When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election

Social Science Quarterly · 2024-06-26 · 6 citations

Abstract Objective Scholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties. Methods We conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range. Results Intra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020. Conclusion While the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.

El Cuento del Destino: Latino Voters, Demographic Determinism, and the Myth of an Inevitable Democratic Party Majority

Political Science Quarterly · 2024-01-01 · 8 citations

Abstract According to the “demography as destiny” theory, growing minority populations (which predominantly support Democrats) and the declining White population (which mostly votes Republican) will move politics and policy in more progressive directions. Latino voters are central to this account, but our critical analysis argues that such demographic determinism, which we call el cuento del destino, should be reconsidered. First, we argue that an overinvestment in the demography as destiny narrative causes distortions in party strategies; Democrats have been overconfident, and Republicans underconfident, about their abilities to secure the support of Latino voters. We examine trends in Latino voting behavior and partisan affiliation during and after the Trump years to show how the demographic narrative drives both parties to adopt suboptimal electoral strategies. Second, this narrative may also have implications for democracy itself, because misunderstandings about demographic determinism have led some Republicans to mistakenly worry that free and fair elections will inevitably lead to their party's electoral oblivion. Third, we interrogate the assumptions of the demography as destiny narrative, arguing that the political implications of Latino population growth are unclear and that the nature of Latino identity remains an open question. We conclude by describing the likely future of the Latino electorate as one characterized by growing partisan and political heterogeneity—including greater support for conservative politics—and suggest how the field of Latino politics might better understand such dynamics.

Divided Images: How the English Perceive Nationhood and How This Shapes Voting and Opinion

PS Political Science & Politics · 2023-08-10 · 1 citations

Do people’s political beliefs alter the emphasis they place on different symbols when constructing their “personal” national identity (Cohen 1996)? Does the content of their national identity affect how they vote? These are the central questions we address in this article, focusing on England but using the United States as a comparative case to demonstrate common dynamics.

Replication Data for Divided Images: How the English Perceive Nationhood and How This Shapes Voting and Opinion

Harvard Dataverse · 2023-05-01 · 1 citations

This paper examines how the English ‘see’ their nation. Building on theories of “ethnosymbolism” (Smith 1998) and “nationalism from below” (Edensor 2002), we examine which national elements most resonate with survey respondents as distinctly English. In contrast to views of nationalism as handed down from above or reflecting ‘official’ constitutions and values, ‘national identity’ may emerge collectively as people form attachments to particular symbols and associate them with nationhood, all the while influencing peers. Symbols in turn may be refracted through lenses such as ideology, partisanship, religion, and ethnicity. This approach is distinct from work on boundary criteria; an individual may see the English accent as a unique feature of the nation, for example, without believing it is required for membership. We find that respondents do not agree on which images best represent the nation - such variations are shaped by ethnicity, party, ideology, and religion. In addition, certain symbolic attachments are associated with populist-right issue positions and voting behaviour, even after controlling for political measures. These findings have implications for debates about ethnic vs. civic understandings of nationalism and support the proposition that differences in national identity are more common within than across nations. This also suggests that ‘unofficial’ aspects of the nation (such as culture and landscape) can be a source of political division even if people are generally in agreement about ‘official’ national symbols. Lastly, we compare these findings to a sample of Americans using parallel questions, finding similar results.

Symposium on the Contemporary Politics of the United Kingdom: Introduction and Reflections

PS Political Science & Politics · 2023-08-10

Although my evidence is anecdotal and impressionistic, my sense is that political science teaching, research, and careers are less likely to involve UK politics and the Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom.

Replication Data for: Normalizing Diversity in Merit Review Forms

Harvard Dataverse · 2022-05-31

Replication material for Normalizing Diversity in Merit Review Forms. This paper is part of the PS Symposium on Diversity and Inclusion in Political Science.

CES 2020, Team Module of University of Texas, Austin (UTB)

Harvard Dataverse · 2022-04-26

This dataverse contains the data and supporting documents for the CES 2020 Team Module of the University of Texas, Austin. This project was supported by the National Science Foundation, Grant Number SES-1948863. NOTE: This university has two modules.

How do veterans view gun policies? Evidence from the Guns in American Life Survey

Social Science Quarterly · 2022-04-28 · 3 citations

Abstract Objective Do veterans of the U.S. armed forces, a population with unique knowledge of and experience with guns, have distinctive views of gun control policies? While veterans are commonly assumed to be conservatives and Republicans, an emerging body of work has begun to explore the complexities of their policy opinions, partisanship, and voting behaviors. Such work provides needed nuance about this symbolically and politically important group. Methods Using the Guns in American Life Survey (2018, n = 3103), we test whether veterans (with combat and noncombat experiences), family members of veterans, and nonveterans have different perspectives, even after taking into account factors such as gun ownership and partisanship. Results The findings indicate that veterans (and particularly combat veterans) are more supportive than nonveterans of expanding civilians' gun carrying rights. On the other hand, veterans with and without combat experience are more likely to favor banning AR15 and military‐style rifles and high‐capacity ammunition clips. Veterans are also more likely to favor a 14‐day waiting period for all gun purchases, but they do not have unique positions on mental health screening for gun purchases. Conclusion Taken together, these findings appear to reflect a veteran population that is positively disposed toward guns in general but also understands the destructive power of military‐style weapons.

Nationalism in the ‘Nation of Immigrants’: Race, Ethnicity, and National Attachment

The Forum · 2022-04-01 · 2 citations

Abstract This paper compares nationalist attitudes among Whites, Latinos, and African Americans. The research on nationalism and national attachment draws varied conclusions about how race and ethnicity structure such attitudes; some find that Whites have the strongest views, while others see more similarities than differences. Using the General Social Survey of 2014, we examine three separate dimensions of nationalism: American nationalism, American national identity, and American national pride. We test for differences across race and ethnicity as well as how such attitudes structure opinions about immigrants. Despite some expectations in the literature that views might vary by group, we generally find (albeit with some complexities) “minimal effects” of race and ethnicity. Latinos, Blacks, and Whites agree with the three nationalism measures at similar levels, despite the very different national histories of each group. This is consistent with work finding “a great deal of consensus on the norms, values, and behaviors that constitute American identity” (Schildkraut 2007. “Defining American Identity in the Twenty-First Century: How Much “There” Is There?”.” The Journal of Politics v69 (3): 597–615, 605). In addition, while nationalism is associated with immigration opinions, such effects are predominantly among Whites and African Americans and relatively weak for Latinos.

Normalizing Diversity in Merit Review Forms

PS Political Science & Politics · 2022-10-05 · 1 citations

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.