Hallucination, monofacts, and miscalibration: An empirical investigation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2026-02-19 · 1 citations

Hallucinated facts in large language models have recently been shown to obey a statistical lower bound determined by the monofact rate (related to the classical Good-Turing missing mass estimator) minus model miscalibration [A. T. Kalai, S. S. Vempala, “Calibrated language models must hallucinate” in Proceedings of the 56th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC) (New York, NY, USA, 2024), pp. 160–171]. We present empirical investigation of this three-way relationship in classical <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>n</mml:mi> </mml:math> -gram models and fine-tuned transformer models. By generating training data from Pareto distributions with varying shape parameters, we systematically control the monofact rate and establish its positive relationship with hallucination. To bridge theory and practice, we derive an empirical analog of the hallucination bound by replacing the population miscalibration term (Section 1.1) with an empirical bin-wise Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and confirm its practical viability. We then introduce selective upweighting—a simple yet effective technique that strategically repeats as little as 5% of training examples—to deliberately inject miscalibration into the model. This intervention reduces hallucination by up to 40%, challenging universal deduplication policies. Our experiments reveal a critical trade-off: selective upweighting maintains preinjection levels of accuracy while substantially reducing hallucination, whereas standard training gradually improves accuracy but fails to address persistently high hallucination, indicating an inherent tension in optimization objectives.

Model Agreement via Anchoring

Open MIND · 2026-02-26

Numerous lines of aim to control $\textit{model disagreement}$ -- the extent to which two machine learning models disagree in their predictions. We adopt a simple and standard notion of model disagreement in real-valued prediction problems, namely the expected squared difference in predictions between two models trained on independent samples, without any coordination of the training processes. We would like to be able to drive disagreement to zero with some natural parameter(s) of the training procedure using analyses that can be applied to existing training methodologies. We develop a simple general technique for proving bounds on independent model disagreement based on $\textit{anchoring}$ to the average of two models within the analysis. We then apply this technique to prove disagreement bounds for four commonly used machine learning algorithms: (1) stacked aggregation over an arbitrary model class (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the number of models $k$ being stacked) (2) gradient boosting (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the number of iterations $k$) (3) neural network training with architecture search (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the size $n$ of the architecture being optimized over) and (4) regression tree training over all regression trees of fixed depth (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the depth $d$ of the tree architecture). For clarity, we work out our initial bounds in the setting of one-dimensional regression with squared error loss -- but then show that all of our results generalize to multi-dimensional regression with any strongly convex loss.

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning for Large-Scale Tote Allocation in Human-Robot Collaborative Fulfillment Centers

Open MIND · 2026-02-27

Optimizing the consolidation process in container-based fulfillment centers requires trading off competing objectives such as processing speed, resource usage, and space utilization while adhering to a range of real-world operational constraints. This process involves moving items between containers via a combination of human and robotic workstations to free up space for inbound inventory and increase container utilization. We formulate this problem as a large-scale Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) task with high-dimensional state spaces and dynamic system behavior. Our method builds on recent theoretical advances in solving constrained RL problems via best-response and no-regret dynamics in zero-sum games, enabling principled minimax policy learning. Policy evaluation on realistic warehouse simulations shows that our approach effectively trades off objectives, and we empirically observe that it learns a single policy that simultaneously satisfies all constraints, even if this is not theoretically guaranteed. We further introduce a theoretical framework to handle the problem of error cancellation, where time-averaged solutions display oscillatory behavior. This method returns a single iterate whose Lagrangian value is close to the minimax value of the game. These results demonstrate the promise of MORL in solving complex, high-impact decision-making problems in large-scale industrial systems.

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning for Large-Scale Tote Allocation in Human-Robot Collaborative Fulfillment Centers

ArXiv.org · 2026-02-27

Optimizing the consolidation process in container-based fulfillment centers requires trading off competing objectives such as processing speed, resource usage, and space utilization while adhering to a range of real-world operational constraints. This process involves moving items between containers via a combination of human and robotic workstations to free up space for inbound inventory and increase container utilization. We formulate this problem as a large-scale Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) task with high-dimensional state spaces and dynamic system behavior. Our method builds on recent theoretical advances in solving constrained RL problems via best-response and no-regret dynamics in zero-sum games, enabling principled minimax policy learning. Policy evaluation on realistic warehouse simulations shows that our approach effectively trades off objectives, and we empirically observe that it learns a single policy that simultaneously satisfies all constraints, even if this is not theoretically guaranteed. We further introduce a theoretical framework to handle the problem of error cancellation, where time-averaged solutions display oscillatory behavior. This method returns a single iterate whose Lagrangian value is close to the minimax value of the game. These results demonstrate the promise of MORL in solving complex, high-impact decision-making problems in large-scale industrial systems.

Networked Information Aggregation via Machine Learning

Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics eBooks · 2026-01-01

We study a distributed learning problem in which learning agents are embedded in a directed acyclic graph (DAG). There is a fixed and arbitrary distribution over feature/label pairs, and each agent or vertex in the graph is able to directly observe only a subset of the features — potentially a different subset for every agent. The agents learn sequentially in some order consistent with a topological sort of the DAG, committing to a model mapping observations to predictions of the real-valued label. Each agent observes the predictions of their parents in the DAG, and trains their model using both the features of the instance that they directly observe, and the predictions of their parents as additional features. We ask when this process is sufficient to achieve information aggregation, in the sense that some agent in the DAG is able to learn a model whose error is competitive with the best model that could have been learned (in some hypothesis class) with direct access to all features, despite the fact that no single agent in the network has such access. We give upper and lower bounds for this problem for both linear and general hypothesis classes. Our results identify the depth of the DAG as the key parameter: information aggregation can occur over sufficiently long paths in the DAG, assuming that all of the relevant features are well represented along the path, and there are distributions over which information aggregation cannot occur even in the linear case, and even in arbitrarily large DAGs that do not have sufficient depth (such as a hub-and-spokes topology in which the spoke vertices collectively see all the features). We complement our theoretical results with a comprehensive set of experiments.

