About

Charles Moss is a Professor in the Food and Resource Economics Department at the University of Florida, affiliated with the Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. He grew up on a cattle and wheat farm in Western Oklahoma and earned his B.S. in Agricultural Economics and Accounting from Oklahoma State University in 1982, followed by an M.S. in Agricultural Economics in 1984. He completed his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics at Purdue University in 1987. Since joining the University of Florida in September 1987, he has focused his research on financial risk and stress in the farm sector, applying quantitative methods to a range of issues including water resource management, timber resources, citrus crop decisions, coffee marketing in Mexico, sugar trade issues, technology adoption such as precision agriculture, invasive species, and agricultural productivity measures. His extensive research has resulted in over 200 publications, including six edited volumes, 27 book chapters, and 140 refereed journal articles. Dr. Moss has received numerous awards, including the Southern Agricultural Economics Association's Lifetime Achievement Award in 2013, and has served as Co-Editor of the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. His teaching emphasizes empirical analysis of agricultural decision-making, with courses on agricultural production economics and the economics of business decisions.

Research topics

• Medicine
• Environmental health
• Computer Science
• Business
• Economics
• Economic growth
• Virology
• Actuarial science
• Development economics

Selected publications

• Net present value procedure for the 1982 tax code

  SHAREOK (University of Oklahoma; Oklahoma State University; Central Oklahoma University) · 2026-02-25

  article1st authorCorresponding
  Publisher

• Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in East Asia and the Pacific Region: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2025-01-12 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific region that we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: First, we aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction of the pandemic in East Asia and the Pacific region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the dynamic history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Finally, we aimed to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in East Asia and the Pacific region. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether the regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Several countries in East Asia and the Pacific region had COVID-19 transmission rates above an outbreak threshold at the point of the WHO declaration (Brunei, New Zealand, Australia, and South Korea). However, the regional transmission rate had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months. In the rolling 6-month window t test for regional outbreak status, the final P value ≤.10 implies a rejection of the null hypothesis (at the α=.10 level) that the region as a whole was not in an outbreak for the period from November 5, 2022, to May 5, 2023. From January 2022 onward, nearly every sequenced SARS-CoV-2 specimen in the region was identified as the Omicron variant. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in East Asia and the Pacific region, transmission rates had fallen below outbreak status by the time of the WHO declaration. Compared to other global regions, East Asia and the Pacific region had the latest outbreaks driven by the Omicron variant. COVID-19 appears to be endemic in the region, no longer reaching the threshold for a pandemic definition. However, the late outbreaks raise uncertainty about whether the pandemic was truly over in the region at the time of the WHO declaration.

  PublisherDOI

• Interest rates and agricultural debt: estimating the marginal interest rate

  Agricultural Finance Review · 2025-02-14

  article1st authorCorresponding

  Purpose While the average cost of debt capital can be calculated from historical financial statement data by dividing the interest paid each year by the total level of debt, this average cost of debt provides little information regarding the true cost of acquiring additional debt capital, and hence, its use is potentially problematic in financial decision-making. This study focuses on the linkage between observed changes in the average interest rates calculated from financial statements (balance sheet and income statement) and the marginal cost of borrowing or the cost of acquiring new debt. Motivated by the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the marginal cost of capital is modeled as a function of a risk-free interest rate (the return on Moody’s Aaa bonds), returns on the S\&P stock index capturing overall market returns and a portfolio of agricultural stocks to represent farm sector-specific risks. Design/methodology/approach Using a unique dataset constructed from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) state-level Financial Performance of the Farm Sector data for the years 1960 through 2003 and state-level Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data for the years 2003–2014 and Bayesian methods, we model the observed interest rate as an autoregressive function controlling for changes in debt and key rates of return in the general economy. Findings The results indicate that the marginal interest rate is a function of the Aaa corporate bond rate and the stock market. We also find evidence of a negative relationship between returns to a portfolio of agricultural stocks and the marginal interest rate. Overall, the findings suggest that the imputed interest rate frequently misrepresents the marginal cost of debt capital. Originality/value Most farm financial datasets allow for the analysis of the farm firm’s average interest rate. However, farmers make decisions based on the marginal cost of credit – the interest rate on a newly issued note. This study estimates this marginal interest rate for the 15 states for which the ARMS data are representative for the years 1960 through 2014 and compares the estimated marginal interest rate with the imputed average interest rate.

  PublisherDOI

• Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Sub-Saharan Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2024-06-13 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: This study updates the initial COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2020 by providing 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: First, we aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aimed to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and used Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t-test to assess whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling 6-month window of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to 10 was insignificant for the entire sample period. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate remained below 1 case per 100,000 population for well over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold for its classification as a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic ended in SSA by the time the WHO made its declaration.

