Giulio De Leo
· Professor of Oceans, of Earth System Science and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the EnvironmentVerifiedStanford University · Environmental Science, Policy, and Management
Active 1993–2026
About
Giulio De Leo is a Professor of Oceans, of Earth System Science, and a Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University. He is a theoretical ecologist by training and vocation, focusing his research on the factors and processes that drive the dynamics of natural and harvested populations, with an emphasis on using this knowledge to inform practical management. Since joining Stanford, his research has concentrated on the resilience of natural and managed ecosystems to natural and anthropogenic stressors, environmental shocks, and climate change. He studies resilience from two contrasting perspectives: on one hand, examining populations that demonstrate resilience despite efforts to control or eradicate them, such as parasitic and infectious diseases; on the other hand, working to understand how to enhance the resilience of marine populations of commercial or conservation interest against harvesting, environmental shocks, and climate change. His work spans theoretical and applied problems, including the conservation of the European eel, sustainable management of the abalone fishery in Baja California, biocontrol of schistosomiasis in Western Africa, and exploring the relationship between resource exploitation, infectious diseases, and poverty traps. De Leo co-founded the Stanford Program for Disease Ecology, Health, and the Environment, and the Stanford Disease Ecology in a Changing World initiative, as well as the Stanford Human and Planetary Health Center, with the goal of discovering ecological solutions to improve human wellbeing and environmental health.
Research topics
- Geography
- Ecology
- Biology
- Economics
- Environmental resource management
- Computer Science
- Business
- Medicine
- Environmental planning
- Natural resource economics
- Geology
- Agroforestry
- Immunology
- Microeconomics
- Development economics
- Environmental science
- Ethnology
- Pathology
- History
- Archaeology
- Psychology
- Virology
- Psychiatry
- Forestry
Selected publications
Environmental Research Health · 2026-04-27
articleOpen accessAbstract Schistosomiasis remains a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in low-and-middle-income countries. In Brazil, control measures have reduced the disease’s prevalence, creating low-endemic areas. However, environmental and climate dynamics, coupled with inadequate urbanization, pose risks of re-emergence. The middle Paranapanema basin, São Paulo state, exemplifies such a region. Here, the presence of Biomphalaria snail species ( B. glabrata, B. straminea , and B. tenagophila ), inadequate sanitation, and environmental changes signal potential schistosomiasis resurgence. This study aimed to develop a methodological framework to better understand schistosomiasis transmission mechanisms in low-endemic areas. It integrated demographic, environmental, malacological, and climatic data to identify transmission risk areas. The framework comprised a spatial hydrological model to assess fecal-contaminated water bodies, an exploratory spatial model for transmission hotspots, and snail dispersal analysis within drainage networks, incorporating climate projections. The methodology used geoprocessing tools to analyze hydrological, demographic, malacological, and climatic datasets. A spatial hydrological model combined sewage treatment and population density data with digital elevation models to identify potential transmission foci. Snail occurrence and schistosomiasis cases were spatially analyzed, with climate indices (1951–2022) providing rainfall trend projections. Land use datasets facilitated host habitat assessments, and outputs correlated potential foci with disease incidence. Results revealed that streams near urban areas with high concentrations of blackwater were associated with schistosomiasis cases. Streams hosting B. glabrata upstream had the strongest association with disease, while mixed-species habitats underscored hydrological connectivity’s role. Urban and agricultural land-use areas overlapped with snail habitats, identifying high-risk zones. Climate projections indicated increasing extreme rainfall events, enhancing flooding and erosion, which may facilitate snail dispersal and extend schistosomiasis foci downstream. Effluent from municipalities like Ourinhos could intensify contamination, impacting neighboring areas like Salto Grande. The findings emphasize integrating hydrological, climatic, and ecological perspectives into schistosomiasis control strategies. Simple hydrological models assessing fecal-contaminated water bodies provide valuable insights for sanitation policies, and climate-related snail dispersal scenarios highlight emerging risks in connected areas. Addressing these challenges is crucial for eliminating schistosomiasis, particularly in low-endemic regions. This study’s novel integrated hydrological–spatial models, based on freely available data, offer reproducible methods for identifying schistosomiasis transmission risks and guiding surveillance and control efforts in similar settings across Brazil.
Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment · 2026-04-01
articleProceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · 2026-02-11
articleOpen accessSenior authorDisease ecology has focused greatly on determining how changes to biodiversity may drive infectious disease risk for humans. Fencing off experimental areas (exclosures) has been a common experimental approach to assess how removing large-bodied hosts may affect disease risk, especially with tick-borne pathogens (TBPs). However, exclosure experiments have found conflicting results based on the experiment's scale, with smaller exclosures tending to increase tick densities inside the exclosure and larger exclosures tending to decrease tick densities inside. Previously, we have lacked a unifying theoretical framework able to reconcile the results of exclosure experiments across spatial scales. We present a spatially explicit model of TBP risk incorporating tick dispersal by small transmission-competent mammal hosts who can enter the exclosure and by large transmission-incompetent mammal hosts excluded from the exclosure. Our model reproduces the scale-dependence and spatial patterning observed in past exclosure experiments while elucidating their causal mechanisms. Specifically, the modeled exclosures produce high densities of infected ticks near their boundaries, with the densities decreasing towards the exclosure's centre. Empirical results have found lower tick densities at the exclosure's edge than its centre, a pattern we demonstrate can also be produced if we additionally allow ticks in their free-living questing stage to disperse.
Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-02-07 · 4 citations
articleOpen accessCommunity scientists provide essential support for understanding social-ecological systems. Here we analyze how community scientists work alongside institutions to study, manage, and protect these systems. Through interviews conducted in 2023 and 2024 in a coastal community in California, USA, we developed a conceptual framework showing how community scientists contribute to three main social-ecological processes: generating new knowledge, providing education to the community, and supporting enforcement of conservation regulations. Our analysis reveals that community scientists serve as boundary spanners, stepping in to help when government agencies and other institutions lack sufficient staff or resources. While community scientists effectively support environmental research and management by serving as additional observers in the field, their dynamic role raises important questions about relying on volunteers to fill institutional capacity gaps. These findings offer practical insights for improving how researchers and government agencies can work with community scientists to address environmental challenges in social-ecological systems. Community scientists help governmental agencies and institutions to fill capacity gaps by supporting environmental research, education, and enforcement activities, serving as additional observers in the field, according to an analysis that combines semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025-06-12 · 3 citations
reviewOpen accessSenior authorCorrespondingBACKGROUND: Water resources development (WRD), specifically infrastructural man-made water bodies such as dams and irrigation schemes, are built to improve water supply, provide energy, and enhance food security. However, dams and irrigation schemes may lead to a dramatic increase in the prevalence of schistosomiasis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a scoping review of WRD impacts on schistosomiasis transmission risk in Africa using electronic databases including Scopus, Web of Science, and grey literature. From 1483 retrieved records, we assessed 186 full-text papers and identified 122 articles covering 54 dams and irrigation schemes in 32 African countries. We found that, although the relationship between WRD and schistosomiasis transmission risk is well-documented in the scientific literature, the vast majority of the approximately 1,600 medium- to large-sized dams currently operating in endemic regions of Africa lack before-and-after prevalence data necessary to evaluate their actual impact on schistosomiasis transmission. Our analysis revealed that rigorous epidemiological data to assess WRD's effects exist for only 11 dams across 9 countries. Additionally, only a limited number of studies provided information on schistosomiasis control methods, surveillance, or monitoring for WRD. Few countries have implemented engineering and biological snail control measures, some of which have proven effective, enabling us to identify successful interventions employed at various stages of the WRD lifecycle. Lastly, to assess these measures in detail, we selected case studies from Africa that illustrate the success and challenges of schistosomiasis control with regard to WRD, thus gaining insights of the global relevance of lessons learnt for the future development of water resources. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis highlighted that an integrated and coordinated approach is vital for the successful control of schistosomiasis transmission risk associated with Water Resources Development. We provide key recommendations which could be adopted by the Continental Africa Water Investment Programme (AIP) with the ultimate goal of decreasing prevalence and moving towards elimination.
Effects of anthropogenic noise on marine mammal abundances informed by mixed methods
npj Ocean Sustainability · 2025-04-05
articleOpen accessSenior authorThis mixed-methods study examined the decline of a Harbor Seal (Phoca vitulina) colony’s abundance in Pacific Grove, California, USA, documented by community scientists. We combined generalized additive modeling (GAM) of abundance trends from 2003 to 2023 with qualitative analysis of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) obtained through interviews. LEK identified various anthropogenic disturbances that may have contributed to the colony’s decline. Statistical analysis revealed that, in 2022 and 2023, Harbor Seal abundance was 29.81% lower than expected, given the availability of prey fish in their forage range. Notably, roadwork near the colony during the 2022 pupping season likely impacted reproductive success and reduced habitat suitability, potentially impacting abundance. This study underscores the demographic impacts of human disturbances on marine mammals, the effectiveness of mixed-methods and community science in ecological research, and the critical need to mitigate disturbances to protect sensitive marine mammal populations, especially during critical periods like pupping seasons.
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025-01-15
preprintOpen accessAbstract Pf bacteriophages, lysogenic viruses that infect Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa), are implicated in the pathogenesis of chronic Pa infections; phage-infected (Pf+) strains are known to predominate in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) who are older and have more severe disease. However, the transmission patterns of Pf underlying the progressive dominance of Pf+ strains are unclear. In particular, it is unknown whether phage transmission commonly occurs horizontally between bacteria within the airway via viral particles or if Pf+ bacteria are mostly acquired via new Pseudomonas infections. Here, we have studied Pa genomic sequences from 3 patient cohorts totaling 663 clinical isolates from 105 pwCF. We identify Pf+ isolates and analyze transmission patterns of Pf within patients between genetically similar groups of bacteria called “clone types”. We find that Pf is predominantly passed down vertically within Pa lineages and rarely via horizontal transfer between clone types within the airway. Conversely, we find extensive evidence of Pa superinfection by a new, genetically distinct Pa that is Pf+. Finally, we find that clinical isolates show reduced activity of the type IV pilus and reduced susceptibility to Pf in vitro. These results cast new light on the transmission of virulence-associated phages in the clinical setting.
