Andrei Shleifer

About

Andrei Shleifer is the John L. Loeb Professor of Economics at Harvard University. His professional contact information includes an office at Littauer Center M-9, with email ashleifer@harvard.edu and telephone number 617-495-5046. Additional support staff includes Polina Barker, located at Littauer Center M-10, with email polinabarker@fas.harvard.edu and telephone 617-495-4028. The webpage provides links to his CV, publications, working papers, presentations, books, classes, and contact information, indicating his active engagement in academic research and teaching. No further biographical or research details are provided in the text.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Artificial Intelligence
• Economics
• Mathematics
• Cognitive psychology
• Social psychology
• Econometrics
• Statistics
• Psychology

Selected publications

• Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

  American Economic Review · 2020 · 604 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding

  We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model.…

  DOI

• Memory, Attention, and Choice*

  The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2020 · 388 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding

  Abstract Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attributi…

  DOI

• Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles

  Journal of Political Economy · 2023-09-06 · 114 citations

  articleSenior author

  We construct an index of long-term expected earnings growth for S&P 500 firms and show that it has remarkable power to jointly predict future errors in expectations and stock returns, in both the aggregate market and the cross section. The evidence supports a mechanism whereby good news causes investors to become too optimistic about long-term earnings growth. This leads to inflated stock prices and, as beliefs are systematically disappointed, subsequent low returns in the aggregate market. Over…

  PublisherDOI

• Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation, and Beliefs

  The Review of Economic Studies · 2024-06-27 · 42 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about COVID we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event, different experiences compete for retrieval, and retrieved experiences are used to simulate the event based on how similar they are to it. The model predicts that different experiences interfere with each other in recall and that…

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• How People Use Statistics

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2023-08-01 · 24 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending “bottom up” to its salient features while neglecting other, potentially more relevant, ones. Only the statistics associated with salient features are used, others are neglected. The model unifies biases in judgments ab…

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Robert W. Vishny

  University of Chicago

  313 shared

• Rafael La Porta

  John Brown University

  245 shared

• Nicola Gennaioli

  245 shared

• Simeon Djankov

  London School of Economics and Political Science

  174 shared

• Florencio López‐de‐Silanes

  SKEMA Business School

  136 shared

• Edward L. Glaeser

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  124 shared

• Florencio López de Silanes

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  100 shared

• Pedro Bordalo

  91 shared

Education

• B.A., Economics

  Moscow State University

  1985

• M.A., Economics

  Harvard University

  1987

• Ph.D., Economics

  Harvard University

  1990

Awards & honors

• John Bates Clark medal of the American Economic Association…
• fellow of the Econometric Society
• fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
• fellow of the American Finance Association

Similar researchers at Harvard University

• Alberto Alesinah-161
• John Y. Campbellh-132
• Kenneth Rogoffh-127