About

James Bushnell is a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Davis, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He holds a Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley, along with a Master's degree in Operations Research from Berkeley and a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Prior to joining UC Davis, he spent 15 years as the Research Director of the University of California Energy Institute in Berkeley and two years as the Cargill Chair in Energy Economics at Iowa State University. Professor Bushnell has long been actively involved in energy and environmental policy. Since 2002, he has served as a member of the Market Surveillance Committee of the California Independent System Operator and has advised the California Air Resources Board on emissions trading and climate policies. His research focuses on energy and environmental economics, industrial organization, regulation, and energy policy. He teaches courses in intermediate microeconomics, energy economics, and graduate industrial organization.

Research topics

• Economics
• Natural resource economics
• Engineering
• Environmental economics
• Business
• Environmental science
• Microeconomics
• Physics
• Electrical engineering
• Transport engineering
• Econometrics

Selected publications

• Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Policy: An Application to the US Inflation Reduction Act

  Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy · 2025-01-01

  article1st authorCorresponding

  In recent years, the analysis of US climate policy on the electricity sector has predominantly deployed electricity planning or capacity expansion models that use deterministic or equilibrium optimization methods. Although uncertainty in key input assumptions is considered, it is usually restricted to scenario analysis. In this study, we combine time-series econometric forecasting methods with an equilibrium electricity system-expansion model. The goal is to produce statistically rigorous distributions of outcomes rather than rely upon individually selected scenarios. We apply these techniques to the case of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the context of the western US electricity grid. The most significant power sector financial incentives are tax credits applied to eligible zero-carbon and storage resources. Our results indicate that the impact of the IRA, in terms of additional investment in low-carbon resources, depends heavily on the realization of key exogenous variables. However, the net effect of the IRA is to sharply narrow the range of future carbon emissions, largely by eliminating states of the world where investment in natural gas resources would otherwise be optimal.

  PublisherDOI

• An Economic Perspective on the EPA’s Clean Power Plan — Cross-State Coordination Key to Cost-Effective CO₂ Reductions

  WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks · 2025-05-01

  book-chapter
  PublisherDOI

• Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Policy: An Application to the US IRA

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Electric vehicle managed charging experiment

  AEA Randomized Controlled Trials · 2024-07-11

  dataset
  PublisherDOI

• Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Policy: An Application to the US IRA

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2024-08-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  In recent years the analysis of US climate policy on the electricity sector has predominantly deployed electricity planning or capacity expansion models that use deterministic or equilibrium optimization methods.While uncertainty in key input assumptions is considered, it is usually restricted to scenario analysis.In this study we combine time-series econometric forecasting methods with an equilibrium electricity system-expansion model.The goal is to produce statistically rigorous distributions of outcomes, rather than rely upon individually selected scenarios.We apply these techniques to the case of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the context of the western US electricity grid.The most significant power sector financial incentives are tax credits applied to eligible zero-carbon and storage resources.Our results indicate that the impact of the IRA, in terms of additional investment in low-carbon resources, depends heavily on the realization of key exogenous variables.However, the net effect of the IRA is to sharply narrow the range of future carbon emissions, largely by eliminating states of the world where investment in natural gas resources would otherwise be optimal.

  PublisherDOI

• The Limits and Costs of Full Electrification

  Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · 2024-01-01 · 5 citations

  articleSenior authorCorresponding

  Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several underappreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals, and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. Although we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several underappreciated external costs. The credibility and eventual success of decarbonization efforts will be enhanced by foreseeing and ideally avoiding predictable but nonobvious costs of promising abatement pathways. Thus, even with all of its promise, the degree of electrification may ultimately reach a limit.

  PublisherDOI

• Electric vehicle managed charging experiment

  AEA Randomized Controlled Trials · 2024-07-11

  dataset
  PublisherDOI

• The End of Neutrality? Fuel Standards, Technology Neutrality, and Stimulating the EV Market

  Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy · 2024-01-01

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• The role of modal substitution in rebound effects within US freight transportation

  Nature Energy · 2024-07-18 · 3 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Markets with Power: Competitive benchmark model of the Australian National Electricity Market

  2023-06-06

  article1st authorCorresponding

  In the late 2010s, a confluence of events contributed to unprecedented price increases and volatility in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We investigate to what extent market power contributed to elevated prices during this time. We base our analysis on a benchmark model of the NEM, which estimates counterfactual prices under the assumption of perfect competition. We construct marginal cost curves for each interval based on unit characteristics and fuel prices and produce a counterfactual competitive timeseries using actual demand. A comparison of actual market outcomes with our benchmark simulations suggests that, on average, a material fraction of regional prices are a result of market power. Depending on the region and time period, market power can account for 10% to 50% of wholesale prices. Moreover, our analysis indicates that market power tends to be most prevalent within the Queensland region and during high levels of regional demand across the NEM.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Severin Borenstein

  49 shared

• Catherine Wolfram

  Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  47 shared

• Frank A. Wolak

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  25 shared

• Carla Peterman

  19 shared

• Erin T. Mansur

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  16 shared

• David Rapson

  15 shared

• Jonathan E. Hughes

  World Conservation Monitoring Centre

  12 shared

• Christopher R. Knittel

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  9 shared