About

Nicholas Muller is the Lester and Judith Lave Professor of Economics, Engineering, and Public Policy at the Tepper School of Business. His role involves engaging in research and teaching at the intersection of these disciplines, contributing to the school's focus on innovative and practical business education. As a faculty member, he is involved in shaping the strategic vision of the Tepper School, which emphasizes leadership in business, technology, and analytics. His work supports the school's mission to lead in areas such as artificial intelligence for business, economic prosperity, and entrepreneurial pursuits, aligning with the school's broader strategic plan for 2024-2030.

Research topics

• Engineering
• Natural resource economics
• Ecology
• Geography
• Environmental science
• Environmental health
• Political Science
• Waste management
• Economics
• Meteorology
• Medicine
• Environmental protection
• Biology
• Agricultural economics
• Business

Selected publications

• CLIMATE POLICY, AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS, AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

  Climate Change Economics · 2026-03-20

  article1st authorCorresponding

  This paper examines how policies intended to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions affect air pollution exposure, mortality risk, and monetary benefits across the income distribution in the United States (U.S.). We use an energy system optimization model (ESOM) to translate several climate change mitigation policies into CO 2 -equivalent emission reductions. The ESOM also tracks emissions of three air pollutants: fine particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides. The AP3 model links changes in emissions of local air pollutants to county-level ambient concentrations, exposure, mortality risk, and monetary damages. We present three central results. First, the monetary benefits from reduced air pollution exposure of the climate policies amount to less than 1% of real per capita income. Second, the monetary benefits are progressively distributed. Specifically, counties with a 10% higher real median income level tend to incur between 5% and 6% lower benefits from the carbon tax, the net zero scenario, and the clean electricity standard in 2030. These estimated elasticities are closer to zero in 2040 and 2050. Third, benefits are distributed progressively in the northeast and the western census regions, and regressively in the Midwest. In the southeast, benefits and income are uncorrelated.

  PublisherDOI

• Measuring the Impact of Data Centers in the United States Economy: Monetary Damage from Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2026-01-01

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Costs, CO2 Emissions, and Air Quality Impacts of CO2 Capture and Sequestration for Integrated Steel Mills in the United States

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2026-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Intended and Unintended Consequences of Facility-Level Mandatory CSR Disclosure: Evidence From the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program

  Journal of Accounting Auditing & Finance · 2026-01-22

  article

  We study the real effects of the first nationwide mandatory CSR disclosure regulation in the U.S., the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Starting in 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions by facilities emitting more than 25,000 metric tons of CO 2 per year. We construct a novel set of emission data on power plants around the regulation to examine the causal effects of GHGRP in the utility industry. Using a difference-in-difference research design, we find that while as intended by the policy power plants that are subject to the GHGRP reduced carbon dioxide emission rates by 7%, the reduction in emission no longer holds at the firm level. Specifically, we detect evidence of strategic behavior by firms that own both GHGRP plants and non-GHGRP plants. Presumably unintended by the policy, such firms strategically reallocate emissions between plants to reduce GHGRP-disclosed emissions. This evidence suggests that the reporting program is costly to the affected firms which reacted both positively towards the policy objectives and also somewhat negatively at the same time, not as intended by the policymakers. We also provide evidence of a stronger reduction in plant emissions by publicly traded firms, which is consistent with prior literature supporting shareholder pressure as a primary channel through which mandatory Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reporting programs affect firm behavior.

  PublisherDOI

• Using public health nutrition to help reduce table sugar consumption in East Arnhem Land

  Proceedings of The Nutrition Society · 2025-04-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Between 2015 and 2017, East Arnhem Land recorded the highest rates of avoidable deaths in Australia. (1) In 2018, coronary heart disease emerged as the leading cause of avoidable death among First Nations people, with poor diet contributing to 50% of the total burden. (2) Yolŋŋu people in East Arnhem Land are aware of the health challenges and actively seek community-led support from organisations to create health-promoting food environments. The Arnhem Land Aboriginal Progress Corporation (ALPA), governed by a Yolŋu Board of directors, operate six grocery stores in East Arnhem Land. Through analysis of store sales data more than half of total sugar sales are attributed to table sugar. Despite the successful implementation of strong nutrition policies across their retail stores, which have significantly reduced the sale of sugary products like soft drinks, lollies, and cordial, there has been limited success with reducing purchasing of table sugar. Overall, free sugars from all sugar products purchased remains above the World Health Organization’s recommendations. To tackle this public health issue, the Heart Foundation, in collaboration with ALPA and Miwatj Health Aboriginal Corporation, have embarked on a project aimed at reducing table sugar consumption in East Arnhem Land. Consultations with community members and health professionals in Galiwin ‘ku and Milingimbi were held from July 15 to 19, 2024, to assist in the co-design of culturally relevant nutrition resources. Microsoft Teams was utilised for recording and transcription, and artificial intelligence software for thematic analysis. The consultations explored community perceptions of table sugar, its use, and its health impacts. It was identified that sugar consumption is deeply ingrained, particularly in tea drinking, where large quantities of sugar are consumed daily. The addictive nature of sugar was acknowledged, making it challenging to reduce intake. Thematic analysis revealed that while there is an awareness of sugar’s harmful effects, such as its links to heart disease and diabetes, challenges like food insecurity, addiction, and ingrained consumption habits persist. Community members preferred resources that are culturally sensitive, employ positive storytelling methods, and use both modern (Youtube, TikTok, Instagram and Facebook) and traditional (posters in stores and clinics) media. Suggested strategies included emphasising gradual reduction techniques and involving community to enhance the authenticity of resources. Draft resources will be further refined through a second round of community consultations in late October 2024, with final versions distributed by the end of the year and accessible on the Heart Foundation’s website. Success will be measured through ALPA store sales data on table sugar, website engagement, and social media metrics. This initiative seeks to promote sustainable behaviour change and improve health outcomes in East Arnhem Land.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The Role of Hydrogen in Decarbonizing U.S. Iron and Steel Production