Model Agreement via Anchoring

ArXiv.org · 2026-02-26

Numerous lines of aim to control $\textit{model disagreement}$ -- the extent to which two machine learning models disagree in their predictions. We adopt a simple and standard notion of model disagreement in real-valued prediction problems, namely the expected squared difference in predictions between two models trained on independent samples, without any coordination of the training processes. We would like to be able to drive disagreement to zero with some natural parameter(s) of the training procedure using analyses that can be applied to existing training methodologies. We develop a simple general technique for proving bounds on independent model disagreement based on $\textit{anchoring}$ to the average of two models within the analysis. We then apply this technique to prove disagreement bounds for four commonly used machine learning algorithms: (1) stacked aggregation over an arbitrary model class (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the number of models $k$ being stacked) (2) gradient boosting (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the number of iterations $k$) (3) neural network training with architecture search (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the size $n$ of the architecture being optimized over) and (4) regression tree training over all regression trees of fixed depth (where disagreement is driven to 0 with the depth $d$ of the tree architecture). For clarity, we work out our initial bounds in the setting of one-dimensional regression with squared error loss -- but then show that all of our results generalize to multi-dimensional regression with any strongly convex loss.

Intersectional Fairness in Reinforcement Learning with Large State and Constraint Spaces

ArXiv.org · 2025-02-17

In traditional reinforcement learning (RL), the learner aims to solve a single objective optimization problem: find the policy that maximizes expected reward. However, in many real-world settings, it is important to optimize over multiple objectives simultaneously. For example, when we are interested in fairness, states might have feature annotations corresponding to multiple (intersecting) demographic groups to whom reward accrues, and our goal might be to maximize the reward of the group receiving the minimal reward. In this work, we consider a multi-objective optimization problem in which each objective is defined by a state-based reweighting of a single scalar reward function. This generalizes the problem of maximizing the reward of the minimum reward group. We provide oracle-efficient algorithms to solve these multi-objective RL problems even when the number of objectives is exponentially large-for tabular MDPs, as well as for large MDPs when the group functions have additional structure. Finally, we experimentally validate our theoretical results and demonstrate applications on a preferential attachment graph MDP.

Improving LLM Group Fairness on Tabular Data via In-Context Learning

Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI Ethics and Society · 2025-10-15 · 1 citations

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective on tabular prediction tasks in the low-data regime, leveraging their internal knowledge and ability to learn from instructions and examples. However, LLMs can fail to generate predictions that satisfy group fairness, that is, produce equitable outcomes across groups. Critically, conventional debiasing approaches for natural language tasks do not directly translate to mitigating group unfairness in tabular settings. In this work, we systematically investigate four empirical approaches to improve group fairness of LLM predictions on tabular datasets, including fair prompt optimization, soft prompt tuning, strategic selection of few-shot examples, and self-refining predictions via chain-of-thought reasoning. Through experiments on four tabular datasets using both open-source and proprietary LLMs, we show the effectiveness of these methods in enhancing demographic parity while maintaining high overall performance. Our analysis provides actionable insights for practitioners in selecting the most suitable approach based on their specific requirements and constraints.

Hallucination, Monofacts, and Miscalibration: An Empirical Investigation

ArXiv.org · 2025-02-11

Hallucinated facts in large language models (LLMs) have recently been shown to obey a statistical lower bound determined by the monofact rate (related to the classical Good-Turing missing mass estimator) minus model miscalibration (Kalai &amp; Vempala, 2024). We present the first empirical investigation of this three-way relationship in classical n-gram models and fine-tuned encoder-decoder Transformers. By generating training data from Pareto distributions with varying shape parameters, we systematically control the monofact rates and establish its positive relationship with hallucination. To bridge theory and practice, we derive an empirical analog of the hallucination bound by replacing the population miscalibration term (Section 2.1) with an empirical bin-wise KL divergence and confirm its practical viability. We then introduce selective upweighting -- a simple yet effective technique that strategically repeats as little as 5% of training examples -- to deliberately inject miscalibration into the model. This intervention reduces hallucination by up to 40%, challenging universal deduplication policies. Our experiments reveal a critical trade-off: selective upweighting maintains pre-injection levels of accuracy while substantially reducing hallucination, whereas standard training gradually improves accuracy but fails to address persistently high hallucination, indicating an inherent tension in optimization objectives.

Replicable Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation

ArXiv.org · 2025-09-10

Replication of experimental results has been a challenge faced by many scientific disciplines, including the field of machine learning. Recent work on the theory of machine learning has formalized replicability as the demand that an algorithm produce identical outcomes when executed twice on different samples from the same distribution. Provably replicable algorithms are especially interesting for reinforcement learning (RL), where algorithms are known to be unstable in practice. While replicable algorithms exist for tabular RL settings, extending these guarantees to more practical function approximation settings has remained an open problem. In this work, we make progress by developing replicable methods for linear function approximation in RL. We first introduce two efficient algorithms for replicable random design regression and uncentered covariance estimation, each of independent interest. We then leverage these tools to provide the first provably efficient replicable RL algorithms for linear Markov decision processes in both the generative model and episodic settings. Finally, we evaluate our algorithms experimentally and show how they can inspire more consistent neural policies.