Farmers agronomic management responses to extreme drought and rice yields in Bihar, India

Agricultural Water Management · 2025-09-25 · 2 citations

In 2022, the Indian state of Bihar experienced its sixth driest year in over a century. To document the consequences and farmer responses to the meteorological drought, real-time survey data was collected across 11 districts of Bihar. We then developed a causal machine learning model to quantify drought impacts on rice production and to characterize how access to affordable irrigation from electric pumps mitigated productivity losses. This model addresses the empirical challenge of conducting a counterfactual causal analysis when a factor like drought affects nearly all sampled farmers. In the 2022 event, drought led to rice acreage reduction, transplanting delays, damage to seedling nurseries, and higher use rates of supplemental irrigation. For fields that were planted, average yield losses from water stress were estimated as 0.94 t/ha (∼23 % yield loss) with these losses reduced by 0.3 t/ha in fields with access to electric tubewells. Agronomic management practices such as earlier transplanting were also identified as complementary strategies that increased the adaptation value of investments in irrigation. To reduce the impact of drought in Bihar, additional investments in electric irrigation infrastructure are needed along with focused extension efforts and decision support systems that empower farmers to make economically and sustainably rational use of available water resources to maintain yield and profitability. • Affordable irrigation is considered a panacea for recurrent droughts but not much known for extreme droughts. • In 2022, Bihar experienced a sixth driest agricultural season. • Causal machine learning framework allowed testing of drought impact on crop management and yields. • Affordable irrigation requires complementary agronomic services to deal with extreme droughts.

Data-driven strategies to improve nitrogen use efficiency of rice farming in South Asia

Nature Sustainability · 2025-01-06 · 35 citations

Abstract Increasing nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in agricultural production mitigates climate change, limits water pollution and reduces fertilizer subsidy costs. Nevertheless, strategies for increasing NUE without jeopardizing food security are uncertain in globally important cropping systems. Here we analyse a novel dataset of more than 31,000 farmer fields spanning the Terai of Nepal, Bangladesh’s floodplains and four major rice-producing regions of India. Results indicate that 55% of rice farmers overuse nitrogen fertilizer, and hence the region could save 18 kg of nitrogen per hectare without compromising rice yield. Disincentivizing this excess nitrogen application presents the most impactful pathway for increasing NUE. Addressing yield constraints unrelated to crop nutrition can also improve NUE, most promisingly through earlier transplanting and improving water management, and this secondary pathway was overlooked in the IPCC’s 2022 report on climate change mitigation. Combining nitrogen input reduction with changes to agronomic management could increase rice production in South Asia by 8% while reducing environmental pollution from nitrogen fertilizer, measured as nitrogen surplus, by 36%. Even so, opportunities to improve NUE vary within South Asia, which necessitates sub-regional strategies for sustainable nitrogen management.

A data-driven approach for devising and assessing precision nitrogen management strategies applied to wheat systems in India

Environmental Research Food Systems · 2025-10-28

Abstract Limiting nitrogen pollution from crop production is essential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and protecting aquatic ecosystems while maintaining food security. Precision nitrogen management (PNM) provides a conceptual framework for achieving yield goals while maintaining nitrogen pollution within planetary boundaries by matching fertilizer rates to specific production conditions. Nevertheless, PNM strategies for smallholder contexts like India, a global nitrogen pollution hotspot, have proven costly to implement and are often ineffective. By combining survey data of production practices from 8705 wheat fields with digital soil mapping, we develop a novel PNM strategy that ‘learns from landscapes’ to generate and evaluate novel decision logic for nitrogen management. With this approach, ex-ante simulations indicate that reductions of 9% in nitrogen use and 16% in N 2 O emissions can be achieved without compromising yields, saving US$ 28 million per year in subsidies for the Indian state of Bihar alone. In contrast, conventional soil test-based recommendations may increase nitrogen use by 5% without corresponding yield gains. Our method that leverages large- n survey data and predictive modeling may provide a scalable pathway for PNM in similarly complex crop production environments where field and management heterogeneity is high.