Ecosphere · 2025-08-01
articleOpen accessAbstract Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) face numerous risks to population recovery from infectious disease, shark attacks, and biotoxins. Recently, the most significant contributor to fatal infectious disease in sea otters has been acanthocephalan peritonitis (AP) caused by Profilicollis altmani . Despite the importance of AP‐associated otter mortality, long‐term and seasonal risks for spillover of this parasite from its avian definitive hosts (seabirds and shorebirds) and crustacean intermediate hosts, Pacific mole crabs ( Emerita analoga ), are poorly resolved. We analyzed a 30‐year dataset of sea otter strandings ( n = 4460 cases) within the extant southern sea otter range to assess the contributions of temporal, demographic, geographic, and environmental risk factors to the prevalence of AP in southern sea otters. We found the incidence of AP was driven by high prevalence in immature otters near or in Morro and Monterey Bays, primarily in the late spring. The seasonal fluctuations in AP prevalence aligned closely with the presence of Pacific mole crabs in the gastrointestinal tracts of stranded otters. For Monterey Bay otters, AP prevalence was also higher during El Niño years. Long‐term trend analyses suggest that seasonal, demographic, and geographic patterns of AP prevalence in southern sea otters have shifted. Southern sea otter population recovery efforts can be informed by long‐term monitoring that assesses the evolving risks of AP and other sources of mortality.
Remote Sensing · 2025-10-30 · 2 citations
articleOpen accessSenior authorAccurate mapping of forest canopy height is essential for monitoring forest structure, assessing biodiversity, and informing sustainable management practices. However, obtaining high-resolution canopy height data across large tropical landscapes remains challenging and prohibitively expensive. While machine learning approaches like Random Forest have become standard for predicting forest attributes from remote sensing data, deep learning methods remain underexplored for canopy height mapping despite their potential advantages. To address this limitation, we developed a rapid, automatic, scalable, and cost-efficient deep learning framework that predicts tree canopy height at fine-grained resolution (30 × 30 m) across Indonesian Borneo’s tropical forests. Our approach integrates diverse remote sensing data, including Landsat-8, Sentinel-1, land cover classifications, digital elevation models, and NASA Carbon Monitoring System airborne LiDAR, along with derived vegetation indices, texture metrics, and climatic variables. This comprehensive data pipeline produced over 300 features from approximately 2 million observations across Bornean forests. Using LiDAR-derived canopy height measurements from ~100,000 ha as training data, we systematically compared multiple machine learning approaches and found that our neural network model achieved canopy height predictions with R2 of 0.82 and RMSE of 4.98 m, substantially outperforming traditional machine learning approaches such as Random Forest (R2 of 0.57–0.59). The model performed particularly well for forests with canopy heights between 10–40 m, though systematic biases were observed at the extremes of the height distribution. This framework demonstrates how freely available satellite data can be leveraged to extend the utility of limited LiDAR coverage, enabling cost-effective forest structure monitoring across vast tropical landscapes. The approach can be adapted to other forest regions worldwide, supporting applications in ecological research, conservation planning, and forest loss mitigation.
Journal of Infection and Public Health · 2025-05-31 · 2 citations
articleOpen accessSenior authorBACKGROUND: Estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR) for emerging diseases is elusive due to the presence of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections and variable testing capacity. IFR estimates are also affected by region-specific differences in sampling regimes, demographics, and healthcare resources. METHODS: Here we present a novel regression approach using population testing and readily available case fatality rates (CFR) to estimate the IFR during an outbreak. The approach is based on few assumptions and can be used for a wide range of emerging diseases. We validate the use of the method using commonly reported COVID-19 testing data. RESULTS: Our new statistical approach reveals a conservative global IFR of 0.90 % (CI: 0.70 %, 1.16 %) for COVID-19 across the 139 countries affected before May 2020. Deviation of countries' reported CFR from the estimator did not correlate with demography, per capita GDP, or healthcare access and quality, suggesting variation is due to differing testing regimes or reporting guidelines by country. CONCLUSIONS: This method can be used retrospectively or for future disease outbreaks when other data are limited.
Recent grants
NSF · $2.5M · 2020–2026
NSF · $162k · 2020–2024
NSF · $470k · 2014–2018
Frequent coauthors
- 343 shared
Susanne H. Sokolow
- 120 shared
Gilles Riveau
- 115 shared
Fiorenza Micheli
Stanford University
- 113 shared
Isabel J. Jones
- 106 shared
Andrew J. Chamberlin
Pacific University
- 85 shared
Marino Gatto
- 72 shared
Chelsea L. Wood
- 60 shared
Kevin D. Lafferty
United States Geological Survey
Labs
Not provided
Education
- 1993
PhD in Ecology, Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali
Università degli Studi di Parma
- 1989
bachelor and master degree in Environmental Engineering
Politecnico di Milano
- 1983
Diploma di Maturità Classica
Liceo Classico Paolo Sarpi
Awards & honors
- Stanford Program for Disease Ecology Health and the Environm…
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