  PublisherDOI

• Opioid-Related Mortality Across US Farming Counties: The Role of Economic Vulnerability Versus Pharmaceutical Marketing (Preprint)

  2024-12-17

  preprintOpen access

  <sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> Opioid-related mortality remains a critical public health issue in the United States, particularly in rural areas. This study examines the determinants of age-adjusted opioid death rates in U.S. farming counties, focusing on the roles of economic deprivation and pharmaceutical marketing in rural farm communities. </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> We evaluate two competing hypotheses: (1) that economic vulnerability, as captured by the “deaths of despair” framework, drives opioid-related mortality, and (2) that increased reliance on and promotion of opioids by pharmaceutical companies contributes significantly to the crisis. </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> : We use a double-hurdle model to analyze county-level data on age-adjusted opioid death rates from 2007, 2012, and 2017, focusing on the share of farmland operated by Limited Resource Farmers, and pharmaceutical company payments to physicians. Data sources include the CDC Wonder database, ProPublica’s Dollars for Docs, and the U.S. Census of Agriculture. Regional dummy variables allow for exploring spatial differences, with the Basin and Range region serving as the reference category. </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title> Findings reveal that economic vulnerability plays a significant role in opioid-related mortality. The share of farmland operated by Limited Resource Farmers is positively associated with age-adjusted opioid death rates, with elasticities changing from 0.0707 in 2007 to 0.0532 in 2012 and turning slightly negative in 2017. This trend suggests that as the opioid epidemic spread, the relative influence of economic deprivation in farming counties was diluted. Conversely, the elasticity of county-level opioid-related mortality with respect to pharmaceutical payments to physicians is not statistically significant, failing to support the hypothesis that pharmaceutical marketing drives the crisis. </sec> <sec> <title>CONCLUSIONS</title> Economic vulnerability, particularly among Limited Resource Farmers, is a key driver of opioid-related mortality in U.S. farming counties, supporting the “deaths of despair” framework. The lack of significant effects for pharmaceutical payments suggests a limited role for physician-targeted marketing in this context. These findings emphasize the need for interventions addressing economic instability in farming communities and tailoring regional responses to the opioid epidemic. Future research should explore additional factors, including healthcare access and mental health resources, to deepen understanding and inform more effective policies. </sec> <sec> <title>CLINICALTRIAL</title> Opioid Mortality, Farming Counties, Limited Resource Farmers, Economic Vulnerability, Pharmaceutical Marketing, Deaths of Despair, Rural America </sec>

  PublisherDOI

• Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2024-03-20 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. METHODS: In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023. RESULTS: The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

  PublisherDOI

• Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2024-03-20 · 5 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

  PublisherDOI

• An international benchmark for wind plant wakes from the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

  Journal of Physics Conference Series · 2024-06-01 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract This article introduces the first benchmark study within the International Energy Agency Wind Task 57 framework, focusing on wind plant wakes. Leveraging data from the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN), the benchmark aims to assess the accuracy of simulation tools in modeling wind plant wakes and their impact on the downstream flow under diverse inflow conditions. The AWAKEN field campaign, conducted in Oklahoma from 2022 to 2024, provides unprecedented observations of wind plant-atmosphere interactions, thus offering a large dataset to validate numerical models of different complexity. The benchmark will include three phases—code calibration, blind comparison, and iteration—allowing participants to refine their numerical models based on the feedback from the benchmark team. This article describes the benchmark case study selected from observations providing details on atmospheric conditions, wake evidence, and wind turbine operation. The benchmark’s structure and timeline, along with the expected publication of results, are discussed as well. This collaborative effort aims to enhance the accuracy of wind plant wake simulations, thus contributing to the improvement of wind energy production estimates.

  PublisherDOI

• Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2024-03-20 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. RESULTS: The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

  PublisherDOI

• South Asia’s COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment

  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2024-06-13 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS: In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Andrew Schmitz

  University of Florida

  127 shared

• Grigorios Livanis

  Ohio University

  81 shared

• Matthew Salois

  75 shared

• Troy G. Schmitz

  71 shared

• Christopher Davis

  Endo Pharmaceuticals (United States)

  65 shared

• James L. Seale

  62 shared

• Allen M. Featherstone

  Kansas State University

  61 shared

• James F. Oehmke

  52 shared

Education

• Ph.D., Agricultural Economics

  Purdue University

  1987

Awards & honors

• McKethan-Matherly fellow in the Economics Department at the…
• Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Outstanding J…
• American Agricultural Economics Association Quality of Resea…
• Quality of Communication Award from the American Agricultura…
• Southern Agricultural Economics Association's Lifetime Achie…