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Boston University · Economics
Active 2011–2025
Adam Guren is an associate professor in the Department of Economics at Boston University. He is an empirical macroeconomist whose work primarily focuses on the intersection of the housing market, household finance, and the macroeconomy. His research includes topics such as house prices, the 2000s housing boom and bust, housing wealth effects, foreclosures and foreclosure policy, mortgage design, and macroprudential policy. Additionally, he has studied labor markets, trade, and macroeconomic issues. Professor Guren teaches Ph.D. and MA macroeconomic theory, topics in macroeconomics, and undergraduate housing policy. He is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His academic background includes a PhD from Harvard University. He is based at Boston University’s Arts & Sciences Economics department, where he contributes to research and teaching in macroeconomics and housing policy.
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Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?
American Economic Review · 2025-09-30 · 16 citations
Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature’s findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these disparate results hinge on the extent to which landlords absorb credit-driven demand, which depends on the degree of housing market segmentation. We develop a model that nests cases between the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation typically considered, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmentation, and use it to calibrate our model. We find credit standards played an important role, explaining 32 percent to 53 percent of the boom. (JEL E32, E44, G51, R21, R31)
Brian Melzer
Efraim Benmelech
Kellogg's (Canada)
Rebecca Diamond
Rose Tan
Stanford University
Andrea Weber
Ph.D.
Harvard University
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Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston
Working paper series · 2024-01-19
Boston’s high housing costs reflect a historic failure to build enough units to satisfy demand. Interest rates and construction costs have risen recently, and the flow of new market-rate residential housing projects has slowed. To spur more construction, the City of Boston is considering various policy options. Our committee was asked by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu to assess the market impacts of one of these options: real estate tax abatements. This report presents our analysis of the likely effects on the number of units constructed and the costs to taxpayers of various tax abatement alternatives.We do not recommend which policy, if any, the city should pursue; Boston officials are better positioned to assess whether the benefits of these policies warrant the costs to taxpayers.
Replication package for: The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 2023-01-17
This replication package includes code and data to reproduce the tables and figures in: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Adam Guren, and Timothy McQuade, "The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View", Review of Economic Studies
The 2000s Housing Cycle with 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
The Review of Economic Studies · 2023-04-18 · 35 citations
Abstract With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom–bust but a boom–bust–rebound. Using a spatial equilibrium regression in which house prices are determined by income, amenities, urbanization, and supply, we show that long-run city-level fundamentals predict not only 1997–2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom–bust–rebound. This evidence motivates our model of a cycle rooted in fundamentals. Households learn about fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic in the boom due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price–foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom–bust–rebound with a single shock and accounts quantitatively for the dynamics of prices, rents, and foreclosures in cities with the largest cycles. We draw implications for asset cycles more generally.
Replication package for: The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 2023-01-17
This replication package includes code and data to reproduce the tables and figures in: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Adam Guren, and Timothy McQuade, "The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View", Review of Economic Studies
Replication package for: The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 2023-01-17
This replication package includes code and data to reproduce the tables and figures in: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Adam Guren, and Timothy McQuade, "The 2000s Housing Boom With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View", Review of Economic Studies
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · 2022-03-01
Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment
Review of Financial Studies · 2022-07-05 · 51 citations
Abstract We introduce and quantify a new channel through which the housing market affects household spending: the home purchase channel. Households spend on average $8,000 more on home-related durables and home improvements in the 2 years following a home purchase. Expenditures on nondurables and durables unrelated to the home remain unchanged or decrease modestly. The home purchase channel played a substantial role in the Great Recession, accounting for one-third of the decline in spending on home-related durables and home improvements from 2005 to 2010. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online
Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?
SSRN Electronic Journal · 2021-01-01 · 2 citations
The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
SSRN Electronic Journal · 2021-01-01 · 6 citations
Dayanand Manoli
Georgetown University