About
Bryan Grenfell is the Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor in the Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at Princeton University. He is a population biologist working at the interface between theoretical models and empirical data. His research focuses on the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly their epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics, as well as control strategies such as vaccination. His lab investigates the nonlinear spatio-temporal dynamics of acute immunizing infections, with an initial focus on measles, and explores the comparative dynamics of various pathogens including influenza, rotavirus, RSV, Norovirus, HIV, HCV, and veterinary morbilliviruses. Grenfell's work also encompasses phylodynamics, examining how pathogen phylogenies are influenced by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics across scales from individual hosts to entire populations. His recent research includes the dynamics of measles in different countries, the implications of vaccine refusal, the spatiotemporal dynamics of human influenza in the USA, and the linking of within-host and population dynamics of influenza across species. Additionally, his lab explores the epidemiological and evolutionary implications of novel influenza vaccines, as well as the population dynamics and control of rotavirus, HIV, Shigella, typhoid, and HFMD. His work aims to synthesize epidemic dynamics with the economic aspects of vaccination and to understand cross-scale pathogen dynamics, including the impact of human behavioral factors.
Research topics
- Medicine
- Virology
- Environmental health
- Political Science
- Biology
- Sociology
- Geography
- Computer Science
- Business
- Immunology
- Internal medicine
- Demography
- Engineering
- Finance
- Socioeconomics
- Data science
- Economics
- Nursing
- Public relations
- Advertising
- Internet privacy
Selected publications
Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes
Science · 2021 · 254 citations
- Immunology
- Biology
- Virology
Given vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Two critical issues arise: How timing of delivery of the second dose will affect infection dynamics and how it will affect prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a buildup of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose as compared with natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but that longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose and to ramp up vaccination efforts globally.
Science · 2020 · 2128 citations
- Sociology
- Geography
- Socioeconomics
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19
Science · 2020 · 460 citations
- Computer Science
- Political Science
- Business
Introduction to the article: As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic worsens, understanding the effectiveness of public messaging and large-scale social distancing interventions is critical. The research and public health response communities can and should use population mobility data collected by private companies, with appropriate legal, organizational, and computational safeguards in place. When aggregated, these data can help refine interventions by providing near real-time information about changes in patterns of human movement.
Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Science · 2020 · 337 citations
Senior authorCorresponding- Geography
- Environmental health
- Virology
Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
The COVID-19 pandemic: a letter to G20 leaders
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics · 2020 · 1 citations
- Political Science
- Political Science
- Virology
coronavirus; Covid-19
Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years
Science · 2020 · 328 citations
Senior authorCorresponding- Immunology
- Medicine
- Biology
The future trajectory of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases, given different assumptions regarding the protective efficacy and duration of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that variations in the immune response to primary SARS-CoV-2 infections and a potential vaccine can lead to markedly different immune landscapes and burdens of critically severe cases, ranging from sustained epidemics to near elimination. Our findings illustrate likely complexities in future COVID-19 dynamics and highlight the importance of immunological characterization beyond the measurement of active infections for adequately projecting the immune landscape generated by SARS-CoV-2 infections.
The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2020 · 599 citations
Senior authorCorresponding- Environmental health
- Medicine
- Biology
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
Recent grants
NIH · $1.1M · 2012
Frequent coauthors
- 467 shared
C. Jessica E. Metcalf
Princeton University
- 310 shared
Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Pennsylvania State University
- 259 shared
Cécile Viboud
- 185 shared
Virginia E. Pitzer
Yale University
- 155 shared
Edward C. Holmes
University of Sydney
- 136 shared
Jeremy Farrar
Wellcome Trust
- 112 shared
Michael J. Mina
- 109 shared
Chadi M. Saad-Roy
Labs
Education
- 1981
D. Phil.
University of York
- 1977
M.Sc., Biological Computation
University of York
- 1976
B.Sc., Zoology Department
Imperial College London
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