  Environmental Science & Technology · 2025-03-06 · 17 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  This study investigates the role of hydrogen as a decarbonization strategy for the iron and steel industry in the United States (U.S.) in the presence of an economy-wide net zero CO2 emissions target. Our analysis shows that hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2DRI) provides a cost-effective decarbonization strategy only under a relatively narrow set of conditions. Using today’s best estimates of the capital and variable costs of alternative decarbonized iron and steelmaking technologies in a U.S. economy-wide simulation framework, we find that carbon capture technologies can achieve comparable decarbonization levels by 2050 and greater cumulative emissions reductions from iron and steel production at a lower cost. Simulations suggest hydrogen contributes to economy-wide decarbonization, but H2DRI is not the preferred use case for hydrogen in most scenarios. The average abatement cost for U.S. iron and steel production could be as low as $70/tonne CO2 with existing technologies plus carbon capture, while the cost with H2DRI rises to over $500/tonne CO2. We also find that IRA tax credits are insufficient to spur hydrogen use in steelmaking in our model and that a green steel production tax credit would need to be as high as $300/tonne steel to lead to sustained H2DRI use.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Socially vulnerable communities face disproportionate exposure and susceptibility to U.S. wildfire and prescribed burn smoke

  Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-03-08 · 8 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract While air pollution from most U.S. sources has decreased, emissions from wildland fires have risen. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that wildfire and prescribed burn smoke caused $200 billion in health damages in 2017, associated with 20,000 premature deaths. Nearly half of this damage came from wildfires, predominantly in the West, with the remainder from prescribed burns, mostly in the Southeast. Our analysis reveals positive correlations between smoke exposure and various social vulnerability measures; however, when also considering smoke susceptibility, these disparities are systematically influenced by age. Senior citizens, who are disproportionately White, represented 16% of the population but incurred 75% of the damages. Nonetheless, within most age groups, Native American and Black communities experienced the greatest damages per capita. Our work highlights the extraordinary and disproportionate effects of the growing threat of fire smoke and calls for targeted, equitable policy solutions for a healthier future.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010.

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-06-01

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Despite the central role of firewood in the development of the early American economy, prices for this energy fuel are absent from official government statistics and the scholarly literature.This paper presents the most comprehensive dataset of firewood prices in the United States compiled to date, encompassing over 6,000 price quotes from 1700 to 2010.Between 1700 and 2010, real firewood prices increased by between 0.2% and 0.4%, annually, and from 1800 to the Civil War, real prices increased especially rapidly, between 0.7% and 1% per year.Rising firewood prices and falling coal prices led to the transition to coal as the primary energy fuel.Between 1860 and 1890, the income elasticity for firewood switched from 0.5 to -0.5.Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s.The value of firewood fell to less than 5% of GDP by the 1880s.Prior estimates of firewood output in the 19th century significantly underestimated its value.Finally, incorporating the new estimates of firewood output into agricultural production leads to higher estimates of agricultural productivity growth prior to 1860 than previously reported in the literature.

  PublisherDOI

• Polluting Public Funds: The Effect of Environmental Regulations on Municipal Bonds

  Management Science · 2025-09-24

  articleSenior author

  We present two findings on how environmental policy uncertainty impacts municipal bond returns. First, yields increase after a new pollution standard is proposed but decrease after this standard is finalized. Second, after annual announcements of compliance status, yields fall for counties that remain in compliance but increase for newly noncompliant counties. We present suggestive evidence linking these short-run municipal bond market reactions to long-run changes in pollution and housing prices. Our findings suggest that increases in either regulatory stringency or uncertainty over future environmental policy increase the cost of municipal debt raised to fund schools, hospitals, and critical infrastructure. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendices and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02340 .

  PublisherDOI

• Geographic Resolution in Environmental Policy: EPA’s Shift from Regions to Counties Under the Clean Air Act

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-01-01

  reportSenior author

  A large literature uses nonattainment status under the U.S. Clean Air Act (CAA) to measure regulatory stringency and to instrument for air pollution in studies of the impact of the CAA on health and other endpoints. Since 1978 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulated ambient air quality at the county level; however, prior to 1978 nonattainment status was imposed on Air Quality Control Regions, contiguous counties that comprise an airshed. This is not the definition of nonattainment used in the literature. Using county-level data, we examine the impacts of EPA’s definition of nonattainment status for TSP, CO, ozone, and SO2 in 1972 on ambient air quality and manufacturing employment between 1969 and 1976 and EPA’s definition of nonattainment in 1978 on air quality and manufacturing employment between 1975 and 1988. Nonattainment status in 1972 had no significant impact on either ambient TSP or on the ratio of dirty manufacturing to total employment between 1969 and 1976. We do, however, find significant impacts on ambient TSP using 1978 nonattainment status, and significant impacts of TSP, CO, ozone and SO2 nonattainment in 1978 on the fraction of employment in dirty manufacturing industries from 1975 to 1988. We discuss the implications of these findings for EPA’s decision regarding the geographic level at which to regulate air pollution.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Erin T. Mansur

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  49 shared

• Stephen P. Holland

  Yale University

  42 shared

• Andrew J. Yates

  40 shared

• Michael R. Levitt

  North Shore University Hospital

  25 shared

• Shirley K. DeSimone

  25 shared

• Albert S. Benight

  Portland State University

  25 shared

• Johannes A. Pardoen

  25 shared

• John A. DeSimone

  25 shared