Context-dependent agricultural intensification pathways to increase rice production in India

Nature Communications · 2024-09-27 · 28 citations

Yield gap analysis is used to characterize the untapped production potential of cropping systems. With emerging large-n agronomic datasets and data science methods, pathways for narrowing yield gaps can be identified that provide actionable insights into where and how cropping systems can be sustainably intensified. Here we characterize the contributing factors to rice yield gaps across seven Indian states, with a case study region used to assess the power of intervention targeting. Primary yield constraints in the case study region were nitrogen and irrigation, but scenario analysis suggests modest average yield gains with universal adoption of higher nitrogen rates. When nitrogen limited fields are targeted for practice change (47% of the sample), yield gains are predicted to double. When nitrogen and irrigation co-limitations are targeted (20% of the sample), yield gains more than tripled. Results suggest that analytics-led strategies for crop intensification can generate transformative advances in productivity, profitability, and environmental outcomes.

Effect of conservation agriculture on soil fungal diversity in rice-wheat-greengram cropping system in eastern Indo-Gangetic plains of South Asia

Frontiers in Microbiology · 2024-10-15 · 4 citations

Introduction Conservation agriculture (CA) is emerging as an eco-friendly and sustainable approach to food production in South Asia. CA, characterized by reduced tillage, soil surface cover through retaining crop residue or raising cover crops, and crop diversification, enhances crop production and soil fertility. Fungal communities in the soil play a crucial role in nutrient recycling, crop growth, and agro-ecosystem stability, particularly in agricultural crop fields. Methods This study investigates the impact of seven combinations of tillage and crop residue management practices of agricultural production systems, including various tillage and crop residue management practices, on soil fungal diversity. Using the Illumina MiSeq platform, fungal diversity associated with soil was analysed. Results and discussion The results show that the partial CA-based (pCA) production systems had the highest number of unique operational taxonomic units (OTUs) (948 OTUs) while the conventional production system had the lowest number (665 OTUs). The major fungal phyla identified in the topsoil (0–15 cm) were Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Mortierellomycota, with their abundance varying across different tillage- cum -crop establishment (TCE) methods. Phylum Ascomycota was dominant in CA-based management treatments (94.9±0.62), followed by the partial CA (pCA)-based treatments (91.0 ± 0.37). Therefore, CA-based production systems play a crucial role in shaping soil fungal diversity, highlighting their significance for sustainable agricultural production.

Transitions to crop residue burning have multiple antecedents in Eastern India

Agronomy for Sustainable Development · 2024-11-07 · 8 citations

Abstract Far removed from the agricultural fire “hotspots” of Northwestern India, rice residue burning is on the rise in Eastern India with implications for regional air quality and agricultural sustainability. The underlying drivers contributing to the increase in burning have been linked to the adoption of mechanized (combine) harvesting but, in general, are inadequately understood. We hypothesize that the adoption of burning as a management practice results from a set of socio-technical interactions rather than emerging from a single factor. Using a mixed methods approach, a household survey ( n = 475) provided quantitative insights into landscape and farm-scale drivers of burning and was complemented by an in-depth qualitative survey ( n = 36) to characterize decision processes and to verify causal inferences derived from the broader survey. For communities where the combine harvester is present, our results show that rice residue burning is not inevitable. The decision to burn appears to emerge from a cascading sequence of events, starting with the following: (1) decreasing household labor, leading to (2) decreasing household livestock holdings, resulting in (3) reduced demands for residue fodder, incentivizing (4) adoption of labor-efficient combine harvesting and subsequent burning of loose residues that are both difficult to collect and of lower feeding value than manually harvested straw. Local demand for crop residues for livestock feeding plays a central role mediating transitions to burning. Consequently, policy response options that only consider the role of the combine harvester are likely to be ineffective. Innovative strategies such as the creation of decentralized commercial models for dairy value chains may bolster local residue demand by addressing household-scale labor bottlenecks to maintaining livestock. Secondary issues, such as timely rice planting, merit consideration as part of holistic responses to “bend” agricultural burning trajectories in Eastern India towards more sustainable practices.

