was compared to the purchase compliance with the combination product Simparica Trio ® (sarolaner, moxidectin, and pyrantel chewable tablets), purchased in clinics having implemented combination therapy in their formulary (combination-therapy practices). In both analyses, the numbers of monthly doses dispensed annually per dog were calculated. Results Transaction data from 3,539,990 dogs in 4615 practices were included in the first analysis. In dogs administered PH12 or PH6, the numbers of monthly equivalent doses were 12 and 8.1, respectively. In both clinic types, the average annual number of MHWP doses totaled 7.3. In the second analysis, a total of 919 practices were identified as combination-therapy practices and 434 as dual-therapy-only practices. A total of 246,654 dogs (160,854 dogs in dual-therapy practices and 85,800 dogs in combination-therapy practices) were included in the calculation of the average annual number of monthly doses, which totaled 6.8 (HW preventive products) and 4.4 (FT products) in dual-therapy practices compared to 7.2 months for both FT and HW preventives with Simparica Trio ® across both practice types. Conclusions The injectable HW preventive PH12 is the only product that provides 12 months of heartworm disease prevention in a single veterinarian-administered injection. When choosing a monthly preventive, the combination therapy was associated with a greater purchase compliance compared with FT and HW products being dispensed separately. Graphical Abstract
BMJ Open · 2022-09-01 · 3 citations
articleOpen accessOBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify the individual and contextual factors consistently associated with utilisation of essential maternal and child health services in Nigeria across time and household geolocation. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Secondary data from five nationally representative household surveys conducted in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 were used in this study. The study participants are women and children depending on essential maternal and child health (MCH) services. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measures were indicators of whether participants used each of the following essential MCH services: antenatal care, facility-based delivery, modern contraceptive use, childhood immunisations (BCG, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis/Pentavalent and measles) and treatments of childhood illnesses (fever, cough and diarrhoea). METHODS: We estimated generalised additive models with logit links and smoothing terms for households' geolocation and survey years. RESULTS: Higher maternal education and households' wealth were significantly associated with utilisation of all types of essential MCH services (p<0.05). On the other hand, households with more children under 5 years of age and in poor communities were significantly less likely to use essential MCH services (p<0.05). Except for childhood immunisations, greater access to transport was positively associated with utilisation (p<0.05). Households with longer travel times to the most accessible health facility were less likely to use all types of essential MCH services (p<0.05), except modern contraceptive use and treatment of childhood fever and/or cough. CONCLUSION: This study adds to the evidence that maternal education and household wealth status are consistently associated with utilisation of essential MCH services across time and space. To increase utilisation of essential MCH services across different geolocations, interventions targeting poor communities and households with more children under 5 years of age should be appropriately designed. Moreover, additional interventions should prioritise to reduce inequities of essential MCH service utilisation between the wealth quantiles and between education status.
The Lancet · 2022-04-08 · 316 citations
articleOpen accessBACKGROUND: ) are essential for understanding the determinants of past infection, current transmission patterns, and a population's susceptibility to future infection with the same variant. Although several studies have estimated cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections in select locations at specific points in time, all of these analyses have relied on biased data inputs that were not adequately corrected for. In this study, we aimed to provide a novel approach to estimating past SARS-CoV-2 daily infections, cumulative infections, and the proportion of the population infected, for 190 countries and territories from the start of the pandemic to Nov 14, 2021. This approach combines data from reported cases, reported deaths, excess deaths attributable to COVID-19, hospitalisations, and seroprevalence surveys to produce more robust estimates that minimise constituent biases. METHODS: by location and day based on assumptions of duration from infection to infectiousness and time an individual spent being infectious. For each of these quantities, we estimated a distribution based on an ensemble framework that captured uncertainty in data sources, model design, and parameter assumptions. FINDINGS: , indicating that there is not a clear herd immunity threshold observed in the data. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 has already had a staggering impact on the world up to the beginning of the omicron (B.1.1.529) wave, with over 40% of the global population infected at least once by Nov 14, 2021. The vast differences in cumulative proportion of the population infected across locations could help policy makers identify the transmission-prevention strategies that have been most effective, as well as the populations at greatest risk for future infection. This information might also be useful for targeted transmission-prevention interventions, including vaccine prioritisation. Our statistical approach to estimating SARS-CoV-2 infection allows estimates to be updated and disseminated rapidly on the basis of newly available data, which has and will be crucially important for timely COVID-19 research, science, and policy responses. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, and J and E Nordstrom.
JAMA · 2022 · 897 citations
- Medicine
- Demography
- Pediatrics
Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2022 · 86 citations
- Econometrics
- Statistics
- Virology
Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery. Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane. Key Points: The substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.
Governor Partisanship Explains the Adoption of Statewide Mask Mandates in Response to COVID-19
State Politics & Policy Quarterly · 2021-10-20 · 57 citations
articleOpen access1st authorCorrespondingAbstract Public mask use has emerged as a key tool in response to COVID-19. We develop a classification of statewide mask mandates that reveals variation in their scope and timing. Some US states quickly mandated wearing of face coverings in most public spaces, whereas others issued narrow mandates or no mandate at all. We consider how differences in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators and partisan politics affect when states adopted broad mask mandates, starting with the earliest mandates in April 2020 and continuing through the end of 2020. The most important predictor is the presence of a Republican governor, delaying statewide indoor mask mandates an estimated 98.0 days on average. COVID-19 indicators such as confirmed case or death rates are much less important predictors. This finding highlights a key challenge to public efforts to increase mask wearing, one of the most effective tools for preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 while restoring economic activity.
Frequent coauthors
- 38 shared
Nancy Fullman
- 33 shared
Bree Bang-Jensen
University of Pittsburgh
- 33 shared
Aleksandr Y. Aravkin
University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory
- 30 shared
Grace Reinke
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- 29 shared
Xiaochen Dai
- 29 shared
James K. Collins
University of Washington
- 29 shared
Damian Santomauro
- 29 shared
David M. Pigott
Labs
Christopher Adolph's Research LabPI
Education
- 2005
Ph.D., Department of Government
Harvard University
Awards & honors
- International Political Science Association's Charles H. Lev…
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