Fixed Dome Type Biogas Plant for Digestion of Cattle Dung in Solid State

Journal of Agricultural Engineering (India) · 2024-05-10 · 1 citations

Family size biogas plants in rural India are fed with 1:1 mixture of cattle dung and water as substrate. Regular feeding of many of those plants is often suspended due to scarcity of water during summer season, rendering the plants non-operational. Besides inconvenience in mixing water and cattle dung, the watery digested slurry discharged from the biogas plants normally requires lot of time and space for drying before transportation to fields for use as manure. The fixed dome type family size biogas plant design has been modified for feeding of cattle dung in solid state (total solids contents 16-18%). The modified plant has been found working well throughout the country except hilly regions.

Demystifying the wheat (Triticum aestivum) yield penalty due to delay in sowing: Empirical evidence from eastern India

The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences · 2024-05-08 · 2 citations

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in Indo-Gangetic plain of eastern India is much less than its actual potential. Apart from several yield deterministic factors, late sowing of wheat is one of the major reasons for sub-optimal wheat yield. The persistent yield gap poses a threat to future food security of this region with a vast population that is growing rapidly. In the present research, an attempt was made to quantify and classify the yield losses in wheat due to late sowing which is prevalent in this part of India. On-farm participatory agronomic trial was conducted at 1073 plots in 3 districts of eastern India, 2 from Uttar Pradesh and 1 from the state of Bihar. The trial was conducted during four consecutive winter season from 2016–17 to 2019–20. Following a split-plot design, main plots were categorized based on wheat sowing time and sub-plots were classified depending on the wheat varietal class. A sample survey of randomly selected 629 wheat farmers was conducted in 2017–18 wheat season in these 3 districts. Results from the agronomic trial showed that wheat yield decreased by 58 kg/ha for every one-day delay in sowing. Moreover, the yield of long-duration improved wheat variety (HD-2967) was statistically same (P=0.479) compared to the most preferred short-duration variety (PBW-373) in a very late-sown scenario (late December). Farmers’ survey data reconfirmed that the wheat yield has a very strong negative correlation with the sowing dates, but the yield decline was statistically insignificant until mid-November. Wheat yield in this part of India can be adequately boosted if sowing time of wheat advances and adoption of long-duration improved wheat varieties improves.

Farmers Agronomic Management Responses to Extreme Drought and Rice Yields in Bihar, India

SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01

Rice residue burning trajectories in Eastern India: current realities, scenarios of change, and implications for air quality

Environmental Research Letters · 2023-11-06 · 5 citations

Abstract In 2019, the Government of India launched the National Clean Air Program to address the pervasive problem of poor air quality and the adverse effect on public health. Coordinated efforts to prevent agricultural burning of crop residues in Northwestern IGP (Indo-Gangetic Plain) have been implemented, but the practice is rapidly expanding into the populous Eastern IGP states, including Bihar, with uncertain consequences for regional air quality. This research has three objectives: (1) characterize historical rice residue burning trends since 2002 over space and time in Bihar State, (2) project future burning trajectories to 2050 under ‘business as usual’ and alternative scenarios of change, and (3) simulate air quality outcomes under each scenario to describe implications for public health. Six future burning scenarios were defined as maintenance of the ‘status quo’ fire extent, area expansion of burning at ‘business as usual’ rates, and a Northwest IGP analogue, of which both current rice yields and plausible yield intensification were considered for each case. The Community Earth System Model (CESM v2.1.0) was used to characterize the mid-century air quality impacts under each scenario. These analyses suggest that contemporary Bihar State burning levels contribute a small daily average proportion (8.1%) of the fine particle pollution load (i.e. PM 2.5 , particles ⩽2.5 μ m) during the burning months, but up to as much as 62% on the worst of winter days in Bihar’s capital region. With a projected 142% ‘business as usual’ increase in burned area extent anticipated for 2050, Bihar’s capital region may experience the equivalent of 30 PM 2.5 additional exceedance days, according to the WHO standard (24 h; exceedance level: 15 µ g m −3 ), due to rice residue burning alone in the October to December period. If historical burning trends intensify and Bihar resembles the Northwest States of Punjab and Haryana by 2050, 46 d would exceed the WHO standard for PM 2.5 in Bihar’s capital region.